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 Election 2006 Projections

 


 


Illinois

Latest News and Updates


  • Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
  • Gov:  Mason-Dixon:  Blagojevich 44%, Topinka 40% - 11/02/06
  • CD-8:  RATING CHANGE:  Mod DEM Hold to Weak DEM Hold - 10/31/06
  • CD-8:  Constituent Dynamics:  Bean 50%, McSweeney 45% - 10/31/06
  • CD-6:  Daily Herald:  Roskam 46%, Duckworth 42% - 10/30/06
  • CD-6:  Constituent Dynamics:  Duckworth 48%, Roskam 47% - 10/23/06
  • CD-8:  Daily Herald:  Bean 42%, McSweeney 39% - 10/30/06
  • Gov:  RATING CHANGE:  Mod DEM Hold to Weak DEM Hold - 10/30/06
  • Gov:  Research 2000:  Blagojevich 47%, Topinka 38% - 10/30/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA:  Blagojevich 44%, Topinka 34% - 10/24/06
  • CD-6:  Chicago Tribune:  Roskam 43%, Duckworth 39% - 10/23/06
  • CD-8:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak DEM Hold to Mod DEM Hold - 10/23/06
  • CD-8:  Chicago Tribune:  Bean 50%, McSweeney 31% - 10/23/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Blagojevich -21 (down 14) - 10/23/06
  • CD-8:  Pundit rating change - 10/21/06
  • CD-8:  Constituent Dynamics:  Bean 48%, McSweeney 45% - 10/21/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Blagojevich 44%, Topinka 36% - 10/20/06
  • CD-8:  Bennett Petts (D):  Bean 49%, McSweeney 33% - 10/17/06
  • Gov:  Tribune/WGN-TV:  Blagojevich 43%, Topinka 29% - 10/16/06
  • Replaced TBC with Stuart Rothenberg in House race pundit projections - 10/16/06
  • CD-6:  Constituent Dynamics:  Duckworth 47%, Roskam 47% - 10/13/06
  • CD-6:  Greenberg Quinlan (D):  Duckworth 51%, Roskam 46% - 10/13/06
  • CD-6:  Pundit rating change - 10/13/06
  • CD-8:  Pundit rating change - 10/13/06
  • Gov:  Mason-Dixon:  Blagojevich 47%, Topinka 37% - 09/26/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Blagojevich -7 (up 1) - 09/25/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA:  Blagojevich 45%, Topinka 39% - 09/21/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Blagojevich 48%, Topinka 36% - 09/13/06
  • Gov:  Tribune/WGN-TV:  Blagojevich 45%, Topinka 33% - 09/12/06
  • CD-6:  Constituent Dynamics:  Duckworth 47%, Roskam 46% - 09/07/06
  • CD-8:  Constituent Dynamics:  Bean 48%, McSweeney 45% - 09/07/06
  • Gov:  Research 2000:  Blagojevich 47%, Topinka 39% - 09/04/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Blagojevich -8 (down 1) - 08/27/06
  • CD-6:  Congressional Quarterly:  Leans GOP to No Clear Favorite - 08/14/06
  • Gov:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak DEM Hold to Mod DEM Hold - 08/10/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Blagojevich 45%, Topinka 37% - 08/10/06
  • CD-6:  RATING CHANGE:  possibly competitive to Weak GOP Hold - 08/09/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA:  Blagojevich 45%, Topinka 34% - 07/26/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Blagojevich -7 (up 1) - 07/23/06
  • Tracking initiated - 07/12/06

    Conservative Ranking


    Illinois is the 7th least conservative state, voting 12.8% less Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Illinois is trending DEMOCRAT.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    Illinois ranks 37th among the 50 states.

    Senate Race


    No race in 2006

    Governor's Race


    Incumbent:  Democrat Rod Blagojevich is running for re-election to a second term in 2006.  He faced no serious primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Judy Baar Topinka - Illinois State Treasurer  
  • Bill Brady - Illinois State Senator
  • Ron Gidwtiz - Former Head Illinois State Board of Education
  • Andy Martin
  • James Oberweis - Businessman

    Democrat Candidates

  • Rod Blagojevich - Incumbent  
  • Edwin Eisendrath

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Rod Blagojevich +4.2

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Topinka Blagojevich
        SurveyUSA 11/01 37% 45%
        Rasmussen 11/01 37% 44%
        Chicago Tribune 10/31 29% 44%
        Mason-Dixon 10/29 40% 44%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls 8.5 80% 6.8
        Incumbent approval -21 15% -3.2
        State partisanship 10.3 5% 0.5

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Blagojevich +4.2 Weak DEM Hold
        November 2, 2006 Blagojevich +3.6 Weak DEM Hold
        October 30, 2006 Blagojevich +4.6 Weak DEM Hold
        October 24, 2006 Blagojevich +5.8 Mod DEM Hold
        October 23, 2006 Blagojevich +5.0 Mod DEM Hold
        October 21, 2006 Blagojevich +7.1 Mod DEM Hold
        October 16, 2006 Blagojevich +7.5 Mod DEM Hold
        September 25, 2006 Blagojevich +7.1 Mod DEM Hold
        September 21, 2006 Blagojevich +6.9 Mod DEM Hold
        September 13, 2006 Blagojevich +7.8 Mod DEM Hold
        September 12, 2006 Blagojevich +7.3 Mod DEM Hold
        September 4, 2006 Blagojevich +5.7 Mod DEM Hold
        August 27, 2006 Blagojevich +6.2 Mod DEM Hold
        August 10, 2006 Blagojevich +6.4 Mod DEM Hold
        July 26, 2006 Blagojevich +2.6 Weak DEM Hold
        July 23, 2006 Blagojevich +1.3 Weak DEM Hold
        July 12, 2006 Blagojevich +1.2 Weak DEM Hold
        Preliminary ----- Weak DEM Hold

    Competitive House Races


    District 6


    OPEN SEAT:  GOP incumbent Henry Hyde is retiring at the end of his 16th term.  He is not seeking re-election in 2006.

    GOP Candidates

  • Peter Roskam - Illinois State Senator  

    Democrat Candidates

  • Tammy Duckworth - Iraq War Veteran/Double Amputee  

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Peter Roskam +1.0

    Pundit Predictions

      Pundit Date Prediction
        Stuart Rothenberg   10/13 Toss-up
        Charlie Cook 07/19 Toss-up
        Larry Sabato 11/06 Duckworth by 2 (Tilts DEM)
        Congressional Quarterly 08/14 Toss-up

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Roskam Duckworth
        Constituent Dynamics 10/26 47% 48%
        Daily Herald 10/24 46% 42%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Pundit predictions -0.5 45% -0.2
        Head-to-head polls 1.5 50% 0.8
        District partisanship 9.5 5% 0.5

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Roskam +1.0 Weak GOP Hold
        October 30, 2006 Roskam +1.2 Weak GOP Hold
        October 23, 2006 Roskam +1.5 Weak GOP Hold
        October 16, 2006 Roskam +0.7 Weak GOP Hold
        October 13, 2006 Roskam +1.0 Weak GOP Hold
        September 7, 2006 Roskam +0.6 Weak GOP Hold
        August 14, 2006 Roskam +2.2 Weak GOP Hold
        August 9, 2006 Roskam +3.0 Weak GOP Hold
        Preliminary ----- possibly competitive


    District 8


    Incumbent:  Democrat Melissa Bean seeks a second term in 2006.  She faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • David McSweeney - Businessman  
  • Ken Arnold
  • Robert Churchill
  • Aaron Lincoln
  • James Mitchell
  • Kathy Salvi

    Democrat Candidates

  • Melissa Bean - Incumbent  

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Melissa Bean +3.0

    Pundit Predictions

      Pundit Date Prediction
        Stuart Rothenberg   10/13 Bean by 2 (Tilts DEM)
        Charlie Cook 06/29 Bean by 4 (Leans DEM)
        Larry Sabato 10/13 Bean by 4 (Leans DEM)
        Congressional Quarterly 07/11 Bean by 4 (Leans DEM)

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date McSweeney Bean
        Constituent Dynamics 10/26 45% 50%
        Daily Herald 10/24 39% 42%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Pundit predictions 3.5 45% 1.6
        Head-to-head polls 4.0 50% 2.0
        District partisanship -11 5% -0.6

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Bean +3.0 Mod DEM Hold
        October 31, 2006 Bean +3.0 Mod DEM Hold
        October 23, 2006 Bean +6.5 Mod DEM Hold
        October 21, 2006 Bean +4.3 Weak DEM Hold
        October 17, 2006 Bean +4.8 Weak DEM Hold
        October 13, 2006 Bean +3.3 Weak DEM Hold
        September 7, 2006 Bean +1.6 Weak DEM Hold
        July 12, 2006 Bean +0.9 Weak DEM Hold
        Preliminary ----- Weak GOP Gain

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Bobby Rush (D)-inc vs. Jason Tabour (R)
  • District 2:  Jesse Jackson Jr. (D)-inc vs. Robert Belin (R)
  • District 3:  Daniel Lipinski (D)-inc vs. Ray Wardingley (R)
  • District 4:  Luis Gutierrez (D)-inc vs. Ann Melichar (R)
  • District 5:  Rahm Emanuel (D)-inc vs. Kevin White (R)
  • District 7:  Danny Davis (D)-inc vs. Charles Hutchinson (R)
  • District 9:  Jan Schakowsky (D)-inc vs. Michael Shannon (R)
  • District 10:  Mark Steven Kirk (R)-inc vs. Daniel Seals (D)
  • District 11:  Jerry Weller (R)-inc vs. John Pavich (D)
  • District 12:  Jerry Costello (D)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 13:  Judy Biggert (R)-inc vs. Joseph Shannon (D)
  • District 14:  Dennis Hastert (R)-inc vs. John Laesch (D)
  • District 15:  Tim Johnson (R)-inc vs. David Gill (D)
  • District 16:  Donald Manzullo (R)-inc vs. Richard Auman (D)
  • District 17:  OPEN:  Philip Hare (D) vs. Andrea Zinga (R)
  • District 18:  Ray Lahood (R)-inc vs. Steve Waterworth (D)
  • District 19:  John Shimkus (R)-inc vs. Danny Stover (D)

    Election Timeline


  • January 10, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • March 21, 2006 - Primary elections
  • November 7, 2006 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 2 DEM
        Representatives 9 GOP, 10 DEM
      State Government
        Governor DEM
        Lt. Governor - tied to Governor DEM
        State Senate - DEM control 27 GOP, 31 DEM, 1 IND
        State House - DEM control 53 GOP, 65 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Rod Blagojevich (D) - 1st term, up for election in 2006
  • Lt. Governor:  Pat Quinn (D) - 1st term, tied to Governor
  • Senior Senator:  Richard Durbin (D) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2008
  • Junior Senator:  Barack Obama (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2010
  • House District 1:  Bobby Rush (D) - 7th term
  • House District 2:  Jesse Jackson Jr. (D) - 6th term
  • House District 3:  Daniel Lipinski (D) - 1st term
  • House District 4:  Luis Gutierrez (D) - 7th term
  • House District 5:  Rahm Emanuel (D) - 2nd term
  • House District 6:  Henry Hyde (R) - 16th term (retiring)
  • House District 7:  Danny Davis (D) - 5th term
  • House District 8:  Melissa Bean (D) - 1st term
  • House District 9:  Jan Schakowsky (D) - 4th term
  • House District 10:  Mark Steven Kirk (R) - 3rd term
  • House District 11:  Jerry Weller (R) - 6th term
  • House District 12:  Jerry Costello (D) - 10th term
  • House District 13:  Judy Biggert (R) - 4th term
  • House District 14:  Dennis Hastert (R) - 10th term
  • House District 15:  Tim Johnson (R) - 3rd term
  • House District 16:  Donald Manzullo (R) - 7th term
  • House District 17:  Lane Evans (D) - 12th term
  • House District 18:  Ray Lahood (R) - 6th term
  • House District 19:  John Shimkus (R) - 5th term

    Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop: 
    Indiana
    Previous Stop:  Idaho

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

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