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 Election 2006 Projections

 


 


Michigan

Latest News and Updates


  • Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
  • Sen:  Strategic Vision:  Stabenow 49%, Bouchard 42% - 11/02/06
  • Gov:  Strategic Vision:  Granholm 50%, DeVos 42% - 11/02/06
  • Sen:  Detroit News:  Stabenow 52%, Bouchard 38% - 11/01/06
  • Gov:  Detroit News:  Granholm 52%, DeVos 42% - 11/01/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Stabenow +5 (down 12) - 10/27/06
  • Sen:  Detroit News:  Stabenow 50%, Bouchard 38% - 10/27/06
  • Gov:  Detroit News:  Granholm 48%, DeVos 43% - 10/27/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA:  Stabenow 51%, Bouchard 44% - 10/26/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA:  Granholm 52%, DeVos 45% - 10/26/06
  • Sen:  Research 2000:  Stabenow 52%, Bouchard 41% - 10/26/06
  • Gov:  Research 2000:  Granholm 50%, DeVos 40% - 10/26/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Stabenow 55%, Bouchard 39% - 10/25/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Granholm 53%, DeVos 42% - 10/25/06
  • Sen:  Strategic Vision:  Stabenow 48%, Bouchard 42% - 10/24/06
  • Gov:  Strategic Vision:  Granholm 47%, DeVos 43% - 10/24/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Granholm -19 (down 5) - 10/23/06
  • Sen:  Detroit Free Press:  Stabenow 48%, Bouchard 35% - 10/16/06
  • Gov:  Detroit Free Press:  Granholm 49%, DeVos 41% - 10/16/06
  • Gov:  EPIC/MRA:  Granholm 51%, DeVos 42% - 10/16/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA:  Stabenow 53%, Bouchard 42% - 10/10/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA:  Granholm 50%, DeVos 45% - 10/10/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Stabenow 56%, Bouchard 39% - 10/09/06
  • Gov:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak GOP Gain to Weak DEM Hold - 10/09/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Granholm 49%, DeVos 42% - 10/09/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Stabenow +17 (up 8) - 10/07/06
  • Sen:  Detroit News:  Stabenow 47%, Bouchard 35% - 10/07/06
  • Gov:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak DEM Hold to Weak GOP Gain - 10/07/06
  • Gov:  Detroit News:  Granholm 46%, DeVos 40% - 10/07/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Granholm -14 (down 4) - 09/25/06
  • Sen:  Strategic Vision:  Stabenow 51%, Bouchard 44% - 09/20/06
  • Gov:  Strategic Vision:  Granholm 47%, DeVos 46% - 09/20/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA:  Stabenow 54%, Bouchard 41% - 09/19/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA:  DeVos 47%, Granholm 47% - 09/19/06
  • Gov:  EPIC/MRA:  Granholm 50%, DeVos 42% - 09/15/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Stabenow 51%, Bouchard 43% - 09/07/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  DeVos 46%, Granholm 44% - 09/07/06
  • Sen:  Detroit Free Press:  Stabenow 50%, Bouchard 37% - 09/05/06
  • Gov:  Detroit Free Press:  Granholm 46%, DeVos 44% - 09/05/06
  • Sen:  Strategic Vision:  Stabenow 49%, Bouchard 42% - 08/28/06
  • Gov:  Strategic Vision:  Granholm 48%, DeVos 43% - 08/28/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Granholm -10 (unchanged) - 08/27/06
  • Gov:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak GOP Gain to Weak DEM Hold - 08/24/06
  • Sen:  EPIC/MRA:  Stabenow 51%, Bouchard 38% - 08/24/06
  • Gov:  EPIC/MRA:  Granholm 49%, DeVos 42% - 08/24/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA:  Stabenow 51%, Bouchard 42% - 08/22/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA:  DeVos 47%, Granholm 47% - 08/22/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Stabenow +9 (down 2) - 08/18/06
  • Gov:  RATING CHANGE:  Mod GOP Gain to Weak GOP Gain - 08/16/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Stabenow 49%, Bouchard 44% - 08/16/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Granholm 47%, DeVos 46% - 08/16/06
  • Gov:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak GOP Gain to Mod GOP Gain - 08/09/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA:  Stabenow 48%, Bouchard 41% - 08/09/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA:  DeVos 50%, Granholm 42% - 08/09/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  DeVos 48%, Granholm 42% - 08/02/06
  • Gov:  Strategic Vision:  DeVos 48%, Granholm 44% - 07/27/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Granholm -10 (up 4) - 07/23/06
  • Gov:  Detroit Free Press:  DeVos 47%, Granholm 42% - 07/17/06
  • Tracking initiated - 07/12/06

    Conservative Ranking


    Michigan is the 16th least conservative state, voting 5.9% less Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Michigan is trending DEMOCRAT.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    Michigan ranks 33rd among the 50 states.

    Senate Race


    Incumbent:  Freshman Democrat Debbie Stabenow is running for a second term in 2006.  She faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Keith Butler - Former Detroit City Councilman
  • Mike Bouchard - Former Michigan State Senate Majority Leader  

    Democrat Candidates

  • Debbie Stabenow - Incumbent  

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Debbie Stabenow +11.3

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Bouchard Stabenow
        SurveyUSA 11/04 42% 52%
        Strategic Vision 11/02 42% 49%
        Detroit News 11/02 38% 51%
        Mason-Dixon 11/02 37% 53%
        Detroit Free Press 11/02 34% 53%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls 13.0 80% 10.4
        Incumbent approval 5 15% 0.8
        State partisanship 3.4 5% 0.2

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Stabenow +11.3 Mod DEM Hold
        November 2, 2006 Stabenow +9.7 Mod DEM Hold
        November 1, 2006 Stabenow +10.5 Mod DEM Hold
        October 27, 2006 Stabenow +9.2 Mod DEM Hold
        October 26, 2006 Stabenow +11.3 Mod DEM Hold
        October 25, 2006 Stabenow +12.1 Mod DEM Hold
        October 24, 2006 Stabenow +12.2 Mod DEM Hold
        October 16, 2006 Stabenow +12.3 Mod DEM Hold
        October 10, 2006 Stabenow +12.1 Mod DEM Hold
        October 9, 2006 Stabenow +12.5 Mod DEM Hold
        October 7, 2006 Stabenow +10.7 Mod DEM Hold
        September 19, 2006 Stabenow +10.2 Mod DEM Hold
        September 9, 2006 Stabenow +9.5 Mod DEM Hold
        September 5, 2006 Stabenow +9.0 Mod DEM Hold
        August 28, 2006 Stabenow +8.3 Mod DEM Hold
        August 24, 2006 Stabenow +8.7 Mod DEM Hold
        August 22, 2006 Stabenow +9.5 Mod DEM Hold
        August 18, 2006 Stabenow +9.1 Mod DEM Hold
        August 16, 2006 Stabenow +9.4 Mod DEM Hold
        August 9, 2006 Stabenow +13.3 Mod DEM Hold
        Preliminary ----- Mod DEM Hold

    Governor's Race


    Incumbent:  Freshman Democrat Jennifer Granholm is seeking re-election in 2006.  She faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Dick DeVos - Businessman  

    Democrat Candidates

  • Jennifer Granholm - Incumbent  

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Jennifer Granholm +5.0

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date DeVos Granholm
        SurveyUSA 11/04 45% 51%
        Strategic Vision 11/02 42% 50%
        Detroit News 11/02 42% 49%
        Mason-Dixon 11/02 38% 52%
        Detroit Free Press 11/02 41% 54%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls 9.6 80% 7.7
        Incumbent approval -19 15% -2.9
        State partisanship 3.4 5% 0.2

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Granholm +4.7 Weak DEM Hold
        November 2, 2006 Granholm +4.7 Weak DEM Hold
        November 1, 2006 Granholm +4.9 Weak DEM Hold
        October 27, 2006 Granholm +3.2 Weak DEM Hold
        October 25, 2006 Granholm +3.7 Weak DEM Hold
        October 24, 2006 Granholm +2.6 Weak DEM Hold
        October 23, 2006 Granholm +2.9 Weak DEM Hold
        October 16, 2006 Granholm +3.7 Weak DEM Hold
        October 10, 2006 Granholm +1.9 Weak DEM Hold
        October 9, 2006 Granholm +0.9 Weak DEM Hold
        October 7, 2006 DeVos +0.1 Weak GOP Gain
        September 25, 2006 Granholm +0.3 Weak DEM Hold
        September 20, 2006 Granholm +0.8 Weak DEM Hold
        September 15, 2006 Granholm +1.6 Weak DEM Hold
        September 7, 2006 Granholm +0.7 Weak DEM Hold
        August 28, 2006 Granholm +1.3 Weak DEM Hold
        August 24, 2006 Granholm +0.8 Weak DEM Hold
        August 22, 2006 DeVos +2.1 Weak GOP Gain
        August 16, 2006 DeVos +4.2 Weak GOP Gain
        August 9, 2006 DeVos +5.9 Mod GOP Gain
        August 2, 2006 DeVos +4.7 Weak GOP Gain
        July 27, 2006 DeVos +3.1 Weak GOP Gain
        July 23, 2006 DeVos +3.7 Weak GOP Gain
        July 17, 2006 DeVos +4.3 Weak GOP Gain
        Preliminary ----- Weak DEM Hold

    Competitive House Races


    No competitive races in 2006

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Bart Stupak (D)-inc vs. Don Hooper (R)
  • District 2:  Peter Hoekstra (R)-inc vs. Kimon Kotos (D)
  • District 3:  Vernon Ehlers (R)-inc vs. James Rinck (D)
  • District 4:  Dave Lee Camp (R)-inc vs. Mike Huckleberry (D)
  • District 5:  Dale Kildee (D)-inc vs. Eric Klammer (R)
  • District 6:  Fred Upton (R)-inc vs. Kim Clark (D)
  • District 7:  Tim Walberg (R) vs. Sharon Renier (D)
  • District 8:  Michael Rogers (R)-inc vs. Jim Marcinkowski (D)
  • District 9:  Joseph Knollenberg (R)-inc vs. Nancy Skinner (D)
  • District 10:  Candice Miller (R)-inc vs. Robert Denison (D)
  • District 11:  Thad McCotter (R)-inc vs. Tony Trupiano (D)
  • District 12:  Sandy Levin (D)-inc vs. Randell Shafer (R)
  • District 13:  Carolyn Kilpatrick (D)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 14:  John Conyers Jr. (D)-inc vs. Chad Miles (R)
  • District 15:  John Dingell (D)-inc  (unopposed)

    Election Timeline


  • May 16, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • August 8, 2006 - Primary elections
  • November 7, 2006 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 2 DEM
        Representatives 9 GOP, 6 DEM
      State Government
        Governor DEM
        Lt. Governor - tied to Governor DEM
        State Senate - GOP control 22 GOP, 16 DEM
        State House - GOP control 58 GOP, 50 DEM, 2 vacant

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Jennifer Granholm (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2006
  • Lt. Governor:  John Cherry (D) - 1st term, tied to Governor
  • Senior Senator:  Carl Levin (D) - 5th term, up for re-election in 2008
  • Junior Senator:  Debbie Stabenow (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2006
  • House District 1:  Bart Stupak (D) - 7th term
  • House District 2:  Peter Hoekstra (R) - 7th term
  • House District 3:  Vernon Ehlers (R) - 7th term
  • House District 4:  Dave Lee Camp (R) - 8th term
  • House District 5:  Dale Kildee (D) - 15th term
  • House District 6:  Fred Upton (R) - 10th term
  • House District 7:  Joe Schwarz (R) - 1st term
  • House District 8:  Michael Rogers (R) - 3rd term
  • House District 9:  Joseph Knollenberg (R) - 7th term
  • House District 10:  Candice Miller (R) - 2nd term
  • House District 11:  Thad McCotter (R) - 2nd term
  • House District 12:  Sandy Levin (D) - 12th term
  • House District 13:  Carolyn Kilpatrick (D) - 5th term
  • House District 14:  John Conyers Jr. (D) - 21st term
  • House District 15:  John Dingell (D) - 26th term

    Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop:  Minnesota
    Previous Stop:  Massachusetts

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

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