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 Election 2006 Projections

 


 


Kansas

Latest News and Updates


  • Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Sabelius +29 (down 3) - 10/23/06
  • Gov:  RATING CHANGE:  Strong DEM Hold to Mod DEM Hold - 10/17/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA:  Sebelius 55%, Barnett 42% - 10/17/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Sabelius +32 (up 1) - 09/25/06
  • Gov:  RATING CHANGE:  Mod DEM Hold to Strong DEM Hold - 09/15/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA:  Sebelius 58%, Barnett 38% - 09/15/06
  • Gov:  RATING CHANGE:  Strong DEM Hold to Mod DEM Hold - 09/04/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Sebelius 48%, Barnett 37% - 09/04/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Sabelius +31 (up 6) - 08/27/06
  • Tracking initiated - 08/05/06

    Conservative Ranking


    Kansas is the 9th most conservative state, voting 22.9% more Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Kansas is trending REPUBLICAN.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    Kansas ranks 20th among the 50 states.

    Senate Race


    No race in 2006

    Governor's Race


    Incumbent  Democrat Kathleen Sebelius is up for re-election for the first time in 2006.  She faces no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Jim Barnett - Kansas State Senator  
  • Robin Jennison - Former Kansas Speaker of the House
  • Ken Canfield
  • Rex Crowell - Former Kansas State Representative
  • Richard Rodewald
  • Dennis Hawver
  • Timothy Pickell

    Democrat Candidates

  • Kathleen Sebelius - Incumbent  

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Kathleen Sebelius +14.3

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Barnett Sebeluis
        Rasmussen 10/29 31% 45%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls 14.0 80% 11.2
        Incumbent approval 29 15% 4.4
        State partisanship -25.4 5% -1.3

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Sebelius +14.3 Mod DEM Hold
        October 23, 2006 Sebelius +13.5 Mod DEM Hold
        October 17, 2006 Sebelius +13.9 Mod DEM Hold
        September 25, 2006 Sebelius +15.9 Strong DEM Hold
        September 15, 2006 Sebelius +15.8 Strong DEM Hold
        September 4, 2006 Sebelius +12.2 Mod DEM Hold
        August 27, 2006 Sebelius +20.2 Strong DEM Hold
        August 5, 2006 Sebelius +19.3 Strong DEM Hold
        Preliminary ----- Strong DEM Hold

    Competitive House Races


    No competitive races in 2006

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Jerry Moran (R)-inc vs. John Doll (D)
  • District 2:  Jim Ryun (R)-inc vs. Nancy Boyda (D) - possible competitive race
  • District 3:  Dennis Moore (D)-inc vs. Chuck Ahner (R)
  • District 4:  Todd Tiahrt (R)-inc vs. McGinn (D)

    Election Timeline


  • June 12, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • August 1, 2006 - Primary elections
  • November 7, 2006 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 2 GOP
        Representatives 3 GOP, 1 DEM
      State Government
        Governor DEM
        Lt. Governor - tied to Governor DEM
        State Senate - GOP control 30 GOP, 10 DEM
        State House - GOP control 83 GOP, 42 DEM
        State Supreme Court - DEM control 2 GOP, 5 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Kathleen Sebelius (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2006
  • Lt. Governor:  John Moore (D) - 1st term, tied to Governor
  • Senior Senator:  Sam Brownback (R) - 3rd term, will retire in 2011
  • Junior Senator:  Pat Roberts (R) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2008
  • House District 1:  Jerry Moran (R) - 5th term
  • House District 2:  Jim Ryun (R) - 5th term
  • House District 3:  Dennis Moore (D) - 4th term
  • House District 4:  Todd Tiahrt (R) - 6th term

    Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop:  Kentucky
    Previous Stop:  Iowa

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

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