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 Election 2006 Projections

 


 


Mississippi

Latest News and Updates


  • Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Lott +36 (down 2) - 10/27/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Lott +38 (up 3) - 10/07/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Lott +35 (down 5) - 08/18/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Lott +40 (up 3) - 07/26/06
  • Tracking initiated - 07/13/06

    Conservative Ranking


    Mississippi is the 15th most conservative state, voting 17.2% more Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Mississippi is trending REPUBLICAN.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    Mississippi ranks 10th among the 50 states.

    Senate Race


    Incumbent:  Former GOP majority leader Trent Lott is seeking a 4th term in 2006.  He faces no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Trent Lott - Incumbent  

    Democrat Candidates

  • Erik Fleming - Mississippi State Representative  

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Trent Lott +33.6

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Lott Fleming
        SurveyUSA 2/13 64% 30%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls 34.0 80% 27.2
        Incumbent approval 36 15% 5.4
        State partisanship 19.6 5% 1.0

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Lott +33.6 Strong GOP Hold
        October 27, 2006 Lott +33.6 Strong GOP Hold
        October 7, 2006 Lott +33.9 Strong GOP Hold
        August 18, 2006 Lott +33.5 Strong GOP Hold
        July 31, 2006 Lott +34.2 Strong GOP Hold
        July 13, 2006 Lott +33.8 Strong GOP Hold
        Preliminary ----- Strong GOP Hold

    Governor's Race


    No race in 2006

    Competitive House Races


    No competitive races in 2006

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Roger Wicker (R)-inc vs. Ken Hurt (D)
  • District 2:  Bennie Thompson? (D)-inc vs. Yvonne Brown (R)
  • District 3:  Chip Pickering, Jr. (R)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 4:  Gene Taylor (D)-inc vs. Randy McDonnell (R)

    Election Timeline


  • March 1, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • June 6, 2006 - Primary elections
  • June 27, 2006 - Primary runoff
  • November 7, 2006 - Election day
  • November 21, 2006 - Runoff

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 2 GOP
        Representatives 2 GOP, 2 DEM
      State Government
        Governor GOP
        Lt. Governor GOP
        State Senate - DEM control 24 GOP, 28 DEM
        State House - DEM control 47 GOP, 75 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Haley Barbour (R) - term, up for re-election in 2007
  • Lt. Governor:  Amy Tuck (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2007
  • Senior Senator:  Thad Cochran (R) - 5th term, up for re-election in 2008
  • Junior Senator:  Trent Lott (R) - 3rd term, up for re-election in 2006
  • House District 1:  Roger Wicker (R) - 6th term
  • House District 2:  Bennie Thompson (D) - 7th term
  • House District 3:  Chip Pickering, Jr. (R) - 5th term
  • House District 4:  Gene Taylor (D) - 9th term

    Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop:  Missouri
    Previous Stop:  Minnesota

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

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