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 Election 2006 Projections

 


 


Hawaii

Latest News and Updates


  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Akaka +3 (down 1) - 10/27/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Lingle +40 (down 3) - 10/23/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Akaka +4 (down 7) - 10/07/06
  • Gov:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak GOP Hold to Strong GOP Hold - 09/25/06
  • Tracking initiated and primary winners posted - 09/20/06

    Conservative Ranking


    Hawaii is the 10th least conservative state, voting 11.2% less Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Hawaii is trending REPUBLICAN.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    Hawaii ranks 21st among the 50 states.

    Senate Race


    Incumbent:  DEM incumbent Daniel Akaka is up for a fourth term in 2006.  He faced strong primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Cynthia Thielen - Hawaii State Representative  

    Democrat Candidates

  • Daniel Akaka - Incumbent  
  • Edward Case - Hawaii Representative to the U.S. House
  • Brian Evans

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Daniel Akaka 23.3

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Thielen Akaka
        Rasmussen** 08/06 30% 58%
      ** - poll measured Akaka against Jerry Coffee

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls 28.0 80% 22.4
        Incumbent approval 3 15% 0.5
        State partisanship 8.7 5% 0.4

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        October 27, 2006 Akaka +23.3 Strong DEM Hold
        October 7, 2006 Akaka +23.4 Strong DEM Hold
        September 25, 2006 Akaka +24.5 Strong DEM Hold
        Preliminary ----- Strong DEM Hold

    Governor's Race


    Incumbent:  GOP incumbent Linda Lingle is running for re-election for the first time in 2006.  She faced only token primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Linda Lingle - Incumbent  
  • George Berish

    Democrat Candidates

  • Brickman Galuteria - Chair, Hawaii Democratic Party
  • Randall Iwase - Chair, Hawaii State Labor Relations Board  
  • Harry Kim - Mayor of Hawaii County
  • Frank DeLima
  • William Aila, Jr.
  • Scott Belford

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Linda Lingle +36.8

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Lingle Iwase
        SurveyUSA 05/18 66% 27%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls 39.0 80% 31.2
        Incumbent approval 40 15% 6.0
        State partisanship -8.7 5% -0.4

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        October 23, 2006 Lingle +36.8 Strong GOP Hold
        September 25, 2006 Lingle +37.2 Strong GOP Hold
        Preliminary ----- Weak GOP Hold

    Competitive House Races


    No competitive races in 2006

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Neil Abercrombie (D)-inc vs. Noah Hough, II (R)
  • District 2:  OPEN:  Mazie Hirono (D) vs. Robert Hogue (R)

    Election Timeline


  • July 25, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • September 23, 2006 - Primary elections
  • November 7, 2006 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 2 DEM
        Representatives 2 DEM
      State Government
        Governor GOP
        Lt. Governor - tied to Governor GOP
        State Senate - DEM control 5 GOP, 20 DEM
        State House - DEM control 10 GOP, 41 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Linda Lingle (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2006
  • Lt. Governor:  James "Duke" Aiona (R) - 1st term, tied to Governor
  • Senior Senator:  Daniel Inouye (D) - 8th term, up for re-election in 2010
  • Junior Senator:  Daniel Akaka (D) - 3rd term, up for re-election in 2006
  • House District 1:  Neil Abercrombie (D) - 9th term
  • House District 2:  Edward Case (D) - 2nd term (running for Senate)

    Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop:  Idaho
    Previous Stop:  Georgia

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

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