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 Election 2006 Projections

 


 


Maryland

Latest News and Updates


  • Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Cardin 50%, Steele 45% - 11/02/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  O'Malley 49%, Ehrlich 48% - 11/02/06
  • Sen:  Baltimore Sun:  Cardin 49%, Steele 43% - 11/02/06
  • Gov:  RATING CHANGE:  Mod DEM Gain to Weak DEM Gain - 11/01/06
  • Gov:  Baltimore Sun:  O'Malley 47%, Ehrlich 46% - 11/01/06
  • Sen:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak DEM Hold to Mod DEM Hold - 10/30/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Cardin 50%, Steele 45% - 10/30/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  O'Malley 50%, Ehrlich 47% - 10/30/06
  • Sen:  Washington Post:  Cardin 50%, Steele 43% - 10/30/06
  • Gov:  Washington Post:  O'Malley 54%, Ehrlich 43% - 10/30/06
  • Sen:  RATING CHANGE:  Mod DEM Hold to Weak DEM Hold - 10/27/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Sarbanes +10 (down 4) - 10/27/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Ehrlich even (down 5) - 10/23/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA:  Steele 46%, Cardin 46% - 10/19/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA:  O'Malley 49%, Ehrlich 43% - 10/19/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  O'Malley 50%, Ehrlich 44% - 10/17/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Cardin 50%, Steele 43% - 10/16/06
  • Sen:  USA Today/Gallup:  Cardin 54%, Steele 39% - 10/07/06
  • Gov:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak DEM Gain to Mod DEM Gain - 10/07/06
  • Gov:  USA Today/Gallup:  O'Malley 53%, Ehrlich 41% - 10/07/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Sarbanes +14 (up 5) - 10/07/06
  • Sen:  Mason-Dixon:  Cardin 47%, Steele 41% - 10/02/06
  • Gov:  RATING CHANGE:  Mod DEM Gain to Weak DEM Gain - 10/02/06
  • Gov:  Mason-Dixon:  O'Malley 47%, Ehrlich 43% - 10/02/06
  • Sen:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak DEM Hold to Mod DEM Hold - 09/25/06
  • Sen:  Potomac:  Cardin 51%, Steele 40% - 09/25/06
  • Gov:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak DEM Gain to Mod DEM Gain - 09/25/06
  • Gov:  Potomac:  O'Malley 50%, Ehrlich 44% - 09/25/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Ehrlich +5 (down 4) - 09/25/06
  • Sen:  RATING CHANGE:  Mod DEM Hold to Weak DEM Hold - 09/21/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA:  Steele 48%, Cardin 47% - 09/21/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA:  O'Malley 51%, Ehrlich 44% - 09/21/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Cardin 50%, Steele 43% - 09/20/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  O'Malley 49%, Ehrlich 42% - 09/20/06
  • Tracking initiated and primary winners posted - 09/13/06

    Conservative Ranking


    Maryland is the 5th least conservative state, voting 15.5% less Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Maryland is trending DEMOCRAT.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    Maryland ranks 46th among the 50 states.

    Senate Race


    OPEN SEAT:  DEM incumbent Paul Sarbanes is retiring at the end of this, his 5th term.

    GOP Candidates

  • Michael Steele - Maryland Lt. Governor  
  • Ray Bly
  • Earl Gordon
  • Thomas Hampton
  • John Kimble
  • Edward Madej
  • Daniel Muffoletto
  • Richard Shawver
  • Corrogan Vaughn
  • Daniel "Wig Man" Vovak - President, Greenwich Public Relations

    Democrat Candidates

  • Ben Cardin - Maryland Representative to the U.S. House  
  • Kweisi Mfume - Former Maryland Representative to the U.S. House
  • David Dickerson
  • George English
  • James Hutchinson
  • Anthony Jaworski
  • Robert Kaufman - 2002 Congressional Candidate
  • Allan Lichtman - Professor
  • Thomas McCaskill
  • Josh Rales
  • Dennis Rasmussen
  • Bob Robinson
  • Theresa Scaldaferri
  • Mike Schaefer
  • Charles Smith
  • Blaine Taylor
  • Joseph Werner
  • Lih Young

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Ben Cardin +4.5

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Steele Cardin
        SurveyUSA 11/05 46% 49%
        Mason-Dixon 11/03 44% 47%
        Rasmussen 10/31 45% 50%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls 3.7 90% 3.3
        Incumbent approval 10 5% 0.5
        State partisanship 13.0 5% 0.7

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Cardin +4.5 Mod DEM Hold
        November 2, 2006 Cardin +6.1 Mod DEM Hold
        October 30, 2006 Cardin +6.0 Mod DEM Hold
        October 27, 2006 Cardin +4.3 Weak DEM Hold
        October 19, 2006 Cardin +8.4 Mod DEM Hold
        October 7, 2006 Cardin +8.2 Mod DEM Hold
        October 2, 2006 Cardin +6.3 Mod DEM Hold
        September 25, 2006 Cardin +6.2 Mod DEM Hold
        September 21, 2006 Cardin +4.4 Weak DEM Hold
        September 20, 2006 Cardin +6.5 Mod DEM Hold
        September 13, 2006 Cardin +5.6 Mod DEM Hold
        Preliminary ----- Weak DEM Hold

    Governor's Race


    Incumbent:  GOPer Bob Ehrlich is seeking a second term in 2006.  He faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Robert Ehrlich - Incumbent  

    Democrat Candidates

  • Martin O'Malley - Baltimore Mayor  

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Martin O'Malley +1.7 - DEM pick-up

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Ehrlich O'Malley
        SurveyUSA 11/05 47% 50%
        Mason-Dixon 11/03 45% 45%
        Rasmussen 10/31 48% 49%
        Baltimore Sun 10/30 46% 47%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls -1.3 80% -1.0
        Incumbent approval 0 15% 0.0
        State partisanship -13.0 5% -0.7

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection O'Malley +1.7 Weak DEM Gain
        November 2, 2006 O'Malley +4.3 Weak DEM Gain
        November 1, 2006 O'Malley +4.7 Weak DEM Gain
        October 30, 2006 O'Malley +5.7 Mod DEM Gain
        October 23, 2006 O'Malley +6.1 Mod DEM Gain
        October 19, 2006 O'Malley +5.3 Mod DEM Gain
        October 17, 2006 O'Malley +5.5 Mod DEM Gain
        October 7, 2006 O'Malley +5.7 Mod DEM Gain
        October 2, 2006 O'Malley +4.7 Weak DEM Gain
        September 25, 2006 O'Malley +5.2 Mod DEM Gain
        September 21, 2006 O'Malley +4.1 Weak DEM Gain
        September 20, 2006 O'Malley +3.7 Weak DEM Gain
        September 3, 2006 O'Malley +2.5 Weak DEM Gain
        Preliminary ----- Mod DEM Gain

    Competitive House Races


    No competitive races in 2006

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Wayne Gilchrest (R)-inc vs. Jim Corwin (D)
  • District 2:  Dutch Ruppersberger? (D)-inc vs. Jimmy Mathis (R)
  • District 3:  OPEN:  John Sarbanes (D)-inc vs. John White (R)
  • District 4:  Albert Wynn (D)-inc vs. Michael Starkman (R)
  • District 5:  Steny Hoyer (D)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 6:  Roscoe Bartlett (R)-inc vs. Andrew Duck (D)
  • District 7:  Elijah Cummings (D)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 8:  Christopher van Hollen (D)-inc vs. Jeffrey Stein (R)

    Election Timeline


  • July 3, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • September 12, 2006 - Primary elections
  • November 7, 2006 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 2 DEM
        Representatives 2 GOP, 6 DEM
      State Government
        Governor GOP
        Lt. Governor - tied to Governor GOP
        State Senate - DEM control 14 GOP, 33 DEM
        State House - DEM control 43 GOP, 98 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Robert Ehrlich (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2006
  • Lt. Governor:  Michael Steele (R) - 1st term, tied to Governor (running for Senate)
  • Senior Senator:  Paul Sarbanes (D) - 5th term, retiring in 2007
  • Junior Senator:  Barbara Mikulski (D) - 4th term, up for re-election in 2010
  • House District 1:  Wayne Gilchrest (R) - 8th term
  • House District 2:  Dutch Ruppersberger (D) - 2nd term
  • House District 3:  Ben Cardin (D) - 10th term (running for Senate)
  • House District 4:  Albert Wynn (D) - 7th term
  • House District 5:  Steny Hoyer (D) - 13th term
  • House District 6:  Roscoe Bartlett (R) - 7th term
  • House District 7:  Elijah Cummings (D) - 6th term
  • House District 8:  Christopher van Hollen (D) - 2nd term

    Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop:  Massachusetts
    Previous Stop:  Maine

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

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