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 Election 2006 Projections

 


 


Missouri

Latest News and Updates


  • Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
  • Sen:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak GOP Hold to Weak Dem Gain - 11/01/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  McCaskill 48%, Talent 47% - 11/01/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA:  McCaskill 49%, Talent 46% - 11/01/06
  • Sen:  CNN:  Talent 49%, McCaskill 49% - 11/01/06
  • Sen:  Research 2000:  Talent 47%, McCaskill 47% - 10/30/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Talent 50%, McCaskill 48% - 10/27/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Talent -5 (down 9) - 10/27/06
  • Sen:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak Dem Gain to Weak GOP Hold - 10/25/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA:  Talent 48%, McCaskill 45% - 10/25/06
  • Sen:  LA Times/Bloomberg:  Talent 48%, McCaskill 45% - 10/25/06
  • Sen:  Mason-Dixon:  McCaskill 46%, Talent 43% - 10/25/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Talent 43%, McCaskill 42% - 10/16/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA:  McCaskill 51%, Talent 42% - 10/13/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  McCaskill 44%, Talent 43% - 10/09/06
  • Sen:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak GOP Hold to Weak Dem Gain - 10/07/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Talent +4 (down 7) - 10/07/06
  • Sen:  USA Today/Gallup:  McCaskill 48%, Talent 45% - 10/07/06
  • Sen:  Mason-Dixon:  Talent 43%, McCaskill 43% - 10/02/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA:  McCaskill 48%, Talent 47% - 09/15/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  McCaskill 45%, Talent 42% - 09/15/06
  • Sen:  USA Today/Gallup:  Talent 50%, McCaskill 44% - 09/04/06
  • Sen:  Research 2000:  McCaskill 47%, Talent 46% - 09/04/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Talent 46%, McCaskill 44% - 08/22/06
  • Sen:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak Dem Gain to Weak GOP Hold - 08/18/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Talent +11 (up 6) - 08/18/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA:  McCaskill 47%, Talent 46% - 08/16/06
  • Primary winners posted - 08/09/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  McCaskill 45%, Talent 42% - 07/31/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Talent +5 (unchanged) - 07/26/06
  • Tracking initiated - 07/13/06

    Conservative Ranking


    Missouri is the 25th most conservative state, voting 4.7% more Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Missouri is trending REPUBLICAN.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    Missouri ranks 17th among the 50 states.

    Senate Race


    Incumbent:  Freshman GOP Incumbent Jim Talent seeks re-election in 2006.  He faces only token primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Jim Talent - Incumbent  
  • Isaiah Hair, Jr.
  • Joyce Lea
  • Roxie Fausnaught
  • Scott Babbitt

    Democrat Candidates

  • Claire McCaskill - Missouri State Auditor  
  • Bill Young
  • Mikhail Tsukerman

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Claire McCaskill +2.5 - DEM pick-up

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Talent McCaskill
        Rasmussen 11/05 49% 48%
        SurveyUSA 11/05 42% 51%
        USA Today/Gallup 11/04 45% 49%
        Mason-Dixon 11/03 45% 46%
        CNN 10/29 49% 49%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls -2.6 80% -2.1
        Incumbent approval -5 15% -0.8
        State partisanship 7.2 5% 0.4

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Prediction McCaskill +2.5 Weak DEM Gain
        November 1, 2006 McCaskill +0.6 Weak DEM Gain
        October 30, 2006 Talent +0.4 Weak GOP Hold
        October 27, 2006 Talent +0.6 Weak GOP Hold
        October 25, 2006 Talent +1.8 Weak GOP Hold
        October 16, 2006 McCaskill +1.2 Weak DEM Gain
        October 13, 2006 McCaskill +1.6 Weak DEM Gain
        October 9, 2006 McCaskill +0.04 Weak DEM Gain
        October 7, 2006 McCaskill +0.4 Weak DEM Gain
        September 15, 2006 Talent +2.2 Weak GOP Hold
        September 4, 2006 Talent +3.2 Weak GOP Hold
        August 22, 2006 Talent +2.4 Weak GOP Hold
        August 18, 2006 Talent +0.4 Weak GOP Hold
        August 16, 2006 McCaskill +0.5 Weak DEM Gain
        July 31, 2006 McCaskill +2.5 Weak DEM Gain
        July 13, 2006 McCaskill +0.1 Weak DEM Gain
        Preliminary ----- Weak GOP Hold

    Governor's Race


    No race in 2006

    Competitive House Races


    No competitive races in 2006

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Lacy Clay Jr. (D)-inc vs. Mark Byrne (R)
  • District 2:  Todd Akin (R)-inc vs. George Weber (D)
  • District 3:  Russ Carnahan (D)-inc vs. David Bertelsen (R)
  • District 4:  Ike Skelton (D)-inc vs. James Noland (R)
  • District 5:  Emmanuel Cleaver, II (D)-inc vs. Jacob Turk (R)
  • District 6:  Samuel Graves, Jr. (R)-inc vs. Sara Jo Shettles (D)
  • District 7:  Roy Blunt (R)-inc vs. Jack Truman (D)
  • District 8:  Jo Ann Emerson (R)-inc vs. Veronica Hambacker (D)
  • District 9:  Kenny Hulshof (R)-inc vs. Duane Burghard (D)

    Election Timeline


  • March 28, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • August 8, 2006 - Primary elections
  • November 7, 2006 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 2 GOP
        Representatives 5 GOP, 4 DEM
      State Government
        Governor GOP
        Lt. Governor GOP
        State Senate - GOP control 22 GOP, 11 DEM, 1 vacant
        State House - GOP control 96 GOP, 64 DEM, 3 vacant

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Matt Blunt- 1st term, up for re-election in 2008
  • Lt. Governor:  Peter Kinder - 1st term, up for re-election in 2008
  • Senior Senator:  Kit Bond - 4th term, up for re-election in 2010
  • Junior Senator:  Jim Talent - 1st term (partial), up for re-election in 2006
  • House District 1:  Lacy Clay Jr. (D) - 3rd term
  • House District 2:  Todd Akin (R) - 3rd term
  • House District 3:  Russ Carnahan (D) - 1st term
  • House District 4:  Ike Skelton (D) - 15th term
  • House District 5:  Emmanuel Cleaver, II (D) - 1st term
  • House District 6:  Samuel Graves, Jr. (R) - 3rd term
  • House District 7:  Roy Blunt (R) - 5th term
  • House District 8:  Jo Ann Emerson (R) - 5th term
  • House District 9:  Kenny Hulshof (R) - 5th term

    Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop:  Montana
    Previous Stop:  Mississippi

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

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