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 Election 2006 Projections

 


 


Massachusetts

Latest News and Updates


  • Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Kennedy +28 (up 10) - 10/27/06
  • Sen:  Suffolk University:  Kennedy 60%, Chase 26% - 10/27/06
  • Sen:  Boston Globe:  Kennedy 66%, Chase 25% - 10/27/06
  • Gov:  Boston Globe:  Patrick 54%, Healey 29% - 10/27/06
  • Gov:  Suffolk University:  Patrick 53%, Healey 26%, Mihos 9% - 10/25/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Romney -11 (down 3) - 10/23/06
  • Gov:  Suffolk University:  Patrick 46%, Healey 33%, Mihos 7% - 10/13/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA:  Patrick 64%, Healey 25%, Mihos 9% - 10/12/06
  • Gov:  Suffolk University:  Patrick 49%, Healey 28%, Mihos 6% - 10/07/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Kennedy +18 (up 2) - 10/07/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Patrick 57%, Healey 24%, Mihos 9% - 10/04/06
  • Gov:  RATING CHANGE:  Mod DEM Gain to Strong DEM Gain - 09/25/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA:  Patrick 64%, Healey 25% - 09/25/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Romney -8 (down 7) - 09/25/06
  • Gov:  RATING CHANGE:  Strong Dem Gain to Mod Dem Gain - 09/20/06
  • Tracking initiated and primary winners posted - 09/20/06

    Conservative Ranking


    Massachusetts is the LEAST conservative state, voting 27.6% less Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Massachusetts is trending DEMOCRAT.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    Massachusetts ranks 49th among the 50 states.

    Senate Race


    Incumbent:  DEM incumbent Ted Kennedy is up for a 9th term 2006.  He faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Kenneth Chase - School Administrator  
  • Kevin Scott - Wakefield Selectman

    Democrat Candidates

  • Edward Kennedy - Incumbent  

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Edward Kennedy +35.5

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Chase Kennedy
        Suffolk Univ. 10/27 26% 60%
        Boston Globe 10/27 25% 66%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls 37.5 80% 30.0
        Incumbent approval 28 15% 4.2
        State partisanship 25.1 5% 1.3

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Kennedy +35.5 Strong DEM Hold
        October 27, 2006 Kennedy +35.5 Strong DEM Hold
        October 7, 2006 Kennedy +16.0 Strong DEM Hold
        September 20, 2006 Kennedy +15.7 Strong DEM Hold
        Preliminary ----- Strong DEM Hold

    Governor's Race


    OPEN SEAT:  GOP incumbent Mitt Romney is not seeking a second term.

    GOP Candidates

  • Kerry Healey - Massachusetts Lt. Governor  

    Democrat Candidates

  • Christopher Gabrieli
  • Thomas Reilly - Massachusetts Attorney General
  • Deval Patrick - Former Deputy U.S. Attorney General  

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Deval Patrick +20.7 - DEM pick-up

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Healey Patrick
        SurveyUSA 11/01 34% 55%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls -21.0 90% -18.9
        Incumbent approval -11 5% -0.6
        State partisanship -25.1 5% -1.3

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Patrick +20.7 Strong DEM Gain
        October 27, 2006 Patrick +24.9 Strong DEM Gain
        October 25, 2006 Patrick +25.2 Strong DEM Gain
        October 23, 2006 Patrick +27.3 Strong DEM Gain
        October 13, 2006 Patrick +27.2 Strong DEM Gain
        October 12, 2006 Patrick +29.6 Strong DEM Gain
        October 7, 2006 Patrick +25.5 Strong DEM Gain
        October 4, 2006 Patrick +27.2 Strong DEM Gain
        September 25, 2006 Patrick +25.1 Strong DEM Gain
        September 20, 2006 Patrick +13.0 Mod DEM Gain
        Preliminary ----- Strong DEM Gain

    Competitive House Races


    No competitive races in 2006

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  John Olver (D)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 2:  Richard Neal (D)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 3:  James McGovern (D)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 4:  Barney Frank (D)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 5:  Martin Meehan (D)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 6:  John Tierney (D)-inc vs. Richard Barton (R)
  • District 7:  Edward Markey (D)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 8:  Michael Capuano (D)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 9:  Stephen Lynch (D)-inc vs. Jack Robinson (R)
  • District 10:  William Delahunt (D)-inc vs. Jeffrey Beatty (R)

    Election Timeline


  • June 6, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • September 19, 2006 - Primary elections
  • November 7, 2006 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 2 DEM
        Representatives 10 DEM
      State Government
        Governor GOP
        Lt. Governor - tied to Governor GOP
        State Senate - DEM control 6 GOP, 34 DEM
        State House - DEM control 19 GOP, 138 DEM, 1 IND

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Mitt Romney (R) - term, not seeking re-election in 2006
  • Lt. Governor:  Kerry Healey (R) - 1st term, tied to Governor (running for Governor)
  • Senior Senator:  Edward Kennedy (D) - 9th term, up for re-election in 2006
  • Junior Senator:  John Kerry (D) - 3rd term, up for re-election in 2008
  • House District 1:  John Olver (D) - 8th term
  • House District 2:  Richard Neal (D) - 9th term
  • House District 3:  James McGovern (D) - 5th term
  • House District 4:  Barney Frank (D) - 13th term
  • House District 5:  Martin Meehan (D) - 7th term
  • House District 6:  John Tierney (D) - 5th term
  • House District 7:  Edward Markey (D) - 15th term
  • House District 8:  Michael Capuano (D) - 4th term
  • House District 9:  Steven Lynch (D) - 3rd term
  • House District 10:  William Delahunt (D) - 5th term

    Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop:  Michigan
    Previous Stop:  Maryland

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

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