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 Election 2006 Projections

 


 


Maine

Latest News and Updates


  • Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Baldacci 45%, Woodcock 31% - 11/01/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Snowe +54 (up 5) - 10/27/06
  • Sen:  Critical Insights:  Snowe 74%, Bright 14% - 10/27/06
  • Gov:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak DEM Hold to Mod DEM Hold - 10/27/06
  • Gov:  Critical Insights:  Baldacci 42%, Woodcock 25% - 10/27/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA:  Baldacci 44%, Woodcock 39% - 10/24/06
  • Gov:  RATING CHANGE:  Mod DEM Hold to Weak DEM Hold - 10/23/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Baldacci -12 (down 4) - 10/23/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Snowe 70%, Bright 24% - 10/19/06
  • Gov:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak DEM Hold to Mod DEM Hold - 10/19/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Baldacci 44%, Woodcock 34% - 10/19/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Snowe +49 (up 1) - 10/07/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA:  Baldacci 44%, Woodcock 39% - 09/29/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Baldacci 44%, Woodcock 39% - 09/25/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Baldacci -8 (down 2) - 09/25/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Baldacci -6 (up 2) - 08/27/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Baldacci 43%, Woodcock 42% - 08/22/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Snowe 68%, Bright 20% - 08/21/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Snowe +48 (unchanged) - 08/18/06
  • Gov:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak GOP Gain to Weak DEM Hold - 08/03/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Snowe 69%, Bright 22% - 08/02/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Baldacci 43%, Woodcock 37% - 08/02/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Snowe +48 (up 5) - 07/26/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Baldacci -8 (up 3) - 07/23/06
  • Tracking initiated - 07/12/06

    Conservative Ranking


    Maine is the 9th least conservative state, voting 11.5% less Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Maine is trending DEMOCRAT.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    Maine ranks 44th among the 50 states.

    Senate Race


    Incumbent:  GOP incumbent Olympia Snowe is seeking a third term in 2006.  She faced only token primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Olympia Snowe - Incumbent  

    Democrat Candidates

  • Jean Hay Bright - Perennial Candidate  
  • Eric Mehnert - Attorney

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Olympia Snowe +55.7

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Snowe Bright
        Critical Insights 10/27 74% 14%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls 60.0 80% 48.0
        Incumbent approval 54 15% 8.1
        State partisanship -9.0 5% -0.5

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Snowe +55.7 Strong GOP Hold
        October 27, 2006 Snowe +50.1 Strong GOP Hold
        October 19, 2006 Snowe +43.7 Strong GOP Hold
        October 7, 2006 Snowe +45.3 Strong GOP Hold
        August 21, 2006 Snowe +45.2 Strong GOP Hold
        August 2, 2006 Snowe +44.4 Strong GOP Hold
        July 31, 2006 Snowe +38.8 Strong GOP Hold
        July 12, 2006 Snowe +38.0 Strong GOP Hold
        Preliminary ----- Strong GOP Hold

    Governor's Race


    Incumbent:  DEM incumbent John Baldacci is seeking re-election for the first time in 2006.  He faced only token primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Chandler Woodcock - Maine State Senator  
  • Dave Emery - Former Maine Representative to the U.S House
  • Peter Mills - Maine State Senator

    Democrat Candidates

  • John Baldacci - Incumbent  
  • Christopher Miller

    Independent Candidates

  • Alex Hammer - Internet Publisher

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  John Baldacci +6.7

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Woodcock Baldacci
        SurveyUSA 11/04 30% 36%
        Rasmussen 10/29 31% 45%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls 10.0 80% 8.0
        Incumbent approval -12 15% -1.8
        State partisanship 9.0 5% 0.5

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Baldacci +6.7 Mod DEM Hold
        November 1, 2006 Baldacci +8.3 Mod DEM Hold
        October 23, 2006 Baldacci +7.2 Mod DEM Hold
        October 23, 2006 Baldacci +4.7 Weak DEM Hold
        October 19, 2006 Baldacci +5.3 Mod DEM Hold
        September 25, 2006 Baldacci +3.3 Weak DEM Hold
        August 27, 2006 Baldacci +0.4 Weak DEM Hold
        August 22, 2006 Baldacci +0.1 Weak DEM Hold
        August 2, 2006 Baldacci +0.9 Weak DEM Hold
        July 12, 2006 Wookcock +1.2 Weak GOP Gain
        Preliminary ----- Weak DEM Hold

    Competitive House Races


    No competitive races in 2006

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Tom Allen (D)-inc vs. Darlene Curley (R)
  • District 2:  Michael Michaud (D)-inc vs. Laurence D'Amboise

    Election Timeline


  • March 15, 2006 - Deadline to file for primary
  • June 1, 2006 - Deadline to file as independent
  • June 13, 2006 - Primary elections
  • November 7, 2006 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 2 GOP
        Representatives 2 DEM
      State Government
        Governor DEM
        State Senate - DEM control 16 GOP, 19 DEM
        State House - DEM control 73 GOP, 74 DEM, 4 other

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  John Baldacci (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2006
  • Senior Senator:  Olympia Snowe (R) - term, up for re-election in 2006
  • Junior Senator:  Susan Collins (R) - term, up for re-election in 2008
  • House District 1:  Tom Allen (D) - 5th term
  • House District 2:  Michael Michaud (D) - 2nd term

    Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop:  Maryland
    Previous Stop:  Louisiana

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

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