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 Election 2006 Projections

 


 


North Dakota

Latest News and Updates


  • Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Conrad +52 (down 1) - 10/27/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Conrad +53 (unchanged) - 10/07/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Conrad +53 (up 4) - 08/18/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Conrad +49 (down 7) - 07/26/06
  • Tracking initiated - 07/14/06

    Conservative Ranking


    North Dakota is the 6th most conservative state, voting 24.9% more Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, North Dakota is trending REPUBLICAN.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    North Dakota ranks 15th among the 50 states.

    Senate Race


    Incumbent:  Democratic Non-partisan League incumbent Kent Conrad is up for a 4th term in 2006.  He faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Dwight Grotberg - Farmer  

    Democrat Candidates

  • Kent Conrad - Incumbent  

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Kent Conrad +16.8

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Grotberg Conrad
        Rasmussen 1/25 40% 53%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls 13.0 80% 10.4
        Incumbent approval 52 15% 7.9
        State partisanship -27.4 5% -1.4

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Conrad +16.8 Strong DEM Hold
        October 27, 2006 Conrad +16.8 Strong DEM Hold
        August 18, 2006 Conrad +17.0 Strong DEM Hold
        July 31, 2006 Conrad +16.4 Strong DEM Hold
        July 14, 2006 Conrad +17.4 Strong DEM Hold
        Preliminary ----- Strong DEM Hold

    Governor's Race


    No race in 2006

    Competitive House Races


    No competitive races in 2006

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Earl Pomeroy (DNL)-inc vs. Matt Mechtel (R)

    Election Timeline


  • April 17, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • June 13, 2006 - Primary elections
  • November 7, 2006 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 2 DEM
        Representatives 1 DEM
      State Government
        Governor GOP
        Lt. Governor - tied to Governor GOP
        State Senate - GOP control 32 GOP, 15 DEM
        State House - GOP control 67 GOP, 27 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  John Hoeven (R) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2008
  • Lt. Governor:  Jack Dalrymple (R) - 2nd term, tied to Governor
  • Senior Senator:  Kent Conrad (D) - 3rd term, up for re-election in 2006
  • Junior Senator:  Byron Dorgan (D) - 3rd term, up for re-election in 2010
  • House District 1:  Earl Pomeroy (D) - 7th term

    Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop:  Ohio
    Previous Stop:  North Carolina

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

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