Political Weblog | 2006 Projections | 2006 Formula | 2006 Election Calendar | 2004 Results | EP Polls | The Blogging Caesar Bio

.
 Election 2006 Projections

 


 


New Hampshire

Latest News and Updates


  • Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
  • CD-2:  Tracking initiated - 11/01/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Lynch +52 (down 2) - 10/23/06
  • Gov:  American Research Group:  Lynch 59%, Coburn 29% - 09/29/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Lynch +54 (up 2) - 09/25/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA:  Lynch 73%, Coburn 23% - 09/20/06
  • Primary winners posted - 09/13/06
  • Gov:  Research 2000:  Lynch 72%, Coburn 21% - 09/18/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Lynch +52 (up 3) - 08/27/06
  • Gov:  Univ. of New Hampshire:  Lynch 67%, Coburn 13% - 08/04/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Lynch +49 (down 1) - 07/23/06
  • Tracking initiated - 07/13/06

    Conservative Ranking


    New Hampshire is the 18th least conservative state, voting 3.8% less Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, New Hampshire is trending DEMOCRAT.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    New Hampshire ranks 48th among the 50 states.

    Senate Race


    No race in 2006

    Governor's Race


    Incumbent:  Democrat John Lynch is seeking a second term in 2006.  He faced no primary opposition

    GOP Candidates

  • Jim Coburn - New Hampshire State Representative  

    Democrat Candidates

  • John Lynch - Incumbent  

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  John Lynch +42.8

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Coburn Lynch
        ARG 09/29 29% 59%
        SurveyUSA 09/20 23% 73%
        Research 2000 09/18 21% 72%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls 43.7 80% 34.9
        Incumbent approval 52 15% 7.8
        State partisanship 1.3 5% 0.1

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Lynch +42.8 Strong DEM Hold
        October 23, 2006 Lynch +42.8 Strong DEM Hold
        September 28, 2006 Lynch +43.1 Strong DEM Hold
        September 25, 2006 Lynch +48.6 Strong DEM Hold
        September 20, 2006 Lynch +48.3 Strong DEM Hold
        September 18, 2006 Lynch +48.7 Strong DEM Hold
        August 27, 2006 Lynch +51.1 Strong DEM Hold
        August 4, 2006 Lynch +50.6 Strong DEM Hold
        July 23, 2006 Lynch +51.5 Strong DEM Hold
        July 13, 2006 Lynch +51.6 Strong DEM Hold
        Preliminary ----- Strong DEM Hold

    Competitive House Races


    District 2


    Incumbent:  Republican Charles Bass is seeking re-election to a 7th term in 2006.  He faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Charles Bass - Incumbent  

    Democrat Candidates

  • Paul Hodes  

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Paul Hodes +2.1

    Pundit Predictions

      Pundit Date Prediction
        Stuart Rothenberg   11/06 Hodes by 2 (Tilts DEM)
        Charlie Cook 11/06 Toss-up
        Larry Sabato 11/06 Hodes by 2 (Tilts DEM)
        Congressional Quarterly 11/06 Toss-up

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Bass Hodes
        Univ. of New Hampshire 11/05 48% 39%
        Research 2000 11/02 47% 46%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Pundit predictions -1.0 45% -0.5
        Head-to-head polls -3.0 25% -0.8
        District partisanship 7.5 5% 0.4

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Hodes +2.1 Weak DEM Gain
        November 1, 2006 Bass +3.1 Weak GOP Hold
        Preliminary ----- possibly competitive

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Jeb Bradley (R)-inc vs. Carol Shea-Porter (D)

    Election Timeline


  • June 16, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • September 12, 2006 - Primary elections
  • November 7, 2006 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 2 GOP
        Representatives 2 GOP
      State Government
        Governor DEM
        State Senate - GOP control 17 GOP, 7 DEM
        State House - GOP control 245 GOP, 152 DEM, 3 vac

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  John Lynch (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2006
  • Senior Senator:  Judd Gregg (R) - 4th term, up for re-election in 2010
  • Junior Senator:  John Sununu (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2008
  • House District 1:  Jeb Bradley (R) - 2nd term
  • House District 2:  Charles Bass (R) - 6th term

    Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop:  New Jersey
    Previous Stop:  Nevada

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

    Site Traffic



  • 2006 Projections


    Search This Site
    by Google

    e-mail Scott at:
    thebloggingcaesar
    @electionprojection.com


    2004 Projection Results



    2006 Projections
    State-by-State

  • Alabama
  • Alaska
  • Arizona
  • Arkansas
  • California
  • Colorado
  • Connecticut
  • Delaware
  • Florida
  • Georgia
  • Hawaii
  • Idaho
  • Illinois
  • Indiana
  • Iowa
  • Kansas
  • Kentucky
  • Louisiana
  • Maine
  • Maryland
  • Massachusetts
  • Michigan
  • Minnesota
  • Mississippi
  • Missouri
  • Montana
  • Nebraska
  • Nevada
  • New Hampshire
  • New Jersey
  • New Mexico
  • New York
  • North Carolina
  • North Dakota
  • Ohio
  • Oklahoma
  • Oregon
  • Pennsylvania
  • Rhode Island
  • South Carolina
  • South Dakota
  • Tennessee
  • Texas
  • Utah
  • Vermont
  • Virginia
  • Washington
  • West Virginia
  • Wisconsin
  • Wyoming