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 Election 2006 Projections

 


 


Idaho

Latest News and Updates


  • Gov:  Mason-Dixon:  Otter 44%, Brady 43% - 10/30/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Risch +8 (up 2) - 10/23/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Risch +6 (down 15) - 09/25/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Risch +21 (down 6) - 08/27/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Risch +26 (down 1) - 07/23/06
  • Tracking initiated - 7/11/06

    Conservative Ranking


    Idaho is the 3rd most conservative state, voting 35.7% more Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Idaho is trending REPUBLICAN.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    Idaho ranks 11th among the 50 states.

    Senate Race


    No race in 2006

    Governor's Race


    OPEN SEAT:  Republican Jim Risch became Governor in May, 2006.  Former GOP Governor Dirk Kempthorne stepped down to become U.S. Secretary of the Interior.

    GOP Candidates

  • C.L. "Butch" Otter - Idaho Representative to the U.S. House  
  • Dan Adamson
  • Walt Bayes
  • Jack Alan Johnson

    Democrat Candidates

  • Jerry Brady - Publisher  
  • Lee Chaney, Sr.

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Butch Otter +3.2

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Otter Brady
        Mason-Dixon 10/30 44% 43%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls 1.0 90% 0.9
        Incumbent approval 8 5% 0.4
        State partisanship 38.1 5% 1.9

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        October 30, 2006 Otter +3.2 Weak GOP Hold
        October 23, 2006 Otter +31.1 Strong GOP Hold
        September 25, 2006 Otter +31.0 Strong GOP Hold
        August 27, 2006 Otter +31.8 Strong GOP Hold
        July 23, 2006 Otter +32.0 Strong GOP Hold
        July 11, 2006 Otter +32.1 Strong GOP Hold
        Preliminary ----- Strong GOP Hold

    Competitive House Races


    No competitive races in 2006

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  OPEN:  Bill Sali (R) vs. Larry Grant (D) - possible competitive race
  • District 2:  Mike Simpson (R)-inc vs. Jim Hansen (D)

    Election Timeline


  • March 17, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • May 23, 2006 - Primary elections
  • November 7, 2006 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 2 GOP
        Representatives 2 GOP
      State Government
        Governor GOP
        Lt. Governor GOP
        State Senate - GOP control 28 GOP, 7 DEM
        State House - GOP control 57 GOP, 13 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  James Risch (R) - partial term
  • Lt. Governor:  Mark Ricks (R) - partial term
  • Senior Senator:  Larry Craig (R) - 4th term, up for re-election in 2010
  • Junior Senator:  Michael Crapo (R) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2008
  • House District 1:  C.L. "Butch" Otter (R) - 2nd term (running for Governor)
  • House District 2:  Michael Simpson (R) - 4th term

    Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop:  Illinois
    Previous Stop:  Hawaii

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

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