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 Election 2006 Projections

 


 


North Carolina

Latest News and Updates


  • Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
  • CD-8:  Constituent Dynamics:  Kissell 48%, Hayes 44% - 10/31/06
  • CD-11:  Constituent Dynamics:  Shuler 53%, Taylor 44% - 10/30/06
  • CD-8:  Public Opinion Strategies (R):  Hayes 49%, Kissell 33% - 10/19/06
  • CD-8:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak GOP Hold to Mod GOP Hold - 10/19/06
  • Replaced TBC with Stuart Rothenberg in House race pundit projections - 10/16/06
  • CD-8:  Constituent Dynamics:  Kissell 51%, Hayes 44% - 10/13/06
  • CD-8:  Pundit rating change - 10/13/06
  • CD-8:  Tracking initiated - 10/13/06
  • CD-11:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain - 10/13/06
  • CD-11:  Constituent Dynamics:  Shuler 51%, Taylor 43% - 10/13/06
  • CD-11:  Pundit rating change - 10/13/06
  • CD-11:  Pundit rating change - 10/07/06
  • CD-11:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak DEM Gain to Weak GOP Hold - 10/07/06
  • CD-11:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain - 09/07/06
  • CD-11:  Constituent Dynamics:  Shuler 50%, Taylor 47% - 09/07/06
  • Tracking initiated - 07/14/06

    Conservative Ranking


    North Carolina is the 21st most conservative state, voting 10.0% more Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, North Carolina's partisan trend is STEADY.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    North Carolina ranks 30th among the 50 states.

    Senate Race


    No race in 2006

    Governor's Race


    No race in 2006

    Competitive House Races


    District 8


    Incumbent:  GOP incumbent Robin Hayes is seeking a 9th term in 2006.  He faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Robin Hayes - Incumbent  
  • John Armor - Attorney and Author

    Democrat Candidates

  • Larry Kissell  
  • Clyde Morgan - Contractor

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Robin Hayes +1.6

    Pundit Predictions

      Pundit Date Prediction
        Stuart Rothenberg   10/13 Hayes by 16 (Solid GOP)
        Charlie Cook 10/13 Hayes by 8 (Likely GOP)
        Larry Sabato 11/02 Hayes by 4 (Leans GOP)
        Congressional Quarterly 10/13 Hayes by 8 (Likely GOP)

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Hayes Kissell
        Elon University 10/30 33% 41%
        Constituent Dynamics 10/26 44% 48%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Pundit predictions 9.0 45% 4.1
        Head-to-head polls -6.0 50% -3.0
        District partisanship 10.0 5% 0.5

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Hayes +1.6 Weak GOP Hold
        October 31, 2006 Hayes +6.5 Mod GOP Hold
        October 16, 2006 Hayes +5.8 Mod GOP Hold
        October 13, 2006 Hayes +3.5 Weak GOP Hold
        Preliminary ----- possibly competitive

    District 11


    Incumbent:  GOP incumbent Charles Taylor is seeking a 9th term in 2006.  He faced primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Charles Taylor - Incumbent  
  • John Armor - Attorney and Author

    Democrat Candidates

  • Heath Shuler - Former NFL Quarterback  
  • Clyde Morgan - Contractor

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Heath Shuler +3.6 - DEM pick-up

    Pundit Predictions

      Pundit Date Prediction
        Stuart Rothenberg   11/06 Shuler by 2 (Tilts DEM)
        Charlie Cook 06/29 Toss-up
        Larry Sabato 11/06 Shuler by 4 (Leans DEM)
        Congressional Quarterly 10/07 Toss-up

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Taylor Shuler
        OnPoint (D) 10/30 43% 52%
        Constituent Dynamics 10/26 44% 53%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Pundit predictions 0.0 70% 0.0
        Head-to-head polls** -6.0 50% -3.0
        District partisanship 12.0 5% 0.6
        Other issues Adjustment: -0.5
        ** - partisan polls adjusted by 3%

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Shuler +3.6 Weak DEM Gain
        October 30, 2006 Shuler +2.2 Weak DEM Gain
        October 16, 2006 Shuler +1.9 Weak DEM Gain
        October 13, 2006 Shuler +1.4 Weak DEM Gain
        October 7, 2006 Taylor +1.0 Weak GOP Hold
        September 7, 2006 Shuler +0.4 Weak DEM Gain
        July 14, 2006 Taylor +1.0 Weak GOP Hold
        Preliminary ----- Weak GOP Hold

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  G.K. Butterfield (D)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 2:  Bob Etheridge (D)-inc vs. Dan Mansell (R)
  • District 3:  Walter Jones, Jr. (R)-inc vs. Craig Weber (D)
  • District 4:  David Price (D)-inc vs. Steven Acuff (R)
  • District 5:  Virginia Foxx (R)-inc vs. Roger Sharpe (D)
  • District 6:  Howard Coble (R)-inc vs. Rory Blake (D)
  • District 7:  Mike McIntyre (D)-inc vs. Shirley Davis (R)
  • District 9:  Sue Myrick (R)-inc vs. Bill Glass (D)
  • District 10:  Patrick McHenry (R)-inc vs. Richard Carsner (D)
  • District 12:  Melvin Watt (D)-inc vs. Ada Fisher (R)
  • District 13:  Brad Miller (D)-inc vs. Vernon Robinson (R)

    Election Timeline


  • February 28, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • May 2, 2006 - Primary elections
  • May 30, 2006 - Primary runoff
  • November 7, 2006 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 2 GOP
        Representatives 7 GOP, 6 DEM
      State Government
        Governor DEM
        Lt. Governor DEM
        State Senate - DEM control 20 GOP, 29 DEM, 1 vacant
        State House - DEM control 57 GOP, 63 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Mike Easley (D) - 2nd term, term limited in 2008
  • Lt. Governor:  Beverly Perdue (D) - 2nd term, running for Governor in 2008
  • Senior Senator:  Elizabeth Dole (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2008
  • Junior Senator:  Richard Burr (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2010
  • House District 1:  G.K. Butterfield (D) - 2nd term
  • House District 2:  Bob Etheridge (D) - 5th term
  • House District 3:  Walter Jones, Jr. (R) - 6th term
  • House District 4:  David Price (D) - 9th term
  • House District 5:  Virginia Foxx (R) - 1st term
  • House District 6:  Howard Coble (R) - 11th term
  • House District 7:  Mike McIntyre (D) - 5th term
  • House District 8:  Robin Hayes (R) - 4th term
  • House District 9:  Sue Myrick (R) - 6th term
  • House District 10:  Patrick McHenry (R) - 1st term
  • House District 11:  Charles Taylor (R) - 8th term
  • House District 12:  Melvin Watt (D) - 7th term
  • House District 13:  Brad Miller (D) - 2nd term

    Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop:  North Dakota
    Previous Stop:  New York

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

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