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 Election 2006 Projections

 


 


Nebraska

Latest News and Updates


  • Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Nelson +31 (up 4) - 10/27/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Heineman +45 (down 2) - 10/23/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Nelson 54%, Ricketts 34%:  - 10/20/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Heineman 70%, Hahn 22%:  - 10/20/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Nelson +27 (down 13) - 10/07/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Nelson 55%, Ricketts 32%:  - 09/26/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Heineman 72%, Hahn 18%:  - 09/26/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Heineman +47 (up 12) - 09/25/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Heineman +35 (down 6) - 08/27/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Nelson +40 (down 1) - 08/18/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Nelson 55%, Ricketts 32%:  - 08/18/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Heineman 71%, Hahn 18%:  - 08/18/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Nelson +41 (down 7) - 07/26/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Heineman +41 (down 16) - 07/23/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Nelson 57%, Ricketts 31%:  - 07/18/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Heineman 66%, Hahn 21%:  - 07/18/06
  • Tracking initiated - 07/12/06

    Conservative Ranking


    Nebraska is the 4th most conservative state, voting 30.8% more Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Nebraska is trending REPUBLICAN.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    Nebraska ranks 16th among the 50 states.

    Senate Race


    Incumbent:  Democrat Ben Nelson is seeking re-election for the first time in 2006.  He faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • David Kramer - Nebraska State GOP Chairman
  • Donald Stenberg - Former Nebraska Attorney General
  • Peter Ricketts - Former COO of Ameritrade  

    Democrat Candidates

  • Ben Nelson - Incumbent  

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Ben Nelson +19.0

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Ricketts Nelson
        Rasmussen 10/20 34% 54%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls 20.0 80% 16.0
        Incumbent approval 31 15% 4.7
        State partisanship -33.2 5% -1.7

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Nelson +19.0 Strong DEM Hold
        October 27, 2006 Nelson +19.0 Strong DEM Hold
        October 21, 2006 Nelson +18.4 Strong DEM Hold
        October 7, 2006 Nelson +20.8 Strong DEM Hold
        August 18, 2006 Nelson +22.7 Strong DEM Hold
        July 31, 2006 Nelson +25.3 Strong DEM Hold
        July 18, 2006 Nelson +26.3 Strong DEM Hold
        Preliminary ----- Strong DEM Hold

    Governor's Race


    Incumbent:  Republican Dave Heineman assumed office when former Governor Mike Johanns was appointed Secretary of Agriculture.  Heineman is seeking election to a first full term in 2006.  He faced primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Dave Heineman - Acting Governor of Nebraska  
  • Tom Osborne - Nebraska Representative to the U.S. House
  • David Nabity - Businessman

    Democrat Candidates

  • David Hahn - Attorney  

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Dave Heineman +46.8

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Heineman Hahn
        Rasmussen 10/20 70% 22%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls 48.0 80% 38.4
        Incumbent approval 45 15% 6.8
        State partisanship 33.2 5% 1.7

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Heineman +46.8 Strong GOP Hold
        October 23, 2006 Heineman +46.8 Strong GOP Hold
        October 21, 2006 Heineman +47.1 Strong GOP Hold
        September 26, 2006 Heineman +51.9 Strong GOP Hold
        September 25, 2006 Heineman +51.1 Strong GOP Hold
        August 27, 2006 Heineman +49.4 Strong GOP Hold
        August 18, 2006 Heineman +50.2 Strong GOP Hold
        July 23, 2006 Heineman +42.6 Strong GOP Hold
        July 18, 2006 Heineman +45.0 Strong GOP Hold
        Preliminary ----- Strong GOP Hold

    Competitive House Races


    No competitive races in 2006

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Jeff Fortenberry (R)-inc vs. Maxine Moul (D)
  • District 2:  Lee Terry (R)-inc vs. Jim Esch (D)
  • District 3:  OPEN:  Adrian Smith (R) vs. Scott Kleeb (D)

    Election Timeline


  • February 15, 2006 - Incumbent filing deadline
  • March 1, 2006 - Non-incumbent filing deadline
  • May 9, 2006 - Primary elections
  • November 7, 2006 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 1 GOP, 1 DEM
        Representatives 3 GOP
      State Government
        Governor GOP
        Lt. Governor - tied to Governor vacant
        State Senate 49 members

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Dave Heinaman (R) - up for first full-term election in 2006
  • Senior Senator:  Chuck Hagel (R) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2008
  • Junior Senator:  Ben Nelson (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2006
  • House District 1:  Jeff Fortenberry (R) - 1st term
  • House District 2:  Lee Terry (R) - 4th term
  • House District 3:  Tom Osborne (R) - 3rd term (running for Governor)

    Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop:  Nevada
    Previous Stop:  Montana

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

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