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 Election 2006 Projections

 


 


Montana

Latest News and Updates


  • Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
  • Sen:  RATING CHANGE:  Mod DEM Gain to Weak DEM Gain - 11/02/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Tester 50%, Burns 46% - 11/02/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Tester 51%, Burns 48% - 10/27/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Burns -16 (up 5) - 10/27/06
  • Sen:  Mason-Dixon:  Tester 46%, Burns 43% - 10/25/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Tester 48%, Burns 46% - 10/20/06
  • Sen:  Montana State University:  Tester 47%, Burns 36% - 10/19/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Tester 50%, Burns 44% - 10/13/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Burns -21 (down 5) - 10/07/06
  • Sen:  Mason-Dixon:  Tester 47%, Burns 40% - 10/02/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Tester 50%, Burns 43% - 09/25/06
  • Sen:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak DEM Gain to Mod DEM Gain - 09/18/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Tester 52%, Burns 43% - 09/18/06
  • Sen:  USA Today/Gallup:  Tester 48%, Burns 45% - 09/04/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Burns -16 (up 4) - 08/18/06
  • Sen:  RATING CHANGE:  Mod DEM Gain to Weak DEM Gain - 08/11/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Burns 47%, Tester 47% - 08/11/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Burns -20 (up 4) - 07/26/06
  • Tracking initiated - 07/13/06

    Conservative Ranking


    Montana is the 13th most conservative state, voting 18.0% more Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Montana is trending REPUBLICAN.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    Montana ranks 13th among the 50 states.

    Senate Race


    Incumbent:  GOPer Conrad Burns is up for a 4th term 2006.  He faced primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Conrad Burns - Incumbent  
  • Bob Kelleher
  • Bob Keenan - Montana State Senate Minority Leader
  • Daniel Neste Huffman

    Democrat Candidates

  • John Morrison - Montana State Auditor
  • Jon Tester - Montana State Senator  
  • Kenneth Marcure

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Jon Tester +4.3 - DEM pick-up

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Burns Tester
        Rasmussen 11/04 48% 50%
        USA Today/Gallup 11/04 41% 50%
        Mason-Dixon 11/02 47% 47%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls -3.7 80% -2.9
        Incumbent approval -16 15% -2.4
        State partisanship 20.5 5% 1.0

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Tester +4.3 Mod DEM Gain
        October 27, 2006 Tester +5.9 Mod DEM Gain
        October 25, 2006 Tester +6.4 Mod DEM Gain
        October 21, 2006 Tester +7.5 Mod DEM Gain
        October 19, 2006 Tester +8.5 Mod DEM Gain
        October 13, 2006 Tester +7.3 Mod DEM Gain
        October 7, 2006 Tester +7.7 Mod DEM Gain
        October 2, 2006 Tester +5.9 Mod DEM Gain
        September 25, 2006 Tester +5.4 Mod DEM Gain
        September 18, 2006 Tester +6.2 Mod DEM Gain
        August 18, 2006 Tester +2.6 Weak DEM Gain
        August 11, 2006 Tester +3.2 Weak DEM Gain
        July 31, 2006 Tester +6.0 Mod DEM Gain
        July 13, 2006 Tester +6.6 Mod DEM Gain
        Preliminary ----- Weak DEM Gain

    Governor's Race


    No race in 2006

    Competitive House Races


    No competitive races in 2006

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Dennis Rehberg (R)-inc vs. Monica Lindeen (D)

    Election Timeline


  • March 23, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • June 6, 2006 - Primary elections
  • November 7, 2006 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 1 GOP, 1 DEM
        Representatives 1 GOP
      State Government
        Governor DEM
        Lt. Governor - tied to Governor GOP
        State Senate - DEM control 23 GOP, 27 DEM
        State House 50 GOP, 50 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Brian Schweitzer (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2008
  • Lt. Governor:  John Bohlinger (R) - 1st term, tied to Governor (mixed ticket)
  • Senior Senator:  Max Baucus (D) - 5th term, up for re-election in 2008
  • Junior Senator:  Conrad Burns (R) - 3rd term, up for re-election in 2006
  • House District 1:  Dennis Rehberg (R) - 3rd term

    Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop:  Nebraska
    Previous Stop:  Missouri

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

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