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 Election 2006 Projections

 


 


New Mexico

Latest News and Updates


  • Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Bingaman +27 (up 2) - 10/27/06
  • CD-1:  Albuquerque Journal:  Madrid 45%, Wilson 42% - 10/24/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Richardson +42 (up 1) - 10/23/06
  • CD-1:  SurveyUSA:  Madrid 53%, Wilson 45% - 10/17/06
  • Replaced TBC with Stuart Rothenberg in House race pundit projections - 10/16/06
  • CD-1:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain - 10/13/06
  • CD-1:  Constituent Dynamics:  Madrid 52%, Wilson 44% - 10/13/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Bingaman +25 (up 1) - 10/07/06
  • Sen:  Albuquerque Journal:  Bingaman 65%, McCulloch 19% - 10/04/06
  • Gov:  Albuquerque Journal:  Richardson 60%, Dendahl 28% - 10/04/06
  • CD-1:  Albuquerque Journal:  Wilson 44%, Madrid 44% - 10/02/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Richardson +41 (up 8) - 09/25/06
  • CD-1:  SurveyUSA:  Wilson 51%, Madrid 46% - 09/22/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Bingaman 56%, McCulloch 32% - 09/19/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Richardson 61%, Dendahl 26% - 09/19/06
  • Gov:  Albuquerque Journal:  Richardson 57%, Dendahl 28% - 09/12/06
  • CD-1:  Constituent Dynamics:  Wilson 48%, Madrid 45% - 09/07/06
  • CD-1:  Albuquerque Journal:  Wilson 45%, Madrid 42% - 09/05/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Richardson +33 (up 1) - 08/27/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Bingaman +24 (down 1) - 08/18/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Bingaman +25 (down 3) - 07/26/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Richardson +32 (up 7) - 07/23/06
  • Tracking initiated - 07/14/06

    Conservative Ranking


    New Mexico is the 30th most conservative state, voting for President Bush but 1.7% less Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, New Mexico's partisan trend is STEADY.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    New Mexico ranks 27th among the 50 states.

    Senate Race


    Incumbent:  Democrat Jeff Bingaman seeks a 5th term in 2006.  He faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Tom Binavides - Former New Mexico State Senator
  • Steven Gavi - Retail
  • David Pfeffer - Santa Fe City Councilman
  • Allen McCulloch - Physician  
  • Joe Carraro - New Mexico State Senator

    Democrat Candidates

  • Jeff Bingaman - Incumbent  

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Jeff Bingaman +32.0

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date McCulloch Bingaman
        Albuquerque Journal 10/04 19% 65%
        Rasmussen 09/19 32% 56%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls 35.0 80% 28.0
        Incumbent approval 27 15% 4.1
        State partisanship -0.8 5% -0.04

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Bingaman +32.0 Strong DEM Hold
        October 27, 2006 Bingaman +32.0 Strong DEM Hold
        October 7, 2006 Bingaman +31.7 Strong DEM Hold
        October 4, 2006 Bingaman +31.6 Strong DEM Hold
        September 19, 2006 Bingaman +22.8 Strong DEM Hold
        August 18, 2006 Bingaman +24.4 Strong DEM Hold
        July 31, 2006 Bingaman +24.6 Strong DEM Hold
        July 14, 2006 Bingaman +25.0 Strong DEM Hold
        Preliminary ----- Strong DEM Hold

    Governor's Race


    Incumbent:  Democrat Bill Richardson seeks a 2nd term in 2006.  He faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • John Dendahl - Former New Mexico GOP Chair  
  • George Bailey - Minister
  • J.R. Damron - Radiologist

    Democrat Candidates

  • Bill Richardson - Incumbent  

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Bill Richardson +33.1

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Dendahl Richardson
        Albuquerque Journal 10/04 28% 60%
        Rasmussen 09/19 26% 61%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls 33.5 80% 26.8
        Incumbent approval 42 15% 6.3
        State partisanship -0.8 5% -0.04

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Richardson +33.1 Strong DEM Hold
        October 23, 2006 Richardson +33.1 Strong DEM Hold
        October 4, 2006 Richardson +32.9 Strong DEM Hold
        September 25, 2006 Richardson +31.7 Strong DEM Hold
        September 19, 2006 Richardson +30.5 Strong DEM Hold
        September 12, 2006 Richardson +28.1 Strong DEM Hold
        August 27, 2006 Richardson +24.1 Strong DEM Hold
        July 23, 2006 Richardson +24.0 Strong DEM Hold
        July 14, 2006 Richardson +22.9 Strong DEM Hold
        Preliminary ----- Strong DEM Hold

    Competitive House Races


    District 1


    Incumbent:  GOP incumbent Heather Wilson is up for a 5th term in 2006.  She faced only token primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Heather Wilson - Incumbent  

    Democrat Candidates

  • Patricia Madrid - New Mexico Attorney General  

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Patricia Madrid +1.6 - DEM pick-up

    Pundit Predictions

      Pundit Date Prediction
        Stuart Rothenberg   10/13 Toss-up
        Charlie Cook 06/29 Toss-up
        Larry Sabato 11/06 Madrid by 2 (Tilts DEM)
        Congressional Quarterly 10/13 Toss-up

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Wilson Madrid
        SurveyUSA 11/05 48% 50%
        Albuquerque Journal 11/02 45% 49%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Pundit predictions -0.5 45% -0.2
        Head-to-head polls -3.0 50% -1.5
        District partisanship 2.5 5% 0.1

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Madrid +1.6 Weak DEM Gain
        October 24, 2006 Madrid +2.6 Weak DEM Gain
        October 17, 2006 Madrid +3.9 Weak DEM Gain
        October 16, 2006 Madrid +1.9 Weak DEM Gain
        October 13, 2006 Madrid +1.4 Weak DEM Gain
        October 2, 2006 Wilson +2.4 Weak GOP Hold
        Septempber 22, 2006 Wilson +2.8 Weak GOP Hold
        Septempber 7, 2006 Wilson +2.5 Weak GOP Hold
        Septempber 5, 2006 Wilson +2.3 Weak GOP Hold
        July 14, 2006 Wilson +0.6 Weak GOP Hold
        Preliminary ----- Weak DEM Gain

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 2:  Steven Pearce (R)-inc vs. Albert Kissling (D)
  • District 3:  Tom Udall (D)-inc vs. Ron Dolin (R)

    Election Timeline


  • February 14, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • June 6, 2006 - Primary elections
  • November 7, 2006 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 1 GOP, 1 DEM
        Representatives 2 GOP, 1 DEM
      State Government
        Governor DEM
        Lt. Governor - tied to Governor DEM
        State Senate - DEM control 18 GOP, 24 DEM
        State House - DEM control 28 GOP, 42 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Bill Richardson (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2006
  • Lt. Governor:  Diane Denish (D) - 1st term, tied to Governor
  • Senior Senator:  Pete Domenici (R) - 6th term, up for re-election in 2008
  • Junior Senator:  Jeff Bingaman, Jr. (D) - 4th term, up for re-election in 2006
  • House District 1:  Heather Wilson (R) - 4th term
  • House District 2:  Steven Pearce (R) - 2nd term
  • House District 3:  Tom Udall (D) - 4th term

    Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop:  New York
    Previous Stop:  New Jersey

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

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