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 Election 2006 Projections

 


 


Indiana

Latest News and Updates


  • Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
  • CD-2:  Research 2000:  Donnelly 50%, Chocola 47% - 11/02/06
  • CD-8:  Constituent Dynamics:  Ellsworth 53%, Hostettler 43% - 10/31/06
  • CD-9:  Constituent Dynamics:  Hill 51%, Sodrel 43% - 10/31/06
  • CD-2:  Constituent Dynamics:  Donnelly 48%, Chocola 45% - 10/30/06
  • CD-8:  Pundit rating change - 10/27/06
  • CD-8:  Research 2000:  Ellsworth 50%, Hostettler 43% - 10/26/06
  • CD-9:  Research 2000:  Hill 47%, Sodrel 45% - 10/26/06
  • CD-9:  SurveyUSA:  Hill 47%, Sodrel 43% - 10/24/06
  • CD-2:  Research 2000:  Donnelly 45%, Chocola 40% - 10/19/06
  • CD-8:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak DEM Gain to Mod DEM Gain - 10/16/06
  • CD-8:  Indiana State University:  Ellsworth 55%, Hostettler 32% - 10/16/06
  • Replaced TBC with Stuart Rothenberg in House race pundit projections - 10/16/06
  • CD-2:  Pundit rating change - 10/13/06
  • CD-2:  Constituent Dynamics:  Donnelly 50%, Chocola 46% - 10/13/06
  • CD-8:  Pundit rating change - 10/13/06
  • CD-2:  Greenberg Quinlan (D):  Donnelly 52%, Chocola 36% - 10/12/06
  • CD-2:  Mercury Public Affairs (R):  Donnelly 45%, Chocola 44% - 10/12/06
  • CD-2:  Pundit rating change - 10/12/06
  • CD-8:  Pundit rating change - 10/12/06
  • CD-9:  SurveyUSA:  Hill 48%, Sodrel 46% - 10/10/06
  • CD-2:  Research 2000:  Donnelly 50%, Chocola 42% - 09/19/06
  • CD-2:  Constituent Dynamics:  Donnelly 52%, Chocola 40% - 09/14/06
  • CD-8:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain - 09/14/06
  • CD-8:  Constituent Dynamics:  Ellsworth 51%, Hostettler 45% - 09/14/06
  • CD-9:  Constituent Dynamics:  Hill 53%, Sodrel 42% - 09/14/06
  • CD-9:  Research 2000:  Hill 46%, Sodrel 40% - 09/13/06
  • CD-2:  Charlie Cook:  Leans GOP to Toss-up - 08/19/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Lugar +26 (down 10) - 08/18/06
  • CD-2:  RATING CHANGE:  possibly competitive to Weak DEM Gain - 08/09/06
  • Tracking initiated - 7/12/06

    Conservative Ranking


    Indiana is the 12th most conservative state, voting 18.2% more Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Indiana is trending REPUBLICAN.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    Indiana ranks 19th among the 50 states.

    Senate Race


    Incumbent:  GOP incumbent Richard Lugar seeks a 6th term in 2006.  He faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Richard Lugar - Incumbent  

    Democrat Candidates

  • Unopposed

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Richard Lugar +72.0

    Polling Data - no polls will be tracked on this race.

    Projection Data - Lugar is unopposed and is assured re-election by a wide margin.

    Governor's Race


    No race in 2006

    Competitive House Races


    District 2


    Incumbent:  GOP incumbent Chris Chocola is seeking a 3rd term 2006.  He faced only token primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Chris Chocola - Incumbent  
  • Tony Zirkle

    Democrat Candidates

  • Joseph Donnelly - 2004 Nominee  
  • Steve Francis

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Joseph Donnelly +1.9 - DEM pick-up

    Pundit Predictions

      Pundit Date Prediction
        Stuart Rothenberg   10/13 Donnelly by 4 (Lean DEM)
        Charlie Cook 09/07 Toss-up
        Larry Sabato 10/13 Donnelly by 4 (Lean DEM)
        Congressional Quarterly 10/12 Toss-up

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Chocola Donnelly
        Research 2000 10/31 47% 50%
        Constituent Dynamics 10/26 45% 48%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Pundit predictions -2.0 45% -0.9
        Head-to-head polls -3.0 50% -1.5
        District partisanship 11 5% 0.6

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Donnelly +1.9 Weak DEM Gain
        November 2, 2006 Donnelly +1.9 Weak DEM Gain
        October 30, 2006 Donnelly +2.4 Weak DEM Gain
        October 19, 2006 Donnelly +2.6 Weak DEM Gain
        October 13, 2006 Donnelly +3.1 Weak DEM Gain
        October 12, 2006 Donnelly +3.9 Weak DEM Gain
        October 7, 2006 Donnelly +4.2 Weak DEM Gain
        September 19, 2006 Donnelly +4.0 Weak DEM Gain
        September 14, 2006 Donnelly +1.8 Weak DEM Gain
        August 19, 2006 Donnelly +1.1 Weak DEM Gain
        August 9, 2006 Donnelly +0.6 Weak DEM Gain
        Preliminary ----- possibly competitive


    District 8


    Incumbent:  GOP incumbent John Hostettler is up for a 7th term 2006.  He faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • John Hostettler - Incumbent  

    Democrat Candidates

  • Brad Ellsworth - Vanderburgh County Sheriff  

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Brad Ellsworth +5.7 - DEM pick-up

    Pundit Predictions

      Pundit Date Prediction
        Stuart Rothenberg   10/13 Ellsworth by 8 (DEM Favored)
        Charlie Cook 09/07 Toss-up
        Larry Sabato 11/06 Ellsworth by 4 (Likely DEM)
        Congressional Quarterly 10/12 Ellsworth by 4 (Leans DEM)

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Hostettler Ellsworth
        Constituent Dynamics 10/26 43% 53%
        Research 2000 10/20 43% 50%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Pundit predictions -5.0 45% -2.3
        Head-to-head polls -8.5 50% -4.3
        District partisanship 16 5% 0.8

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Ellsworth +5.7 Mod DEM Gain
        October 31, 2006 Ellsworth +5.3 Mod DEM Gain
        October 27, 2006 Ellsworth +8.5 Mod DEM Gain
        October 26, 2006 Ellsworth +8.1 Mod DEM Gain
        October 16, 2006 Ellsworth +7.1 Mod DEM Gain
        October 16, 2006 Ellsworth +2.8 Weak DEM Gain
        October 13, 2006 Ellsworth +2.6 Weak DEM Gain
        October 12, 2006 Ellsworth +1.9 Weak DEM Gain
        September 14, 2006 Ellsworth +0.4 Weak DEM Gain
        July 11, 2006 Hostettler +1.3 Weak GOP Hold
        Preliminary ----- Weak GOP Hold


    District 9


    Incumbent:  GOP incumbent Mike Sodrel is seeking re-election for the first time in 2006.  He faced only token primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Mike Sodrel - Incumbent  
  • Sam Shultz

    Democrat Candidates

  • Baron Hill - Former Indiana Representative to the U.S. House  
  • Gretchen Clearwater
  • John Hockersmith
  • Lendall Terry

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Mike Sodrel +0.3

    Pundit Predictions

      Pundit Date Prediction
        Stuart Rothenberg   10/13 Hill by 2 (Tilt DEM)
        Charlie Cook 09/07 Toss-up
        Larry Sabato 11/06 Hill by 2 (Tilt DEM)
        Congressional Quarterly 07/11 Toss-up

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Sodrel Hill
        SurveyUSA 11/02 46% 44%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Pundit predictions -1.0 70% -0.7
        Head-to-head polls 2.0 25% 0.5
        District partisanship 9.5 5% 0.5

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Sodrel +0.3 Weak GOP Hold
        October 31, 2006 Hill +2.3 Weak DEM Gain
        October 26, 2006 Hill +1.2 Weak DEM Gain
        October 24, 2006 Hill +0.9 Weak DEM Gain
        October 16, 2006 Hill +0.4 Weak DEM Gain
        October 13, 2006 Hill +0.5 Weak DEM Gain
        October 10, 2006 Hill +3.1 Weak DEM Gain
        September 14, 2006 Hill +4.1 Weak DEM Gain
        September 13, 2006 Hill +1.5 Weak DEM Gain
        July 11, 2006 Hill +0.1 Weak DEM Gain
        Preliminary ----- Weak GOP Hold

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Peter Visclosky (D)-inc vs. Mark Leyva (R)
  • District 3:  Mark Souder (R)-inc vs. Thomas Hayhurst (D)
  • District 4:  Stephen Buyer (R)-inc vs. David Sanders (D)
  • District 5:  Dan Burton (R)-inc vs. Katherine Carr (D)
  • District 6:  Mike Pence (R)-inc vs. Barry Welsh (D)
  • District 7:  Julia Carson (D)-inc vs. Eric Dickerson (R) - possible competitive race

    Election Timeline


  • February 17, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • May 2, 2006 - Primary elections
  • November 7, 2006 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 1 GOP, 1 DEM
        Representatives 7 GOP, 2 DEM
      State Government
        Governor GOP
        Lt. Governor - tied to Governor GOP
        State Senate - GOP control 33 GOP, 17 DEM
        State House - GOP control 52 GOP, 48 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Mitch Daniels, Jr. (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2008
  • Lt. Governor:  Becky Skillman (R) - 1st term, tied to Governor
  • Senior Senator:  Richard Lugar (R) - 5th term, up for re-election in 2006
  • Junior Senator:  Evan Bayh (D) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2010
  • House District 1:  Peter Visclosky (D) - 11th term
  • House District 2:  Chris Chocola (R) - 2nd term
  • House District 3:  Mark Souder (R) - 6th term
  • House District 4:  Stephen Buyer (R) - 7th term
  • House District 5:  Dan Burton (R) - 12th term
  • House District 6:  Mike Pence (R) - 3rd term
  • House District 7:  Julia Carson (D) - 5th term
  • House District 8:  John Hostettler (R) - 6th term
  • House District 9:  Mike Sodrel (R) - 1st term

    Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop:  Iowa
    Previous Stop:  Illinois

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

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