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 Election 2006 Projections

 


 


Minnesota

Latest News and Updates


  • Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
  • Sen:  RATING CHANGE:  Strong DEM Hold to Mod DEM Hold - 11/02/06
  • Sen:  Mason-Dixon:  Klobuchar 50%, Kennedy 40% - 11/02/06
  • Gov:  Mason-Dixon:  Hatch 44%, Pawlenty 43% - 11/02/06
  • CD-1:  Pundit rating change - 11/01/06
  • CD-1:  Constituent Dynamics:  Gutknecht 50%, Walz 47% - 10/31/06
  • CD-6:  Constituent Dynamics:  Bachman 47%, Wetterling 44% - 10/30/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Dayton -11 (down 6) - 10/07/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Klobuchar 54%, Kennedy 39% - 10/27/06
  • Gov:  RATING CHANGE:  Mod DEM Gain to Weak DEM Gain - 10/27/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Hatch 45%, Pawlenty 44% - 10/27/06
  • CD-6:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak DEM Gain to Weak GOP Hold - 10/26/06
  • CD-6:  SurveyUSA:  Bachman 49%, Wetterling 43% - 10/26/06
  • Sen:  RATING CHANGE:  Mod DEM Hold to Strong DEM Hold - 10/25/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA:  Klobuchar 55%, Kennedy 39% - 10/25/06
  • Gov:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak DEM Gain to Mod DEM Gain - 10/25/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA:  Hatch 45%, Pawlenty 44%, Hutchinson 7% - 10/25/06
  • Gov:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain - 10/23/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Pawlenty -7 (down 24) - 10/23/06
  • CD-1:  RATING CHANGE:  possibly competitive to Weak GOP Hold - 10/21/06
  • CD-6:  Pundit rating change - 10/21/06
  • CD-6:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain - 10/17/06
  • CD-6:  Star Tribune:  Wetterling 48%, Bachman 40% - 10/13/06
  • Sen:  Star Tribune:  Klobuchar 55%, Kennedy 32% - 10/16/06
  • Gov:  Star Tribune:  Hatch 46%, Pawlenty 37% - 10/16/06
  • Replaced TBC with Stuart Rothenberg in House race pundit projections - 10/16/06
  • CD-6:  Constituent Dynamics:  Wetterling 50%, Bachman 45% - 10/13/06
  • CD-6:  SurveyUSA:  Bachman 47%, Wetterling 44% - 10/10/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Klobuchar 54%, Kennedy 36% - 10/09/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Hatch 44%, Pawlenty 42% - 10/09/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Dayton -5 (up 2) - 10/07/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA:  Klobuchar 51%, Kennedy 43% - 09/29/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA:  Pawlenty 45%, Hatch 44% - 09/29/06
  • Sen:  Mason-Dixon:  Klobuchar 52%, Kennedy 37% - 09/25/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Pawlenty +17 (up 3) - 09/25/06
  • Sen:  University of Minnesota:  Klobuchar 52%, Kennedy 36% - 09/22/06
  • Gov:  Mason-Dixon:  Pawlenty 42%, Hatch 39% - 09/22/06
  • Gov:  University of Minnesota:  Hatch 44%, Pawlenty 42% - 09/21/06
  • CD-6:  SurveyUSA:  Bachman 50%, Wetterling 41% - 09/19/06
  • Tracking initiated and primary winners posted - 09/13/06
  • Sen:  USA Today/Gallup:  Klobuchar 50%, Kennedy 40% - 09/04/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Klobuchar 47%, Kennedy 40% - 09/01/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Dayton -7 (up 2) - 08/18/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Klobuchar 50%, Kennedy 38% - 08/08/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Dayton -9 (up 1) - 07/26/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA:  Klobuchar 47%, Kennedy 42% - 07/25/06
  • Sen:  Star Tribune:  Klobuchar 50%, Kennedy 31% - 07/17/06
  • Sen:  Tracking Initiated - 07/14/06

    Conservative Ranking


    Minnesota is the 15th least conservative state, voting 6.0% less Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Minnesota's partisan trend is STEADY.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    Minnesota ranks 25th among the 50 states.

    Senate Race


    OPEN SEAT:  Freshman DEM incumbent Mark Dayton is retiring in 2007.

    GOP Candidates

  • Mark Kennedy - Minnesota Representative to the U.S. House  
  • John Uldrich
  • Harold Shudlick

    Democrat (DFL) Candidates

  • Amy Klobuchar - Hennepin County Attorney  
  • Darryl Stanton

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Amy Klobuchar +15.8

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Kennedy Klobuchar
        Rasmussen 11/01 40% 54%
        Univ. of Minnesota 10/28 33% 55%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls 18.0 90% 16.2
        Incumbent approval -11 5% -0.6
        State partisanship 3.5 5% 0.2

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Klobuchar +15.8 Strong DEM Hold
        November 1, 2006 Klobuchar +11.9 Mod DEM Hold
        October 27, 2006 Klobuchar +15.8 Strong DEM Hold
        October 25, 2006 Klobuchar +17.5 Strong DEM Hold
        October 16, 2006 Klobuchar +14.3 Mod DEM Hold
        October 9, 2006 Klobuchar +12.8 Mod DEM Hold
        October 7, 2006 Klobuchar +11.6 Mod DEM Hold
        September 29, 2006 Klobuchar +9.9 Mod DEM Hold
        September 25, 2006 Klobuchar +10.6 Mod DEM Hold
        September 22, 2006 Klobuchar +9.7 Mod DEM Hold
        September 4, 2006 Klobuchar +7.5 Mod DEM Hold
        September 1, 2006 Klobuchar +6.1 Mod DEM Hold
        August 18, 2006 Klobuchar +10.6 Mod DEM Hold
        August 8, 2006 Klobuchar +10.5 Mod DEM Hold
        July 25, 2006 Klobuchar +7.8 Mod DEM Hold
        July 17, 2006 Klobuchar +9.6 Mod DEM Hold
        Preliminary ----- Weak DEM Hold

    Governor's Race


    Incumbent:  GOP incumbent Tim Pawlenty is seeking a second term in 2006.  He faced only token primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Tim Pawlenty - Incumbent  
  • Sue Jeffers

    Democrat (DFL) Candidates

  • Mike Hatch - Minnesota Attorney General  
  • Ole Savior
  • Becky Lourey - Minnesota State Senator

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Mike Hatch +3.6 - DEM pick-up

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Pawlenty Hatch
        Mason-Dixon 11/02 37% 46%
        Univ. of Minnesota 10/31 39% 45%
        Rasmussen 10/27 44% 45%
        SurveyUSA 10/25 44% 45%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls -3.0 80% -2.4
        Incumbent approval -7 15% -1.1
        State partisanship -3.5 5% -0.2

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Hatch +3.0 Weak DEM Gain
        November 2, 2006 Hatch +3.0 Weak DEM Gain
        October 27, 2006 Hatch +4.2 Weak DEM Gain
        October 25, 2006 Hatch +5.2 Mod DEM Gain
        October 23, 2006 Hatch +3.9 Weak DEM Gain
        October 16, 2006 Pawlenty +0.9 Weak GOP Hold
        October 9, 2006 Pawlenty +2.4 Weak GOP Hold
        September 29, 2006 Pawlenty +2.9 Weak GOP Hold
        September 25, 2006 Pawlenty +3.6 Weak GOP Hold
        September 22, 2006 Pawlenty +3.1 Weak GOP Hold
        September 21, 2006 Pawlenty +2.7 Weak GOP Hold
        September 13, 2006 Pawlenty +3.9 Weak GOP Hold
        Preliminary ----- Weak GOP Hold

    Competitive House Races


    District 1


    Incumbent:  Republican Gil Gutknecht is seeking re-election to a 7th term in 2006.  He faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Gil Gutknecht Jr - Incumbent  

    Democrat (DFL) Candidates

  • Tim Walz  

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Gil Gutknecht +2.2

    Pundit Predictions

      Pundit Date Prediction
        Stuart Rothenberg   11/06 Toss-up
        Charlie Cook 10/31 Toss-up
        Larry Sabato 11/06 Gutknecht by 2 (Tilts GOP)
        Congressional Quarterly 10/21 Gutknecht by 4 (Leans GOP)

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Gutknecht Walz
        Constituent Dynamics 10/26 50% 47%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Pundit predictions 1.5 70% 1.1
        Head-to-head polls 3.0 25% 0.8
        District partisanship 7.5 5% 0.4

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Gutknecht +2.2 Weak GOP Hold
        November 1, 2006 Gutknecht +3.2 Weak GOP Hold
        October 31, 2006 Gutknecht +3.9 Weak GOP Hold
        October 21, 2006 Gutknecht +3.4 Weak GOP Hold
        Preliminary ----- possibly competitive


    District 6


    OPEN SEAT:  Republican Mark Kennedy is retiring after 3 terms in 2007.  He is running for the U.S. Senate.

    GOP Candidates

  • Michele Bachmann - Minnesota State Senator  

    Democrat (DFL) Candidates

  • Patty Wetterling  

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Michele Bachman +2.9

    Pundit Predictions

      Pundit Date Prediction
        Stuart Rothenberg   10/21 Toss-up
        Charlie Cook 09/07 Toss-up
        Larry Sabato 11/06 Bachman by 2 (Tilts GOP)
        Congressional Quarterly 08/09 Toss-up

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Bachman Wetterling
        SurveyUSA 11/03 49% 42%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Pundit predictions 0.5 70% 0.4
        Head-to-head polls 7.0 25% 1.8
        District partisanship 15 5% 0.8

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Bachman +2.9 Weak GOP Hold
        October 30, 2006 Bachman +2.5 Weak GOP Hold
        October 26, 2006 Bachman +0.3 Weak GOP Hold
        October 21, 2006 Wetterling +2.5 Weak DEM Gain
        October 17, 2006 Wetterling +2.3 Weak DEM Gain
        October 13, 2006 Bachman +0.5 Weak GOP Hold
        October 10, 2006 Bachman +1.9 Weak GOP Hold
        October 7, 2006 Bachman +3.4 Weak GOP Hold
        September 19, 2006 Bachman +4.1 Weak GOP Hold
        September 13, 2006 Bachman +2.2 Weak GOP Hold
        Preliminary ----- Weak GOP Hold

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 2:  John Kline (R)-inc vs. Coleen Rowley (D)
  • District 3:  Jim Ramstad (R)-inc vs. Wendy Wilde (D)
  • District 4:  Betty McCollum (D)-inc vs. Obi Sium (R)
  • District 5:  OPEN:  Keith Elison (D)-inc vs. Alan Fine (R)
  • District 7:  Collin Peterson (D)-inc vs. Michael Barrett (R)
  • District 8:  James Oberstar (D)-inc vs. Rod Grams (R)

    Election Timeline


  • July 18, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • September 12, 2006 - Primary elections
  • November 7, 2006 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 1 GOP, 1 DEM
        Representatives 4 GOP, 4 DEM
      State Government
        Governor GOP
        Lt. Governor - tied to Governor GOP
        State Senate - DEM control 29 GOP, 38 DEM
        State House - GOP control 68 GOP, 66 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Tim Pawlenty (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2006
  • Lt. Governor:  Carol Molnau (R) - 1st term, tied to Governor
  • Senior Senator:  Mark Dayton (D) - 1st term, retiring in 2007
  • Junior Senator:  Norm Coleman (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2008
  • House District 1:  Gil Gutknetch Jr. (R) - 6th term
  • House District 2:  John Kline (R) - 2nd term
  • House District 3:  Jim Ramstad (R) - 8th term
  • House District 4:  Betty McCollum (D) - 3rd term
  • House District 5:  Martin Sabo (D) - 14th term (retiring)
  • House District 6:  Mark Kennedy (R) - 3rd term (running for Senate)
  • House District 7:  Collin Peterson (D) - 8th term
  • House District 8:  James Oberstar (D) - 16th term (might retire)

    Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop:  Mississippi
    Previous Stop:  Michigan

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

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