Political Weblog | 2006 Projections | 2006 Formula | 2006 Election Calendar | 2004 Results | EP Polls | The Blogging Caesar Bio

.
 Election 2006 Projections

 


 


Iowa

Latest News and Updates


  • Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
  • Gov:  Research 2000:  Culver 50%, Nussle 45% - 11/02/06
  • CD-1:  Pundit rating change - 11/01/06
  • CD-1:  Pundit rating change - 10/24/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Vilsack +11 (down 8) - 10/23/06
  • Gov:  Research 2000:  Culver 49%, Nussle 44% - 10/19/06
  • Gov:  Selzer and Co.:  Culver 46%, Nussle 39% - 10/16/06
  • Replaced TBC with Stuart Rothenberg in House race pundit projections - 10/16/06
  • CD-1:  RATING CHANGE:  Mod DEM Gain to Weak DEM Gain - 10/13/06
  • CD-1:  Bennett Petts (D):  Braley 48%, Whalen 37% - 10/13/06
  • CD-1:  Pundit rating change - 10/13/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Nussle 45%, Culver 44% - 10/10/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Vilsack +19 (up 11) - 09/25/06
  • Gov:  Selzer and Co.:  Culver 44%, Nussle 44% - 09/19/06
  • CD-1:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak DEM Gain to Mod DEM Gain - 09/19/06
  • CD-1:  Selzer and Co.:  Braley 44%, Whalen 37% - 09/19/06
  • Gov:  KCCI:  Culver 48%, Nussle 43% - 09/14/06
  • CD-3:  KCCI:  Boswell 52%, Lamberti 41% - 09/14/06
  • CD-1:  Constituent Dynamics:  Braley 53%, Whalen 41% - 09/07/06
  • CD-3:  Constituent Dynamics:  Boswell 54%, Lamberti 43% - 09/07/06
  • Gov:  RATING CHANGE:  Mod DEM Hold to Weak DEM Hold - 09/04/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Culver 42%, Nussle 40% - 09/04/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Vilsack +8 (unchanged) - 08/27/06
  • CD-3:  RATING CHANGE:  possibly competitive to Weak DEM Hold - 08/09/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Culver 41%, Nussle 38% - 08/03/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Vilsack +8 (down 7) - 07/23/06
  • Tracking initiated - 07/12/06

    Conservative Ranking


    Iowa is the 31st most conservative state, voting 1.8% less Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Iowa's partisan trend is STEADY.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    Iowa ranks 29th among the 50 states.

    Senate Race


    No race in 2006

    Governor's Race


    OPEN SEAT:  DEM incumbent Tom Vilsack is retiring after a 2nd term.

    GOP Candidates

  • Jim Nussle - Iowa Representative to the U.S. House  
  • Bob Vander Plaats - 2002 Primary Candidate for Iowa Governor

    Democrat Candidates

  • Chet Culver - Iowa Secretary of State  
  • Ed Fallon - Iowa State Representative
  • Mike Blouin - Director, Iowa Department of Economic Development
  • Patty Judge - Iowa Secretary of Agriculture
  • Saleh Mohamed - Chemical Engineer

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Chet Culver +6.8

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Nussle Culver
        Selzer & Co. 11/03 43% 52%
        Research 2000 10/31 45% 50%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls 7.0 90% 6.3
        Incumbent approval 10 5% 0.5
        State partisanship -0.7 5% -0.04

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Culver +6.8 Mod DEM Hold
        November 2, 2006 Culver +4.9 Weak DEM Hold
        October 23, 2006 Culver +3.8 Weak DEM Hold
        October 19, 2006 Culver +4.2 Weak DEM Hold
        October 16, 2006 Culver +3.6 Weak DEM Hold
        October 10, 2006 Culver +2.1 Weak DEM Hold
        September 25, 2006 Culver +3.0 Weak DEM Hold
        September 19, 2006 Culver +2.5 Weak DEM Hold
        September 14, 2006 Culver +3.5 Weak DEM Hold
        September 4, 2006 Culver +2.2 Weak DEM Hold
        August 3, 2006 Culver +5.3 Mod DEM Hold
        July 23, 2006 Culver +6.7 Mod DEM Hold
        July 11, 2006 Culver +7.0 Mod DEM Hold
        Preliminary ----- Weak DEM Hold

    Competitive House Races


    District 1


    OPEN SEAT:  GOP incumbent Jim Nussle is running for the Iowa Governorship in 2006.

    GOP Candidates

  • Bill Dix - Iowa State Representative
  • Brain Kennedy - Former Chairman, Iowa GOP
  • Mike Whalen - Businessman  

    Democrat Candidates

  • Bruce Braley - Former President, Iowa Trial Lawyer's Association  
  • Bill Gluba - Former Iowa State Senator
  • Rick Dickinson - Director, Iowa Economic Development
  • Denny Heath

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Bruce Braley +8.4 - DEM pick-up

    Pundit Predictions

      Pundit Date Prediction
        Stuart Rothenberg   10/21 Braley by 4 (Leans DEM)
        Charlie Cook 10/31 Braley by 4 (Leans DEM)
        Larry Sabato 10/24 Braley by 4 (Leans DEM)
        Congressional Quarterly 11/06 Braley by 4 (Leans DEM)

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Whalen Braley
        Selzer & Co. 11/03 35% 56%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Pundit predictions -4.0 70% -2.8
        Head-to-head polls -21.0 25% -5.3
        District partisanship -7 5% -0.4

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        November 1, 2006 Braley +8.4 Mod DEM Gain
        November 1, 2006 Braley +3.7 Weak DEM Gain
        October 24, 2006 Braley +4.3 Weak DEM Gain
        October 16, 2006 Braley +4.0 Weak DEM Gain
        October 13, 2006 Braley +4.3 Weak DEM Gain
        September 19, 2006 Braley +5.8 Mod DEM Gain
        September 7, 2006 Braley +4.4 Weak DEM Gain
        July 12, 2006 Braley +1.4 Weak DEM Gain
        Preliminary ----- Weak DEM Gain


    District 3


    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 2:  Jim Leach (R)-inc vs. David Loebsack (D) - possible competitive race
  • District 3:  Leonard Boswell (D)-inc vs. Jeff Lamberti (R) - possible competitive race
  • District 4:  Tom Latham (R)-inc vs. Seldon Spencer (D)
  • District 5:  Steve King (R)-inc vs. Joyce Schulte (D)

    Election Timeline


  • March 17, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • June 6, 2006 - Primary elections
  • November 7, 2006 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 1 GOP, 1 DEM
        Representatives 4 GOP, 1 DEM
      State Government
        Governor DEM
        Lt. Governor - tied to Governor DEM
        State Senate 25 GOP, 25 DEM
        State House - GOP control 51 GOP, 49 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Tom Vilsack (D) - 2nd term, not seeking re-election in 2006
  • Lt. Governor:  Sally Pederson (D) - 2nd term, tied to Governor
  • Senior Senator:  Tom Harkin (D) - 5th term, up for re-election in 2008
  • Junior Senator:  Chuck Grassley (R) - 5th term, up for re-election in 2010
  • House District 1:  Jim Nussle (R) - 2nd term (running for Governor)
  • House District 2:  Jim Leach (R) - 15th term
  • House District 3:  Leonard Boswell (D) - 5th term
  • House District 4:  Tom Latham (R) - 6th term
  • House District 5:  Steve King (R) - 2nd term

    Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop:  Kansas
    Previous Stop:  Indiana

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

    Site Traffic



  • 2006 Projections


    Search This Site
    by Google

    e-mail Scott at:
    thebloggingcaesar
    @electionprojection.com


    2004 Projection Results



    2006 Projections
    State-by-State

  • Alabama
  • Alaska
  • Arizona
  • Arkansas
  • California
  • Colorado
  • Connecticut
  • Delaware
  • Florida
  • Georgia
  • Hawaii
  • Idaho
  • Illinois
  • Indiana
  • Iowa
  • Kansas
  • Kentucky
  • Louisiana
  • Maine
  • Maryland
  • Massachusetts
  • Michigan
  • Minnesota
  • Mississippi
  • Missouri
  • Montana
  • Nebraska
  • Nevada
  • New Hampshire
  • New Jersey
  • New Mexico
  • New York
  • North Carolina
  • North Dakota
  • Ohio
  • Oklahoma
  • Oregon
  • Pennsylvania
  • Rhode Island
  • South Carolina
  • South Dakota
  • Tennessee
  • Texas
  • Utah
  • Vermont
  • Virginia
  • Washington
  • West Virginia
  • Wisconsin
  • Wyoming