Political Weblog | 2006 Projections | 2006 Formula | 2006 Election Calendar | 2004 Results | EP Polls | The Blogging Caesar Bio

.
 Election 2006 Projections

 


 


New York

Latest News and Updates


  • Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
  • CD-25:  RATING CHANGE:  possibly competitive to Weak GOP Hold - 11/01/06
  • CD-25:  Tracking initiated - 11/01/06
  • CD-29:  Constituent Dynamics:  Massa 53%, Kuhl 42% - 10/31/06
  • CD-20:  Constituent Dynamics:  Gillibrand 53%, Sweeney 42% - 10/30/06
  • CD-20:  Grove Insights (D):  Sweeney 43%, Gillibrand 40% - 10/27/06
  • CD-24:  Pundit rating change - 10/27/06
  • CD-26:  SurveyUSA:  Reynolds 50%, Davis 45% - 10/27/06
  • CD-26:  Pundit rating change - 10/27/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Clinton +36 (up 7) - 10/27/06
  • Sen:  Marist:  Clinton 67%, Spencer 30% - 10/23/06
  • Gov:  Marist:  Spitzer 70%, Faso 22% - 10/23/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Pataki -4 (up 1) - 10/23/06
  • CD-29:  RATING CHANGE:  Mod GOP Hold to Weak GOP Hold - 10/21/06
  • CD-29:  Constituent Dynamics:  Massa 52%, Kuhl 40% - 10/21/06
  • CD-26:  RATING CHANGE:  Mod DEM Gain to Weak DEM Gain - 10/21/06
  • CD-26:  SurveyUSA:  Reynolds 49%, Davis 46% - 10/21/06
  • CD-24:  Pundit rating change - 10/21/06
  • CD-20:  RATING CHANGE:  Mod GOP Hold to Weak GOP Hold - 10/21/06
  • CD-20:  Constituent Dynamics:  Gillibrand 54%, Sweeney 41% - 10/21/06
  • Sen:  Quinnipiac:  Clinton 65%, Spencer 30% - 10/19/06
  • CD-20:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak GOP Hold to Mod GOP Hold - 10/19/06
  • CD-20:  Siena College:  Sweeney 53%, Gillibrand 39% - 10/17/06
  • Gov:  Quinnipiac:  Spitzer 71%, Faso 22% - 10/18/06
  • CD-20:  Grove Insights (D):  Sweeney 42%, Gillibrand 41% - 10/17/06
  • Sen:  Siena College:  Clinton 59%, Spencer 32% - 10/16/06
  • Gov:  Siena College:  Spitzer 68%, Faso 22% - 10/16/06
  • Replaced TBC with Stuart Rothenberg in House race pundit projections - 10/16/06
  • CD-20:  RATING CHANGE:  possibly competitive to Weak GOP Hold - 10/13/06
  • CD-20:  Tracking initiated - 10/13/06
  • CD-24:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain - 10/13/06
  • CD-24:  Constituent Dynamics:  Arcuri 53%, Meier 42% - 10/13/06
  • CD-26:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak DEM Gain to Mod DEM Gain - 10/13/06
  • CD-26:  Pundit rating change - 10/13/06
  • CD-26:  Constituent Dynamics:  Davis 56%, Reynolds 40% - 10/13/06
  • CD-29:  Pundit rating change - 10/13/06
  • CD-26:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain - 10/11/06
  • CD-26:  Pundit rating change - 10/11/06
  • CD-26:  RATING CHANGE:  possibly competitive to Weak GOP Hold - 10/07/06
  • CD-26:  SurveyUSA:  Davis 50%, Reynolds 45% - 10/07/06
  • CD-26:  Tracking initiated - 10/07/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Clinton +29 (up 3) - 10/07/06
  • Sen:  Quinnipiac:  Clinton 66%, Spencer 31% - 10/05/06
  • Gov:  Quinnipiac:  Spitzer 73%, Faso 21% - 10/04/06
  • Sen:  New York Times/CBS:  Clinton 60%, Spencer 30% - 09/29/06
  • Gov:  New York Times/CBS:  Spitzer 70%, Faso 20% - 09/29/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Pataki -5 (up 7) - 09/25/06
  • Sen:  Siena College:  Clinton 62%, Spencer 33% - 09/18/06
  • Gov:  Siena College:  Spitzer 72%, Faso 21% - 09/18/06
  • Tracking initiated and primary winners posted - 09/13/06

    Conservative Ranking


    New York is the 4th least conservative state, voting 20.8% less Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, New York is trending DEMOCRAT.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    New York ranks 32nd among the 50 states.

    Senate Race


    Incumbent:  Democrat Hillary Clinton is up for re-election for the first time in 2006.  She faced only token primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • John Spencer - Former Yonkers Mayor  
  • K.T. McFarland - Former Pentagon Official

    Democrat Candidates

  • Hillary Clinton - Incumbent  
  • Jonathan Tasini

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Hillary Clinton +32.7

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Spencer Clinton
        Marist 10/23 30% 67%
        Quinnipiac 10/19 30% 65%
        Siena College 10/16 32% 59%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls 33.0 80% 26.4
        Incumbent approval 36 15% 5.4
        State partisanship 18.3 5% 0.9

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Clinton +32.7 Strong DEM Hold
        October 27, 2006 Clinton +32.7 Strong DEM Hold
        October 23, 2006 Clinton +31.1 Strong DEM Hold
        October 16, 2006 Clinton +29.8 Strong DEM Hold
        October 7, 2006 Clinton +30.1 Strong DEM Hold
        October 5, 2006 Clinton +29.6 Strong DEM Hold
        September 29, 2006 Clinton +28.5 Strong DEM Hold
        September 18, 2006 Clinton +30.1 Strong DEM Hold
        September 13, 2006 Clinton +31.2 Strong DEM Hold
        Preliminary ----- Strong DEM Hold

    Governor's Race


    OPEN SEAT:  GOP incumbent George Pataki has decided not to run for a fourth term in 2006.

    GOP Candidates

  • John Faso - Former New York State Assemblyman  

    Democrat Candidates

  • Eliot Spitzer - New York Attorney General  
  • Thomas Suozzi - Nassau County Executive

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Eliot Spitzer +41.6 - DEM pick-up

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Faso Spitzer
        Marist 11/01 24% 69%
        Siena 11/01 24% 69%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls -45.0 90% -40.5
        Incumbent approval -4 5% -0.2
        State partisanship -18.3 5% -0.9

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Spitzer +44.5 Strong DEM Gain
        October 23, 2006 Spitzer +44.5 Strong DEM Gain
        October 18, 2006 Spitzer +44.7 Strong DEM Gain
        October 16, 2006 Spitzer +45.6 Strong DEM Gain
        October 4, 2006 Spitzer +45.9 Strong DEM Gain
        September 29, 2006 Spitzer +45.3 Strong DEM Gain
        September 25, 2006 Spitzer +44.7 Strong DEM Gain
        September 18, 2006 Spitzer +45.0 Strong DEM Gain
        September 13, 2006 Spitzer +43.8 Strong DEM Gain
        Preliminary ----- Strong DEM Gain

    Competitive House Races


    District 20


    Incumbent:  Republican John Sweeney is seeking a 5th term.  He faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • John Sweeney - Incumbent  

    Democrat Candidates

  • Kirsten Gillibrand  

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Kirsten Gillibrand +0.1

    Pundit Predictions

      Pundit Date Prediction
        Stuart Rothenberg   11/06 Toss-up
        Charlie Cook 11/06 Toss-up
        Larry Sabato 11/06 Gillibrand by 2 (Tilts DEM)
        Congressional Quarterly 10/13 Toss-up

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Sweeney Gillibrand
        Siena 11/02 43% 46%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Pundit predictions -0.5 70% -0.4
        Head-to-head polls -3.0 25% -0.8
        District partisanship 21 5% 1.1

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Gillibrand +0.1 Weak DEM Gain
        October 30, 2006 Sweeney +1.9 Weak GOP Hold
        October 27, 2006 Sweeney +1.4 Weak GOP Hold
        October 21, 2006 Sweeney +2.7 Weak GOP Hold
        October 19, 2006 Sweeney +7.7 Mod GOP Hold
        October 17, 2006 Sweeney +4.9 Weak GOP Hold
        October 16, 2006 Sweeney +3.9 Weak GOP Hold
        October 13, 2006 Sweeney +3.7 Weak GOP Hold
        Preliminary ----- possibly competitive


    District 24


    OPEN SEAT:  GOP incumbent Sherwood Boehlert is retiring at the end of his 11th term.  He is not seeking re-election in 2006.

    GOP Candidates

  • Raymond Meier - New York State Senator  

    Democrat Candidates

  • Michael Arcuri - District Attorney  
  • Leon Koziol - Attorney
  • Les Roberts - Professor
  • Bruce Titler - Former Cortland Mayor

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Michael Arcuri +4.2 - DEM pick-up

    Pundit Predictions

      Pundit Date Prediction
        Stuart Rothenberg   10/21 Arcuri by 2 (Tilts DEM)
        Charlie Cook 10/27 Arcuri by 4 (Leans DEM)
        Larry Sabato 10/27 Arcuri by 4 (Leans DEM)
        Congressional Quarterly 08/09 Toss-up

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Meier Arcuri
        Constituent Dynamics 10/10 42% 53%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Pundit predictions -2.5 70% -1.8
        Head-to-head polls -11.0 25% -2.8
        District partisanship 6 5% 0.3

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Arcuri +4.2 Weak DEM Gain
        October 27, 2006 Arcuri +4.2 Weak DEM Gain
        October 21, 2006 Arcuri +2.8 Weak DEM Gain
        October 16, 2006 Arcuri +2.5 Weak DEM Gain
        October 13, 2006 Arcuri +1.9 Weak DEM Gain
        October 11, 2006 Meier +2.4 Weak GOP Hold
        Preliminary ------ Weak GOP Hold


    District 25


    Incumbent:  Republican James Walsh is seeking a 10th term.  He faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • James Walsh - Incumbent  

    Democrat Candidates

  • Dan Maffei  
  • Leon Koziol - Attorney
  • Les Roberts - Professor
  • Bruce Titler - Former Cortland Mayor

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  James Walsh +2.5

    Pundit Predictions

      Pundit Date Prediction
        Stuart Rothenberg   11/06 Walsh by 2 (Tilts GOP)
        Charlie Cook 11/01 Walsh by 4 (Leans GOP)
        Larry Sabato 11/06 Walsh by 2 (Tilts GOP)
        Congressional Quarterly 11/01 Walsh by 8 (Likely GOP)

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Walsh Maffei
        Benenson Strategies (D) 10/26 44% 42%
        Constituent Dynamics 10/26 44% 53%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Pundit predictions 4.0 45% 1.8
        Head-to-head polls -0.5 50% -0.3
        District partisanship 19 5% 1.0

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Walsh +2.5 Weak GOP Hold
        November 1, 2006 Walsh +3.0 Weak GOP Hold
        Preliminary ------ possibly competitive


    District 26


    Incumbent:  Republican Thomas Reynolds is seeking a 5th term.  He faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Thomas Reynolds - Incumbent  

    Democrat Candidates

  • Jack Davis, Jr.  

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Thomas Reynolds +1.3

    Pundit Predictions

      Pundit Date Prediction
        Stuart Rothenberg   10/13 Toss-up
        Charlie Cook 10/06 Toss-up
        Larry Sabato 11/06 Reynolds by 2 (Tilts GOP)
        Congressional Quarterly 10/13 Davis by 4 (Leans DEM)

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Reynolds Davis
        SurveyUSA 11/03 50% 46%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Pundit predictions -0.5 70% -0.4
        Head-to-head polls 4.0 25% 1.0
        District partisanship 12 5% 0.6

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Reynolds +1.3 Weak GOP Hold
        October 27, 2006 Reynolds +1.2 Weak GOP Hold
        October 21, 2006 Davis +3.6 Mod DEM Gain
        October 16, 2006 Davis +5.6 Mod DEM Gain
        October 13, 2006 Davis +5.3 Mod DEM Gain
        October 11, 2006 Davis +0.3 Weak DEM Gain
        October 7, 2006 Reynolds +1.5 Weak GOP Hold
        Preliminary ----- not competitive


    District 29


    Incumbent:  GOP incumbent Randy Kuhl seeks a second term in 2006.  He faces no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Randy Kuhl - Incumbent  

    Democrat Candidates

  • Eric Massa - Navy Veteran  
  • David Nachbar - Corporate Executive

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Randy Kuhl +0.3

    Pundit Predictions

      Pundit Date Prediction
        Stuart Rothenberg   11/06 Kuhl by 2 (Tilts GOP)
        Charlie Cook 09/07 Kuhl by 4 (Leans GOP)
        Larry Sabato 10/13 Kuhl by 4 (Leans GOP)
        Congressional Quarterly 10/13 Kuhl by 4 (Leans GOP)

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Kuhl Massa
        Constituent Dynamics 10/26 42% 53%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Pundit predictions 3.5 70% 2.5
        Head-to-head polls -11.0 25% -2.8
        District partisanship 12 5% 0.6

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Kuhl +0.3 Weak GOP Hold
        October 31, 2006 Kuhl +0.6 Weak GOP Hold
        October 21, 2006 Kuhl +0.4 Weak GOP Hold
        October 16, 2006 Kuhl +5.9 Mod GOP Hold
        October 13, 2006 Kuhl +5.7 Mod GOP Hold
        September 13, 2006 Kuhl +5.4 Mod GOP Hold
        Preliminary ----- Weak GOP Hold

    Last Minute Competitive House Races


  • District 19:  Sue Kelly (R)-inc vs. John Hall (D)
              Election Projection:  Sue Kelly +4.1

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Tim Bishop (D)-inc vs. Italo Zanzi (R)
  • District 2:  Steve Israel (D)-inc vs. John Bugler (R)
  • District 3:  Peter King (R)-inc vs. David Mejias (D) - possible competitive race
  • District 4:  Carolyn McCarthy (D)-inc vs. Martin Blessinger (R)
  • District 5:  Gary Ackerman (D)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 6:  Gregory Meeks (D)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 7:  Joseph Crowley (D)-inc vs. Kevin Brawley (R)
  • District 8:  Jerrold Nadler (D)-inc vs. Eleanor Friedman (R)
  • District 9:  Anthony Weiner (D)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 10:  Edolphus Towns (D)-inc vs. Jonathan Anderson (R)
  • District 11:  OPEN: Yvette Clarke (D) vs. Stephen Finger (R)
  • District 12:  Nydia Velazquez (D)-inc vs. Allan Romaguera (R)
  • District 13:  Vito Fossella (R)-inc vs. Stephen Harrison (D)
  • District 14:  Carolyn Maloney (D)-inc vs. Daniel Maio (R)
  • District 15:  Charles Rangel (D)-inc vs. Edward Daniels (R)
  • District 16:  Jose Serrano (D)-inc vs. Ali Mohamed (R)
  • District 17:  Eliot Engel (D)-inc vs. Jim Faulkner (R)
  • District 18:  Nita Lowey (D)-inc vs. Richard Hoffman (R)
  • District 21:  Michael McNulty (D)-inc vs. Warren Redlich (R)
  • District 22:  Maurice Hinchey (D)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 23:  John McHugh (R)-inc vs. Robert Johnson (D)
  • District 25:  James Walsh (R)-inc vs. Dan Maffei (D)
  • District 27:  Brian Higgins (D)-inc vs. Michael McHale (R)
  • District 28:  Louise Slaughter (D)-inc vs. John Donnelly (R)

    Election Timeline


  • July 13, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • September 12, 2006 - Primary elections
  • November 7, 2006 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 2 DEM
        Representatives 9 GOP, 20 DEM
      State Government
        Governor GOP
        Lt. Governor - tied to Governor GOP
        State Senate - GOP control 35 GOP, 27 DEM
        State House - DEM control 45 GOP, 104 DEM, 1 vacant

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  George Pataki (R) - 3rd term, not seeking re-election in 2006
  • Lt. Governor:  Mary Donohue (R) - 2nd term, tied to Governor
  • Senior Senator:  Charles Schumer (D) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2010
  • Junior Senator:  Hillary Clinton (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2006
  • House District 1:  Tim Bishop (D) - 2nd term
  • House District 2:  Steve Israel (D) - 3rd term
  • House District 3:  Peter King (R) - 7th term
  • House District 4:  Carolyn McCarthy (D) - 5th term
  • House District 5:  Gary Ackerman (D) - 12th term
  • House District 6:  Gregory Meeks (D) - 5th term
  • House District 7:  Joseph Crowley (D) - 4th term
  • House District 8:  Jerrold Nadler (D) - 8th term
  • House District 9:  Anthony Weiner (D) - 4th term
  • House District 10:  Edolphus Towns (D) - 12th term
  • House District 11:  Major Owens (D) - 12th term (retiring)
  • House District 12:  Nydia Velazquez (D) - 7th term
  • House District 13:  Vito Fossella (R) - 5th term
  • House District 14:  Carolyn Maloney (D) - 7th term
  • House District 15:  Charles Rangel (D) - 18th term
  • House District 16:  Jose Serrano (D) - 9th term
  • House District 17:  Eliot Engel (D) - 9th term
  • House District 18:  Nita Lowey (D) - 9th term
  • House District 19:  Sue Kelly (R) - 6th term
  • House District 20:  John Sweeney (R) - 4th term
  • House District 21:  Michael McNulty (D) - 9th term
  • House District 22:  Maurice Hinchey (D) - 7th term
  • House District 23:  John McHugh (R) - 7th term
  • House District 24:  Sherwood Boehlert (R) - 11th term (retiring)
  • House District 25:  James Walsh (R) - 9th term
  • House District 26:  Thomas Reynolds (R) - 4th term
  • House District 27:  Brian Higgins (D) - 1st term
  • House District 28:  Louise Slaughter (D) - 10th term
  • House District 29:  Randy Kuhl (R) - 1st term

    Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop:  North Carolina
    Previous Stop:  New Mexico

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

    Site Traffic



  • 2006 Projections


    Search This Site
    by Google

    e-mail Scott at:
    thebloggingcaesar
    @electionprojection.com


    2004 Projection Results



    2006 Projections
    State-by-State

  • Alabama
  • Alaska
  • Arizona
  • Arkansas
  • California
  • Colorado
  • Connecticut
  • Delaware
  • Florida
  • Georgia
  • Hawaii
  • Idaho
  • Illinois
  • Indiana
  • Iowa
  • Kansas
  • Kentucky
  • Louisiana
  • Maine
  • Maryland
  • Massachusetts
  • Michigan
  • Minnesota
  • Mississippi
  • Missouri
  • Montana
  • Nebraska
  • Nevada
  • New Hampshire
  • New Jersey
  • New Mexico
  • New York
  • North Carolina
  • North Dakota
  • Ohio
  • Oklahoma
  • Oregon
  • Pennsylvania
  • Rhode Island
  • South Carolina
  • South Dakota
  • Tennessee
  • Texas
  • Utah
  • Vermont
  • Virginia
  • Washington
  • West Virginia
  • Wisconsin
  • Wyoming