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 Election 2006 Projections

 


 


Nevada

Latest News and Updates


  • Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
  • Gov:  Mason-Dixon:  Gibbons 44%, Titus 40% - 11/02/06
  • CD-3:  Tracking initiated - 11/01/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Ensign 54%, Carter 42% - 11/01/06
  • Gov:  RATING CHANGE:  Mod GOP Hold to Weak GOP Hold - 11/01/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Gibbons 48%, Titus 46% - 11/01/06
  • CD-2:  Research 2000:  Heller 48%, Derby 40% - 10/30/06
  • Sen:  Research 2000:  Ensign 55%, Carter 41% - 10/30/06
  • Sen:  RATING CHANGE:  Strong GOP Hold to Mod GOP Hold - 10/27/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Ensign +12 (down 7) - 10/27/06
  • Gov:  Research 2000:  Gibbons 47%, Titus 41% - 10/27/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Guinn +15 (down 2) - 10/23/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Ensign 50%, Carter 42% - 10/20/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Gibbons 51%, Titus 43% - 10/20/06
  • CD-2:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak GOP Hold to Mod GOP Hold - 10/16/06
  • Replaced TBC with Stuart Rothenberg in House race pundit projections - 10/16/06
  • CD-2:  RATING CHANGE:  not competitive to Weak GOP Hold - 10/13/06
  • CD-2:  Tracking initiated - 10/13/06
  • Sen:  RATING CHANGE:  Mod GOP Hold to Strong GOP Hold - 10/07/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Ensign +19 (up 7) - 10/07/06
  • Sen:  Mason-Dixon:  Ensign 58%, Carter 35% - 09/26/06
  • Gov:  Mason-Dixon:  Gibbons 45%, Titus 36% - 09/25/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Guinn +17 (up 4) - 09/25/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Ensign 50%, Carter 41% - 09/22/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Gibbons 49%, Titus 35% - 09/22/06
  • Gov:  Research 2000:  Gibbons 45%, Titus 38% - 09/18/06
  • Gov:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak GOP Hold to Mod GOP Hold - 09/15/06
  • Tracking initiated and primary winners posted - 09/15/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Ensign +12 (down 2) - 08/18/06
  • Sen:  Mason-Dixon:  Ensign 54%, Carter 33% - 08/14/06
  • Sen:  RATING CHANGE:  Strong GOP Hold to Mod GOP Hold - 08/08/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Ensign 46%, Carter 39% - 08/08/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Ensign +14 (down 1) - 07/26/06
  • Sen:  Tracking initiated (assumes Ensign/Carter match-up) - 07/13/06

    Conservative Ranking


    Nevada is the 28th most conservative state, voting 0.1% more Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Nevada is trending DEMOCRAT.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    Nevada ranks 45th among the 50 states.

    Senate Race


    Incumbent:  Republican incumbent John Ensign is seeking re-election for the first time in 2006.  He faced only token primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • John Ensign - Incumbent  
  • Edward Hamilton

    Democrat Candidates

  • Jack Carter - Son of Former U.S. President Jimmy Carter  
  • Ruby Jee Tun

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  John Ensign +12.3

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Ensign Carter
        Rasmussen 11/01 54% 42%
        Research 2000 10/30 55% 41%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls 13.0 80% 10.4
        Incumbent approval 12 15% 1.8
        State partisanship 2.6 5% 0.1

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Ensign +12.3 Strong GOP Hold
        November 1, 2006 Ensign +12.3 Strong GOP Hold
        October 30, 2006 Ensign +10.7 Strong GOP Hold
        October 27, 2006 Ensign +8.3 Strong GOP Hold
        October 7, 2006 Ensign +15.8 Strong GOP Hold
        September 26, 2006 Ensign +14.7 Mod GOP Hold
        September 22, 2006 Ensign +9.1 Mod GOP Hold
        August 18, 2006 Ensign +13.1 Mod GOP Hold
        August 14, 2006 Ensign +13.4 Mod GOP Hold
        August 8, 2006 Ensign +13.0 Mod GOP Hold
        July 31, 2006 Ensign +23.4 Strong GOP Hold
        July 13, 2006 Ensign +23.6 Strong GOP Hold
        Preliminary ----- Strong GOP Hold

    Governor's Race


    Incumbent:  GOPer Kenny Guinn is term-limited and cannot seek a third term in 2006.

    GOP Candidates

  • Lorraine Hunt - Lt. Governor of Nevada
  • Jim Gibbons - Nevada Representative to the U.S. House  
  • Melody Damayo
  • Stanleigh Lusak
  • Bob Beers - Nevada State Senator

    Democrat Candidates

  • Dina Titus - Nevada State Senator  
  • Jim Gibson - Henderson Mayor
  • Leola McConnell

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Jim Gibbons +4.5

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Gibbons Titus
        Rasmussen 10/30 48% 46%
        Mason-Dixon 10/27 44% 40%
        Research 2000 10/25 47% 41%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls 4.0 90% 3.6
        Incumbent approval 15 5% 0.8
        State partisanship 2.6 5% 0.1

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Gibbons +4.5 Weak GOP Hold
        November 1, 2006 Gibbons +4.5 Weak GOP Hold
        October 27, 2006 Gibbons +7.2 Mod GOP Hold
        October 23, 2006 Gibbons +8.5 Mod GOP Hold
        October 21, 2006 Gibbons +8.6 Mod GOP Hold
        September 25, 2006 Gibbons +10.0 Mod GOP Hold
        September 22, 2006 Gibbons +10.2 Mod GOP Hold
        September 18, 2006 Gibbons +7.1 Mod GOP Hold
        September 16, 2006 Gibbons +8.9 Mod GOP Hold
        Preliminary ----- Weak GOP Hold

    Competitive House Races


    District 2


    OPEN SEAT:  GOP incumbent Jim Gibbons is running for Nevada governor in 2006.

    GOP Candidates

  • Dean Heller  

    Democrat Candidates

  • Jill Talbot Derby  

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Dean Heller +7.1

    Pundit Predictions

      Pundit Date Prediction
        Stuart Rothenberg   10/13 Heller by 8 (GOP Favored)
        Charlie Cook 10/13 Heller by 4 (Leans GOP)
        Larry Sabato 10/13 Heller by 4 (Leans GOP)
        Congressional Quarterly 10/13 Heller by 4 (Leans GOP)

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Heller Derby
        Mason-Dixon 10/30 47% 39%
        Research 2000 10/25 48% 40%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Pundit predictions 5.0 45% 2.3
        Head-to-head polls 8.0 50% 4.0
        District partisanship 16.0 5% 0.8

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Heller +7.1 Weak GOP Hold
        October 30, 2006 Heller +6.3 Weak GOP Hold
        October 16, 2006 Heller +5.1 Weak GOP Hold
        October 13, 2006 Heller +4.5 Weak GOP Hold
        Preliminary ----- not competitive


    District 3


    Incumbent:  Republican incumbent Jon Porter is seeking re-election to a third term in 2006.  He faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Jon Porter - Incumbent  

    Democrat Candidates

  • Tessa Hafen  

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Jon Porter 4.8

    Pundit Predictions

      Pundit Date Prediction
        Stuart Rothenberg   11/01 Porter by 2 (Tilts GOP)
        Charlie Cook 11/01 Toss-up
        Larry Sabato 11/06 Porter by 2 (Tilts GOP)
        Congressional Quarterly 10/13 Porter by 4 (Leans GOP)

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Porter Hafen
        Mason-Dixon 10/30 46% 39%
        Constituent Dynamics 10/26 51% 44%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Pundit predictions 2.0 45% 0.9
        Head-to-head polls 7.0 50% 3.5
        District partisanship 7.5 5% 0.4

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Porter +4.8 Weak GOP Hold
        November 1, 2006 Porter +3.9 Weak GOP Hold
        Preliminary ----- not competitive

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Shelley Berkley (D)-inc vs. Kenneth Wegner (R)

    Election Timeline


  • May 19, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • August 15, 2006 - Primary elections
  • November 7, 2006 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 1 GOP, 1 DEM
        Representatives 2 GOP, 1 DEM
      State Government
        Governor GOP
        Lt. Governor - tied to Governor GOP
        State Senate - GOP control 12 GOP, 9 DEM
        State House - DEM control 15 GOP, 26 DEM, 1 vacant

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Kenny Guinn (R) - 2nd term, term-limited in 2006
  • Lt. Governor:  Lorraine Hunt (R) - 2nd term, tied to Governor (running for Governor)
  • Senior Senator:  Harry Reid (D) - 4th term, up for re-election in 2010
  • Junior Senator:  John Ensign (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2006
  • House District 1:  Shelley Berkley (D) - 4th term
  • House District 2:  Jim Gibbons (R) - 5th term (running for Governor)
  • House District 3:  Jon Porter (R) - 2nd term

    Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop:  New Hampshire
    Previous Stop:  Nebraska

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

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