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 Election 2006 Projections

 


 


Rhode Island

Latest News and Updates


  • Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
  • Sen:  Rhode Island College:  Whitehouse 43%, Chafee 33% - 10/27/06
  • Gov:  Rhode Island College:  Carcieri 49%, Fogarty 35% - 10/27/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Chafee -1 (down 5) - 10/27/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Whitehouse 52%, Chafee 44% - 10/25/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Carcieri 51%, Fogarty 44% - 10/25/06
  • Sen:  Mason-Dixon:  Whitehouse 48%, Chafee 43% - 10/25/06
  • Gov:  Mason-Dixon:  Carcieri 49%, Fogarty 39% - 10/25/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Carcieri +16 (up 5) - 10/23/06
  • Sen:  Flemming:  Whitehouse 45%, Chafee 40% - 10/21/06
  • Sen:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak Dem Gain to Mod Dem Gain - 10/11/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Whitehouse 49%, Chafee 39% - 10/11/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Carcieri 47%, Fogarty 44% - 10/11/06
  • Sen:  Rhode Island College:  Whitehouse 40%, Chafee 37% - 10/11/06
  • Gov:  Rhode Island College:  Carcieri 44%, Fogarty 36% - 10/11/06
  • Sen:  USA Today/Gallup:  Whitehouse 50%, Chafee 39% - 10/07/06
  • Gov:  USA Today/Gallup:  Carcieri 47%, Fogarty 46% - 10/07/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Chafee +4 (down 3) - 10/07/06
  • Sen:  Mason-Dixon:  Whitehouse 42%, Chafee 41% - 10/02/06
  • Gov:  Mason-Dixon:  Carcieri 50%, Fogarty 34% - 10/02/06
  • Gov:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak GOP Hold to Mod GOP Hold - 09/25/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Carcieri +11 (up 8) - 09/25/06
  • Gov:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak Dem Gain to Weak GOP Hold - 09/20/06
  • Sen:  Brown University:  Whitehouse 40%, Chafee 39% - 09/20/06
  • Gov:  Brown University:  Carcieri 50%, Fogarty 38% - 09/20/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Whitehouse 51%, Chafee 43% - 09/18/06
  • Sen:  Tracking initiated - 09/13/06
  • Gov:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak GOP Hold to Weak Dem Gain - 09/05/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Fogarty 46%, Carcieri 41% - 09/05/06
  • Gov:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak Dem Gain to Weak GOP Hold - 08/28/06
  • Gov:  Flemming:  Carcieri 45%, Fogarty 41% - 08/28/06
  • Gov:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak GOP Hold to Weak Dem Gain - 08/27/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Carcieri +3 (down 4) - 08/27/06
  • Sen:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak GOP Hold* to Weak Dem Gain* - 08/09/06
  • Gov:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak Dem Gain to Weak GOP Hold - 08/09/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Carcieri 43%, Fogarty 43% - 08/09/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Carcieri +7 (up 4) - 07/23/06
  • Gov:  Tracking initiated (assumes Carcieri/Fogarty match-up) - 07/19/06

    * - preliminary rating

    Conservative Ranking


    Rhode Island is the 2nd least conservative state, voting 23.2% less Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Rhode Island's partisan trend is STEADY.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    Rhode Island ranks 26th among the 50 states.

    Senate Race


    Incumbent:  GOP incumbent Lincoln Chafee is seeking re-election for the first time in 2006.  He faced serious primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Lincoln Chafee - Incumbent  
  • Stephen Laffey - Cranston Mayor

    Democrat Candidates

  • Sheldon Whitehouse - Former Rhode Island Attorney General  
  • Carl Sheeler
  • Christopher Young
  • Rebeka Palmer Rockefeller

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  S. Whitehouse +2.0 - DEM pick-up

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Chafee Whitehouse
        USA Today/Gallup 11/05 45% 48%
        Mason-Dixon 11/01 46% 45%

    Projection Data

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls -1.0 80% -0.8
        Incumbent approval -1 15% -0.2
        State partisanship -20.7 5% -1.0

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Whitehouse +2.0 Mod DEM Gain
        October 27, 2006 Whitehouse +6.8 Mod DEM Gain
        October 11, 2006 Whitehouse +5.2 Mod DEM Gain
        October 7, 2006 Whitehouse +4.6 Weak DEM Gain
        October 2, 2006 Whitehouse +3.0 Weak DEM Gain
        September 20, 2006 Whitehouse +2.6 Weak DEM Gain
        September 18, 2006 Whitehouse +2.8 Weak DEM Gain
        September 13, 2006 Whitehouse +0.4 Weak DEM Gain
        Preliminary ----- Weak DEM Gain

    Governor's Race


    Incumbent:  GOP incumbent Don Carcieri is up for re-election for the first time in 2006.  He faces only token primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Don Carcieri - Incumbent  
  • Dennis Michaud

    Democrat Candidates

  • Charles Fogarty - Rhode Island Lt. Governor  

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Don Carcieri +7.8

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Carcieri Fogarty
        Mason-Dixon 11/02 50% 42%

    Projection Data

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls 8.0 80% 6.4
        Incumbent approval 16 15% 2.4
        State partisanship -20.7 5% -1.0

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Carcieri +7.8 Mod GOP Hold
        October 27, 2006 Carcieri +9.6 Mod GOP Hold
        October 25, 2006 Carcieri +8.2 Mod GOP Hold
        October 23, 2006 Carcieri +7.8 Mod GOP Hold
        October 11, 2006 Carcieri +7.0 Mod GOP Hold
        October 7, 2006 Carcieri +6.8 Mod GOP Hold
        October 2, 2006 Carcieri +8.6 Mod GOP Hold
        September 25, 2006 Carcieri +5.4 Mod GOP Hold
        September 20, 2006 Carcieri +4.2 Weak GOP Hold
        September 5, 2006 Fogarty +1.0 Weak DEM Gain
        August 28, 2006 Carcieri +1.1 Weak GOP Hold
        August 27, 2006 Fogarty +0.6 Weak DEM Gain
        August 9 Carcieri +0.02 Weak GOP Hold
        July 23, 2006 Fogarty +0.8 Weak DEM Gain
        July 19, 2006 Fogarty +1.4 Weak DEM Gain
        Preliminary ----- Weak GOP Hold

    Competitive House Races


    No competitive races in 2006

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Patrick Kennedy (D)-inc vs. Jonathan Scott (R)
  • District 2:  James Langevin (D)-inc  (unopposed)

    Election Timeline


  • June 28, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • September 12, 2006 - Primary elections
  • November 7, 2006 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 1 GOP, 1 DEM
        Representatives 2 DEM
      State Government
        Governor GOP
        Lt. Governor DEM
        State Senate - DEM control 4 GOP, 32 DEM
        State House - DEM control 14 GOP, 61 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Don Carcieri (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2006
  • Lt. Governor:  Charles Fogarty (D) - 2nd term, term-limited in 2006
  • Senior Senator:  Jack Reed (D) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2008
  • Junior Senator:  Lincoln Chafee (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2006
  • House District 1:  Patrick Kennedy (D) - 6th term
  • House District 2:  James Langevin (D) - 3rd term

    Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop:  South Carolina
    Previous Stop:  Pennsylvania

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

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