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 Election 2006 Projections

 


 


New Jersey

Latest News and Updates


  • Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Menendez 48%, Kean 43% - 11/02/06
  • Sen:  Fairleigh Dickinson:  Menendez 48%, Kean 38% - 11/02/06
  • Sen:  Rutgers/Eagleton:  Menendez 46%, Kean 42% - 11/02/06
  • Sen:  CNN:  Menendez 51%, Kean 44% - 11/01/06
  • Sen:  Quinnipiac:  Menendez 49%, Kean 44% - 10/31/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Menendez 45%, Kean 40% - 10/30/06
  • Sen:  Research 2000:  Menendez 48%, Kean 42% - 10/30/06
  • Sen:  CBS/NY Times:  Menendez 40%, Kean 39% - 10/27/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Menendez 45%, Kean 45% - 10/27/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Menendez -13 (down 13) - 10/27/06
  • Sen:  Mason-Dixon:  Menendez 45%, Kean 42% - 10/25/06
  • Sen:  LA Times/Bloomberg:  Menendez 45%, Kean 41% - 10/25/06
  • Sen:  Monmouth/Gannett:  Menendez 48%, Kean 39% - 10/23/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Menendez 42%, Kean 39% - 10/16/06
  • Sen:  Quinnipiac:  Menendez 49%, Kean 45% - 10/12/06
  • Sen:  USA Today/Gallup:  Menendez 46%, Kean 43% - 10/07/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Menendez 0 (up 1) - 10/07/06
  • Sen:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak GOP Gain to Weak DEM Hold - 10/05/06
  • Sen:  Farleigh Dickinson:  Menendez 46%, Kean 39% - 10/05/06
  • Sen:  Strategic Vision:  Kean 46%, Menendez 41% - 10/05/06
  • Sen:  Mason-Dixon:  Menendez 44%, Kean 41% - 10/02/06
  • Sen:  Rutgers/Eagleton:  Menendez 45%, Kean 44% - 09/28/06
  • Sen:  Monmouth/Gannett:  Kean 44%, Menendez 39% - 09/25/06
  • Sen:  Quinnipiac:  Kean 48%, Menendez 45% - 09/20/06
  • Sen:  Strategic Vision:  Kean 44%, Menendez 40% - 09/14/06
  • Sen:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak DEM Hold to Weak GOP Gain - 09/06/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Kean 44%, Menendez 39% - 09/06/06
  • Sen:  Farleigh Dickinson:  Kean 43%, Menendez 39% - 08/30/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Menendez -1 (down 7) - 08/18/06
  • Sen:  Strategic Vision:  Menendez 42%, Kean 40% - 08/17/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Menendez 44%, Kean 38% - 08/04/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Menendez +6 (up 7) - 07/26/06
  • Sen:  Farleigh Dickinson:  Menendez 43%, Kean 40% - 07/24/06
  • Sen:  Quinnipiac:  Kean 40%, Menendez 38% - 07/17/06

    Conservative Ranking


    New Jersey is the 13th least conservative state, voting 9.2% less Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, New Jersey's partisan trend is STEADY.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    New Jersey ranks 31st among the 50 states.

    Senate Race


    Incumbent:  Democrat Robert Menendez was appointed to this seat by Governor Jon Corzine in 2005.  He will seek election in 2006.  He faced only token primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Tom Kean, Jr. - New Jersey State Senator  
  • John Ginty - Financial Analyst

    Democrat Candidates

  • Robert Menendez - Incumbent  
  • James Kelly - Former Candidate

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Robert Menendez +4.2

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Kean Menendez
        USA Today/Gallup 11/04 40% 50%
        Mason-Dixon 11/03 41% 48%
        Monmouth/Gannett 11/03 42% 45%
        Marist 11/03 42% 50%
        Rasmussen 11/01 43% 48%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls 6.6 80% 5.3
        Incumbent approval -13 15% -2.0
        State partisanship 6.7 5% 0.3
        Other issues Adjustment: 0.5

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Menendez +3.2 Weak DEM Hold
        November 2, 2006 Menendez +3.2 Weak DEM Hold
        November 1, 2006 Menendez +2.7 Weak DEM Hold
        October 31, 2006 Menendez +1.8 Weak DEM Hold
        October 30, 2006 Menendez +1.9 Weak DEM Hold
        October 27, 2006 Menendez +1.6 Weak DEM Hold
        October 25, 2006 Menendez +4.5 Weak DEM Hold
        October 23, 2006 Menendez +4.9 Weak DEM Hold
        October 12, 2006 Menendez +2.8 Weak DEM Hold
        October 7, 2006 Menendez +2.3 Weak DEM Hold
        October 5, 2006 Menendez +0.8 Weak DEM Hold
        October 2, 2006 Kean +0.6 Weak GOP Gain
        September 28, 2006 Kean +1.9 Weak GOP Gain
        September 25, 2006 Kean +2.7 Weak GOP Gain
        September 20, 2006 Kean +2.5 Weak GOP Gain
        September 14, 2006 Kean +2.8 Weak GOP Gain
        September 6, 2006 Kean +1.2 Weak GOP Gain
        August 30, 2006 Menendez +1.8 Weak DEM Hold
        August 18, 2006 Menendez +2.5 Weak DEM Hold
        August 17, 2006 Menendez +3.5 Weak DEM Hold
        July 31, 2006 Menendez +4.3 Weak DEM Hold
        July 24, 2006 Menendez +3.3 Weak DEM Hold
        July 17, 2006 Menendez +3.5 Weak DEM Hold
        Preliminary ----- Weak DEM Hold

    Governor's Race


    No race in 2006

    Competitive House Races


    No competitive races in 2006

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Robert Andrews (D)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 2:  Frank LoBiondo (R)-inc vs. Viola Thomas-Hughes (D)
  • District 3:  Jim Saxton (R)-inc vs. Richard Sexton (D)
  • District 4:  Christopher Smith (R)-inc vs. Carol Gay (D)
  • District 5:  Scott Garrett? (R)-inc vs. Paul Aronsohn (D)
  • District 6:  Frank Pallone, Jr. (D)-inc vs. Leigh-Ann Bellow (R)
  • District 7:  Mike Ferguson (R)-inc vs. Linda Stender (D) - possible competitive race
  • District 8:  Bill Pascrell, Jr. (D)-inc vs. Jose Sandoval (R)
  • District 9:  Steven Rothman(D)-inc vs. Vince Micco (R)
  • District 10:  Donald Payne (D)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 11:  Rodney Frelinghuysen (R)-inc vs. Tom Wyka (D)
  • District 12:  Rush Holt (D)-inc vs. Joseph Sinagra (R)
  • District 13:  Albio Sires (D) vs. John Guarini (R)

    Election Timeline


  • April 10, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • June 6, 2006 - Primary elections
  • November 7, 2006 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 2 DEM
        Representatives 6 GOP, 6 DEM, 1 vacant
      State Government
        Governor DEM
        State Senate - DEM control 18 GOP, 22 DEM
        State House - DEM control 31 GOP, 49 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Jon Corzine (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2009
  • Senior Senator:  Frank Lautenberg (D) - 4th term, up for re-election in 2008
  • Junior Senator:  Robert Menendez (D) - appointed in 2006, up for re-election in 2006
  • House District 1:  Robert Andrews (D) - 8th term
  • House District 2:  Frank LoBiondo (R) - 6th term
  • House District 3:  Jim Saxton (R) - 11th term
  • House District 4:  Christopher Smith (R) - 13th term
  • House District 5:  Scott Garrett (R) - 2nd term
  • House District 6:  Frank Pallone, Jr. (D) - 10th term
  • House District 7:  Mike Ferguson (R) - 3rd term
  • House District 8:  Bill Pascrell, Jr. (D) - 5th term
  • House District 9:  Steven Rothman(D) - 5th term
  • House District 10:  Donald Payne (D) - 9th term
  • House District 11:  Rodney Frelinghuysen (R) - 6th term
  • House District 12:  Rush Holt (D) - 4th term
  • House District 13:  vacant - Robert Menendez (D) was appointed to the Senate

    Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop:  New Mexico
    Previous Stop:  New Hampshire

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

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