Political Weblog | 2006 Projections | 2006 Formula | 2006 Election Calendar | 2004 Results | EP Polls | The Blogging Caesar Bio

.
 Election 2006 Projections

 


 


Oklahoma

Latest News and Updates


  • Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA:  Henry 64%, Istook 32% - 10/25/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Henry +41 (down 13) - 10/23/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Henry 59%, Istook 34% - 09/29/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA:  Henry 64%, Istook 33% - 09/27/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Henry +54 (up 10) - 09/25/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Henry 54%, Istook 33% - 09/06/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA:  Henry 60%, Istook 34% - 08/28/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Henry +44 (up 5) - 08/27/06
  • Gov:  RATING CHANGE:  Mod DEM Hold to Strong DEM Hold - 08/24/06
  • Tracking initiated and primary winners posted - 08/24/06

    Conservative Ranking


    Oklahoma is the 5th most conservative state, voting 28.7% more Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Oklahoma is trending REPUBLICAN.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    Oklahoma ranks 5th among the 50 states.

    Senate Race


    No race in 2006

    Governor's Race


    Incumbent:  Democrat Brad Henry is up for re-election for the first time in 2006.  He faced only token primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Ernest Istook - Oklahoma Representative to the U.S. House  
  • Bob Sullivan, Jr. - Oil Executive
  • James Williamson - Oklahoma State Senator
  • Jim Evanoff

    Democrat Candidates

  • Brad Henry - Incumbent  
  • Andrew Marr

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Brad Henry +30.2

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Istook Henry
        SurveyUSA 10/25 32% 64%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls 32.0 80% 25.6
        Incumbent approval 41 15% 6.2
        State partisanship 31.2 5% -1.6

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Henry +30.2 Strong DEM Hold
        October 25, 2006 Henry +30.2 Strong DEM Hold
        October 23, 2006 Henry +27.0 Strong DEM Hold
        September 29, 2006 Henry +28.9 Strong DEM Hold
        September 25, 2006 Henry +27.3 Strong DEM Hold
        September 25, 2006 Henry +25.3 Strong DEM Hold
        September 6, 2006 Henry +23.8 Strong DEM Hold
        August 28, 2006 Henry +25.8 Strong DEM Hold
        August 27, 2006 Henry +27.4 Strong DEM Hold
        August 24, 2006 Henry +26.7 Strong DEM Hold
        Preliminary ----- Mod DEM Hold

    Competitive House Races


    No competitive races in 2006

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  John Sullivan (R)-inc vs. Alan Gentges (D)
  • District 2:  Dan Boren (D)-inc vs. Patrick Miller (R)
  • District 3:  Frank Lucas (R)-inc vs. Sue Barton (D)
  • District 4:  Tom Cole (R)-inc vs. Hal Spake (D)
  • District 5:  OPEN:  Mary Fallin (R) vs. David Hunter (D)

    Election Timeline


  • June 7, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • July 25, 2006 - Primary elections
  • August 22, 2006 - Primary runoff
  • November 7, 2006 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 2 GOP
        Representatives 4 GOP, 1 DEM
      State Government
        Governor DEM
        Lt. Governor GOP
        State Senate - DEM control 21 GOP, 26 DEM, 1 vacant
        State House - GOP control 57 GOP, 44 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Brad Henry (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2006
  • Lt. Governor:  Mary Fallin (R) - 3rd term, running for Congress (5th District)
  • Senior Senator:  Jim Inhofe (R) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2008
  • Junior Senator:  Tom Coburn (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2010
  • House District 1:  John Sullivan (R) - 3rd term
  • House District 2:  Dan Boren (D) - 1st term
  • House District 3:  Frank Lucas (R) - 7th term
  • House District 4:  Tom Cole (R) - 2nd term
  • House District 5:  Ernest Istook (R) - 7th term (running for Governor)

    Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop:  Oregon
    Previous Stop:  Ohio

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

    Site Traffic



  • 2006 Projections


    Search This Site
    by Google

    e-mail Scott at:
    thebloggingcaesar
    @electionprojection.com


    2004 Projection Results



    2006 Projections
    State-by-State

  • Alabama
  • Alaska
  • Arizona
  • Arkansas
  • California
  • Colorado
  • Connecticut
  • Delaware
  • Florida
  • Georgia
  • Hawaii
  • Idaho
  • Illinois
  • Indiana
  • Iowa
  • Kansas
  • Kentucky
  • Louisiana
  • Maine
  • Maryland
  • Massachusetts
  • Michigan
  • Minnesota
  • Mississippi
  • Missouri
  • Montana
  • Nebraska
  • Nevada
  • New Hampshire
  • New Jersey
  • New Mexico
  • New York
  • North Carolina
  • North Dakota
  • Ohio
  • Oklahoma
  • Oregon
  • Pennsylvania
  • Rhode Island
  • South Carolina
  • South Dakota
  • Tennessee
  • Texas
  • Utah
  • Vermont
  • Virginia
  • Washington
  • West Virginia
  • Wisconsin
  • Wyoming