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 Election 2006 Projections

 


 


Georgia

Latest News and Updates


  • CD-12:  Insider Advantage:  Barrow 42%, Burns 39% - 11/01/06
  • Gov:  Strategic Vision:  Perdue 52%, Taylor 36% - 11/01/06
  • Gov:  Mason-Dixon:  Perdue 53%, Taylor 36% - 10/31/06
  • Gov:  Strategic Vision:  Perdue 51%, Taylor 32%, Hayes 9% - 10/25/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Perdue +29 (down 3) - 10/23/06
  • Gov:  Strategic Vision:  Perdue 50%, Taylor 36% - 10/18/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Perdue 58%, Taylor 32% - 10/17/06
  • Replaced TBC with Stuart Rothenberg in House race pundit projections - 10/16/06
  • Gov:  Strategic Vision:  Perdue 51%, Taylor 38% - 09/27/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Perdue +32 (up 2) - 09/25/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Perdue +30 (up 9) - 08/27/06
  • Gov:  Strategic Vision:  Perdue 54%, Taylor 41% - 08/22/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Perdue 53%, Taylor 39% - 08/04/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Perdue +21 (down 11) - 07/23/06
  • Tracking initiated after primaries - 07/20/06

    Conservative Ranking


    Georgia is the 17th most conservative state, voting 14.1% more Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Georgia is trending REPUBLICAN.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    Georgia ranks 14th among the 50 states.

    Senate Race


    No race in 2006

    Governor's Race


    Incumbent:  GOP incumbent Sonny Perdue is seeking a second term in 2006.  He faced only token primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Sonny Perdue - Incumbent  
  • Ray McBerry

    Democrat Candidates

  • Bill Bolton
  • Cathy Cox - Georgia Secretary of State
  • Mac McCarley
  • Mark Taylor - Georgia Lt. Governor  

    Libertarian Candidate

  • Garrett Micheal Hayes - Vice Chair, Georgia Libertarian Party  

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Sonny Perdue +18.4

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Perdue Taylor
        Strategic Vision 11/01 52% 36%
        Mason-Dixon 10/31 53% 36%

    Projection Data

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls 16.5 80% 13.2
        Incumbent approval 29 15% 4.4
        State partisanship 16.6 5% 0.8

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        November 1, 2006 Perdue +18.4 Strong GOP Hold
        October 31, 2006 Perdue +19.6 Strong GOP Hold
        October 25, 2006 Perdue +23.2 Strong GOP Hold
        October 23, 2006 Perdue +21.2 Strong GOP Hold
        October 18, 2006 Perdue +21.6 Strong GOP Hold
        October 17, 2006 Perdue +21.2 Strong GOP Hold
        September 27, 2006 Perdue +16.0 Strong GOP Hold
        September 25, 2006 Perdue +16.4 Strong GOP Hold
        August 27, 2006 Perdue +16.1 Strong GOP Hold
        August 22, 2006 Perdue +14.8 Mod GOP Hold
        August 4, 2006 Perdue +12.0 Mod GOP Hold
        July 23, 2006 Perdue +12.4 Mod GOP Hold
        July 20, 2006 Perdue +14.0 Mod GOP Hold
        Preliminary ----- Strong GOP Hold

    Competitive House Races


    District 8


    Incumbent:  Democrat Jim Marshall is up for a 3rd term 2006.  He faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • "Mac" Collins - Former Georgia Representative to the U.S. House  
  • James Neal Harris

    Democrat Candidates

  • Jim Marshall - Incumbent  

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Jim Marshall +3.3

    Pundit Predictions

      Pundit Date Prediction
        Stuart Rothenberg   10/13 Marshall by 2 (Tilt DEM)
        Charlie Cook 6/29 Marshall by 4 (Lean DEM)
        Larry Sabato 6/29 Marshall by 4 (Lean DEM)
        Congressional Quarterly 7/10 Marshall by 4 (Lean DEM)

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Collins Marshall
                 

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Pundit predictions 3.5 95% 3.3
        Head-to-head polls    up to 50%   
        District partisanship -1.0 5% -0.1

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        October 16, 2006 Marshall +3.3 Weak DEM Hold
        July 20, 2006 Marshall +4.2 Weak DEM Hold
        Preliminary ----- Weak DEM Hold


    District 12


    Incumbent:  Democrat John Barrow is seeking re-election for the first time in 2006.  He faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Max Burns - Former Georgia Representative to the U.S. House  

    Democrat Candidates

  • John Barrow - Incumbent  

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  John Barrow +3.6

    Pundit Predictions

      Pundit Date Prediction
        Stuart Rothenberg   10/13 Barrow by 2 (Tilt DEM)
        Charlie Cook 6/29 Barrow by 4 (Lean DEM)
        Larry Sabato 6/29 Barrow by 4 (Lean DEM)
        Congressional Quarterly 7/10 Barrow by 4 (Lean DEM)

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Burns Barrow
        Insider Advantage 11/01 39% 42%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Pundit predictions 3.5 70% 2.5
        Head-to-head polls 3.0 25% 0.8
        District partisanship 7.0 5% 0.4

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        November 1, 2006 Barrow +3.6 Weak DEM Hold
        October 16, 2006 Barrow +3.7 Weak DEM Hold
        August 9, 2006 Barrow +3.4 Weak DEM Hold
        July 20, 2006 Barrow +4.2 Weak DEM Hold
        Preliminary ----- Weak DEM Hold

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Jack Kingston (R)-inc vs. Jim Nelson (D)
  • District 2:  Sanford Bishop (D)-inc vs. Bradley Hughes (R)
  • District 3:  Lynn Westmoreland (R)-inc vs. Mike McGraw (D)
  • District 4:  Hank Johnson (D) vs. Catherine Davis (R)
  • District 5:  John Lewis (D)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 6:  Thomas Price (R)-inc vs. Steve Sinton (D)
  • District 7:  John Linder (R)-inc vs. Allan Burns (D)
  • District 9:  Nathan Deal (R)-inc vs. John Bradbury (D)
  • District 10:  Charlie Norwood, Jr. (R)-inc vs. Jerry Holley (D)
  • District 11:  Phil Gingrey (R)-inc vs. Patrick Pillion (D)
  • District 13:  David Scott (D) vs. Deborah Huneycutt (R)

    Election Timeline


  • April 28, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • July 18, 2006 - Primary elections
  • August 8, 2006 - Primary runoff elections
  • November 7, 2006 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 2 GOP
        Representatives 7 GOP, 6 DEM
      State Government
        Governor GOP
        Lt. Governor DEM
        State Senate - GOP control 34 GOP, 22 DEM
        State House - GOP control 101 GOP, 78 DEM, 1 IND

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Sonny Perdue (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2006
  • Lt. Governor:  Mark Taylor (D) - 2nd term, running for Governor in 2006
  • Senior Senator:  Saxby Chambliss (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2008
  • Junior Senator:  Johnny Isakson (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2010
  • House District 1:  Jack Kingston (R) - 7th term
  • House District 2:  Sanford Bishop (D) - 7th term
  • House District 3:  Lynn Westmoreland (R) - 1st term
  • House District 4:  Cynthia McKinney (D) - 1st term
  • House District 5:  John Lewis (D) - 10th term
  • House District 6:  Thomas Price (R) - 1st term
  • House District 7:  John Linder (R) - 7th term
  • House District 9:  Nathan Deal (R) - 7th term
  • House District 10:  Charlie Norwood, Jr. (R) - 6th term
  • House District 11:  Phil Gingrey (R) - 2nd term
  • House District 13:  David Scott (D) - 2nd term

    Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop:  Hawaii
    Previous Stop:  Florida

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

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