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 Election 2006 Projections

 


 


Kentucky

Latest News and Updates


  • Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
  • CD-3:  SurveyUSA:  Yarmuth 52%, Northup 44% - 11/02/06
  • CD-4:  Constituent Dynamics:  Lucas 50%, Davis 46% - 10/31/06
  • CD-3:  Courier Journal:  Northup 48%, Yarmuth 42% - 10/30/06
  • CD-3:  Constituent Dynamics:  Yarmuth 52%, Northup 46% - 10/30/06
  • CD-4:  SurveyUSA:  Davis 46%, Lucas 44% - 10/25/06
  • CD-3:  Pundit rating change - 10/24/06
  • CD-3:  SurveyUSA:  Yarmuth 48%, Northup 47% - 10/20/06
  • CD-3:  Cooper & Secrest:  Northup 45%, Yarmuth 44% - 10/19/06
  • Replaced TBC with Stuart Rothenberg in House race pundit projections - 10/16/06
  • CD-3:  RATING CHANGE:  Mod GOP Hold to Weak GOP Hold - 10/13/06
  • CD-3:  Constituent Dynamics:  Northup 48%, Yarmuth 48% - 10/13/06
  • CD-3:  Pundit rating change - 10/13/06
  • CD-4:  Constituent Dynamics:  Davis 49%, Lucas 46% - 10/13/06
  • CD-4:  SurveyUSA:  Davis 47%, Lucas 44% - 10/11/06
  • CD-3:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak GOP Hold to Mod GOP Hold - 10/02/06
  • CD-3:  SurveyUSA:  Northup 50%, Yarmuth 44% - 10/02/06
  • CD-4:  SurveyUSA:  Lucas 48%, Davis 44% - 09/20/06
  • CD-4:  Constituent Dynamics:  Davis 49%, Lucas 46% - 09/07/06
  • CD-4:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak DEM Gain to Weak GOP Hold - 08/14/06
  • CD-4:  SurveyUSA:  Davis 46%, Lucas 44% - 08/14/06
  • CD-3:  RATING CHANGE:  possibly competitive to Weak GOP Hold - 08/09/06
  • CD-4:  RATING CHANGE:  possibly competitive to Weak DEM Gain - 07/26/06
  • CD-4:  SurveyUSA:  Lucas 50%, Davis 41% - 07/26/06
  • Tracking initiated - 07/12/06

    Conservative Ranking


    Kentucky is the 14th most conservative state, voting 17.4% more Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Kentucky is trending REPUBLICAN.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    Kentucky ranks 7th among the 50 states.

    Senate Race


    No race in 2006

    Governor's Race


    No race in 2006

    Competitive House Races


    District 3


    Incumbent:  Republican Anne Northup seeks a 6th term in 2006.  She faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Anne Northup - Incumbent  

    Democrat Candidates

  • John Yarmuth - Former Newspaper Publisher  

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Anne Northup +0.7

    Pundit Predictions

      Pundit Date Prediction
        Stuart Rothenberg   11/06 Northup by 2 (Tilts GOP)
        Charlie Cook 11/06 Northup by 2 (Tilts GOP)
        Larry Sabato 11/06 Toss-up
        Congressional Quarterly 10/24 Northup by 4 (Lean GOP)

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Northup Yarmuth
        SurveyUSA 11/05 45% 50%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Pundit predictions 2.0 70% 1.4
        Head-to-head polls -5.0 25% -1.3
        District partisanship 10.0 5% 0.5

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Northup +0.7 Weak GOP Hold
        November 2, 2006 Northup +1.8 Weak GOP Hold
        October 30, 2006 Northup +2.3 Weak GOP Hold
        October 24, 2006 Northup +3.8 Weak GOP Hold
        October 21, 2006 Northup +4.3 Weak GOP Hold
        October 19, 2006 Northup +4.5 Weak GOP Hold
        October 16, 2006 Northup +4.3 Weak GOP Hold
        October 13, 2006 Northup +4.1 Weak GOP Hold
        October 7, 2006 Northup +5.7 Mod GOP Hold
        October 2, 2006 Northup +5.3 Mod GOP Hold
        August 9, 2006 Northup +4.1 Weak GOP Hold
        Preliminary ----- possibly competitive


    District 4


    Incumbent:  Freshman Republican Geoff Davis seeks a second term in 2006.  He faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Geoff Davis - Incumbent  

    Democrat Candidates

  • Ken Lucas - Former Kentucky Representative to the U.S. House  

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Geoff Davis +3.1

    Pundit Predictions

      Pundit Date Prediction
        Stuart Rothenberg   11/06 Davis by 2 (Tilts GOP)
        Charlie Cook 07/19 Toss-up
        Larry Sabato 11/06 Lucas by 2 (Tilts DEM)
        Congressional Quarterly 11/06 Davis by 4 (Leans GOP)

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Davis Lucas
        SurveyUSA 11/05 49% 43%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Pundit predictions 1.0 70% 0.7
        Head-to-head polls 6.0 25% 1.5
        District partisanship 18.5 5% 0.9

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Davis +3.1 Weak GOP Hold
        October 31, 2006 Davis +0.9 Weak GOP Hold
        October 25, 2006 Davis +2.6 Weak GOP Hold
        October 16, 2006 Davis +2.9 Weak GOP Hold
        October 13, 2006 Davis +3.2 Weak GOP Hold
        October 11, 2006 Davis +2.9 Weak GOP Hold
        October 7, 2006 Davis +1.5 Weak GOP Hold
        September 20, 2006 Davis +1.7 Weak GOP Hold
        September 7, 2006 Davis +3.2 Weak GOP Hold
        August 14, 2006 Davis +1.0 Weak GOP Hold
        July 26, 2006 Lucas +1.7 Weak DEM Gain
        Preliminary ----- possibly competitive

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Edward Whitfield (R)-inc vs. Tom Barlow (D)
  • District 2:  Ron Lewis (R)-inc vs. Mike Weaver (D) - possible competitive race
  • District 5:  Hal Rogers (R)-inc vs. Kenneth Stepp (D)
  • District 6:  Ben Chandler (D)-inc vs. Elaine Sue Carlson (R)

    Election Timeline


  • January 31, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • May 16, 2006 - Primary elections
  • November 7, 2006 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 2 GOP
        Representatives 5 GOP, 1 DEM
      State Government
        Governor GOP
        Lt. Governor - tied to Governor GOP
        State Senate - GOP control 21 GOP, 15 DEM, 1 IND
        State House - DEM control 44 GOP, 56 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Ernie Fletcher (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2007
  • Lt. Governor:  Stephen Pence (R) - 1st term, tied to Governor
  • Senior Senator:  Mitch McConnell (R) - 4th term, up for re-election in 2008
  • Junior Senator:  Jim Bunning (R) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2010
  • House District 1:  Edward Whitfield (R) - 6th term
  • House District 2:  Ron Lewis (R) - 7th term
  • House District 3:  Anne Northrup (R) - 5th term
  • House District 4:  Geoff Davis (R) - 1st term
  • House District 5:  Hal Rogers (R) - 13th term
  • House District 6:  Ben Chandler (D) - 1st full term

    Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop:  Louisiana
    Previous Stop:  Kansas

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

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