Political Weblog | 2006 Projections | 2006 Formula | 2006 Election Calendar | 2004 Results | EP Polls | The Blogging Caesar Bio

.
 Election 2006 Projections

 


 


Oregon

Latest News and Updates


  • Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
  • Gov:  RATING CHANGE:  Mod DEM Hold to Weak DEM Hold - 10/30/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Kulongoski 51%, Saxton 44% - 10/30/06
  • Gov:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak GOP Gain to Mod DEM Hold - 10/26/06
  • Gov:  Riley Research:  Kulongoski 47%, Saxton 36% - 10/26/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Kulongoski -17 (up 4) - 10/23/06
  • Gov:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak DEM Hold to Weak GOP Gain - 10/05/06
  • Gov:  Riley Research:  Saxton 39%, Kulongoski 37% - 10/05/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Kulongoski 47%, Saxton 42% - 10/02/06
  • Gov:  Oregonian/KATU:  Kulongoski 39%, Saxton 34% - 09/29/06
  • Gov:  RATING CHANGE:  Mod DEM Hold to Weak DEM Hold - 09/25/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Kulongoski 47%, Saxton 38% - 09/25/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Kulongoski -21 (down 18) - 09/25/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Kulongoski -3 (up 13) - 08/27/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Kulongoski 49%, Saxton 35% - 08/22/06
  • Gov:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak GOP Gain to Mod DEM Hold - 08/03/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Kulongoski 45%, Saxton 35% - 08/03/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Kulongoski -16 (up 11) - 07/23/06
  • Tracking initiated - 07/14/06

    Conservative Ranking


    Oregon is the 14th least conservative state, voting 6.6% less Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Oregon is trending DEMOCRAT.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    Oregon ranks 47th among the 50 states.

    Senate Race


    No race in 2006

    Governor's Race


    Incumbent:  Democrat Ted Kulongoski is seeking a 2nd term in 2006.  He faced only token primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Kevin Mannix - Former Oregon State Representative and '02 Gov. Candidate
  • Ron Saxton - Former School Board Member  
  • Jason Atkinson - Oregon State Senator
  • David Beem
  • Ames Cutright
  • William Spidal

    Democrat Candidates

  • Ted Kulongoski - Incumbent  
  • Jim Hill
  • Peter Sorenson

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Ted Kulongoski +3.3

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Saxton Kulongoski
        Oregonian 10/31 38% 45%
        Rasmussen 10/28 44% 51%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls 7.0 80% 5.6
        Incumbent approval -17 15% -2.6
        State partisanship 4.2 5% 0.2

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Kulongoski +3.3 Weak DEM Hold
        October 30, 2006 Kulongoski +4.9 Weak DEM Hold
        October 26, 2006 Kulongoski +6.5 Mod DEM Hold
        October 23, 2006 Saxton +0.2 Weak GOP Gain
        October 5, 2006 Saxton +0.8 Weak GOP Gain
        October 2, 2006 Kulongoski +1.1 Weak DEM Hold
        September 29, 2006 Kulongoski +2.7 Weak DEM Hold
        September 25, 2006 Kulongoski +4.3 Weak DEM Hold
        August 27, 2006 Kulongoski +10.9 Mod DEM Hold
        August 22, 2006 Kulongoski +9.0 Mod DEM Hold
        August 3, 2006 Kulongoski +5.8 Mod DEM Hold
        July 23, 2006 Saxton +0.6 Weak GOP Gain
        July 14, 2006 Saxton +2.2 Weak GOP Gain
        Preliminary ----- Weak DEM Hold

    Competitive House Races


    No competitive races in 2006

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  David Wu (D)-inc vs. Derrick Kitts (R)
  • District 2:  Greg Walden (R)-inc vs. Carol Voisin (D)
  • District 3:  Earl Blumenauer (D)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 4:  Pete DeFazio (D)-inc vs. Jim Feldkamp (R)
  • District 5:  Darlene Hooley (D)-inc vs. Mike Erickson (R)

    Election Timeline


  • March 7, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • May 16, 2006 - Primary elections
  • November 7, 2006 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 1 GOP, 1 DEM
        Representatives 1 GOP, 4 DEM
      State Government
        Governor DEM
        State Senate - DEM control 12 GOP, 18 DEM
        State House - GOP control 33 GOP, 27 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Ted Kulongoski (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2006
  • Senior Senator:  Ron Wyden (D) - 3rd term, up for re-election in 2010
  • Junior Senator:  Gordon Smith (R) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2008
  • House District 1:  David Wu (D) - 4th term
  • House District 2:  Greg Walden (R) - 4th term
  • House District 3:  Earl Blumenauer (D) - 6th term
  • House District 4:  Pete DeFazio (D) - 10th term
  • House District 5:  Darlene Hooley (D) - 5th term

    Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop:  Pennsylvania
    Previous Stop:  Oklahoma

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

    Site Traffic



  • 2006 Projections


    Search This Site
    by Google

    e-mail Scott at:
    thebloggingcaesar
    @electionprojection.com


    2004 Projection Results



    2006 Projections
    State-by-State

  • Alabama
  • Alaska
  • Arizona
  • Arkansas
  • California
  • Colorado
  • Connecticut
  • Delaware
  • Florida
  • Georgia
  • Hawaii
  • Idaho
  • Illinois
  • Indiana
  • Iowa
  • Kansas
  • Kentucky
  • Louisiana
  • Maine
  • Maryland
  • Massachusetts
  • Michigan
  • Minnesota
  • Mississippi
  • Missouri
  • Montana
  • Nebraska
  • Nevada
  • New Hampshire
  • New Jersey
  • New Mexico
  • New York
  • North Carolina
  • North Dakota
  • Ohio
  • Oklahoma
  • Oregon
  • Pennsylvania
  • Rhode Island
  • South Carolina
  • South Dakota
  • Tennessee
  • Texas
  • Utah
  • Vermont
  • Virginia
  • Washington
  • West Virginia
  • Wisconsin
  • Wyoming