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 Election 2006 Projections

 


 


South Carolina

Latest News and Updates


  • Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
  • Gov:  RATING CHANGE:  Mod GOP Hold to Strong GOP Hold - 10/27/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA:  Sanford 58%, Moore 31% - 10/27/06
  • Gov:  RATING CHANGE:  Strong GOP Hold to Mod GOP Hold - 10/23/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Sanford +12 (down 19) - 10/23/06
  • Gov:  RATING CHANGE:  Mod GOP Hold to Strong GOP Hold - 10/18/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA:  Sanford 56%, Moore 41% - 10/17/06
  • Gov:  RATING CHANGE:  Strong GOP Hold to Mod GOP Hold - 09/25/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA:  Sanford 50%, Moore 46% - 09/29/06
  • Gov:  RATING CHANGE:  Mod GOP Hold to Strong GOP Hold - 09/25/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Sanford +31 (up 25) - 09/25/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA:  Sanford 54%, Moore 41% - 09/21/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Sanford 51%, Moore 38% - 09/12/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Sanford +6 (down 12) - 08/27/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Sanford 47%, Moore 38% - 08/04/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Sanford +18 (up 5) - 07/23/06
  • Tracking initiated - 07/14/06

    Conservative Ranking


    South Carolina is the 16th most conservative state, voting 14.6% more Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, South Carolina's partisan trend is STEADY.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    South Carolina ranks 24th among the 50 states.

    Senate Race


    No race in 2006

    Governor's Race


    Incumbent:  One-term Republican Mark Sanford, Jr. is up for re-election in 2006.  He faced only token primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Mark Sanford, Jr. - Incumbent  
  • Oscar Lovelace - Physician

    Democrat Candidates

  • Tom Moore - South Carolina State Senator  
  • Dennis Aughtry - Lawyer
  • Frank Willis - Mayor of Floence

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Mark Sanford, Jr. +16.3

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Sanford Moore
        SurveyUSA 11/04 57% 40%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls 17.0 80% 13.6
        Incumbent approval 12 15% 1.8
        State partisanship 17.1 5% 0.9

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Sanford +16.3 Strong GOP Hold
        October 27, 2006 Sanford +19.5 Strong GOP Hold
        October 23, 2006 Sanford +14.7 Mod GOP Hold
        October 18, 2006 Sanford +17.5 Strong GOP Hold
        September 29, 2006 Sanford +12.3 Mod GOP Hold
        September 25, 2006 Sanford +15.9 Strong GOP Hold
        September 12, 2006 Sanford +12.2 Mod GOP Hold
        August 27, 2006 Sanford +9.0 Mod GOP Hold
        August 4, 2006 Sanford +10.8 Mod GOP Hold
        July 23, 2006 Sanford +13.2 Mod GOP Hold
        July 14, 2006 Sanford +12.4 Mod GOP Hold
        Preliminary ----- Strong GOP Hold

    Competitive House Races


    No competitive races in 2006

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Henry Brown (R)-inc vs. Randy Maatta (D)
  • District 2:  Joe Wilson (R)-inc vs. Michael Ray Ellisor (D)
  • District 3:  Gresham Barrett (R)-inc vs. Lee Ballenger (D)
  • District 4:  Bob Inglis (R)-inc vs. William Griffith (D)
  • District 5:  John Spratt, Jr. (D)-inc vs. Ralph Norman (R)
  • District 6:  Jim Clyburn (D)-inc vs. Gary McLeod (R)

    Election Timeline


  • March 30, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • June 13, 2006 - Primary elections
  • June 27, 2006 - Primary runoff elections
  • November 7, 2006 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 2 GOP
        Representatives 4 GOP, 2 DEM
      State Government
        Governor GOP
        Lt. Governor GOP
        State Senate - GOP control 26 GOP, 20 DEM
        State House - GOP control 74 GOP, 50 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Mark Sanford (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2006
  • Lt. Governor:  Andre Bauer (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2006
  • Senior Senator:  Lindsey Graham (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2008
  • Junior Senator:  Jim DeMint (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2010
  • House District 1:  Henry Brown (R) - 3rd term
  • House District 2:  Joe Wilson (R) - 3rd term
  • House District 3:  Gresham Barrett (R) - 2nd term
  • House District 4:  Bob Inglis (R) - 4th term
  • House District 5:  John Spratt, Jr. (D) - 12th term
  • House District 6:  Jim Clyburn (D) - 7th term

    Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop:  South Dakota
    Previous Stop:  Rhode Island

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

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