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 Election 2006 Projections

 


 


South Dakota

Latest News and Updates


  • Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
  • Gov:  Approval:  Rounds +31 (down 3) - 10/23/06
  • Gov:  Approval:  Rounds +34 (up 7) - 09/25/06
  • Gov:  Approval:  Rounds +27 (down 7) - 08/27/06
  • Gov:  Approval:  Rounds +34 (up 8) - 07/23/06
  • Tracking initiated - 07/15/06

    Conservative Ranking


    South Dakota is the 11th most conservative state, voting 19.0% more Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, South Dakota is trending REPUBLICAN.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    South Dakota ranks 18th among the 50 states.

    Senate Race


    No race in 2006

    Governor's Race


    Incumbent:  GOP incumbent Mike Rounds is up for re-election for the first time in 2006.  He faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Mike Rounds - Incumbent  

    Democrat Candidates

  • Jack Billion - Former South Dakota State Reprsentative  
  • Dennis Wiese - Farmers Union President

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Mike Rounds +33.7

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Rounds Billion
        SurveyUSA 05/18 65% 30%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls 35.0 80% 28.0
        Incumbent approval 31 15% 4.7
        State partisanship 21.5 5% 1.1

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Rounds +33.7 Strong GOP Hold
        October 23, 2006 Rounds +33.7 Strong GOP Hold
        September 25, 2006 Rounds +34.2 Strong GOP Hold
        August 27, 2006 Rounds +33.2 Strong GOP Hold
        July 23, 2006 Rounds +34.2 Strong GOP Hold
        July 15, 2006 Rounds +33.0 Strong GOP Hold
        Preliminary ----- Strong GOP Hold

    Competitive House Races


    No competitive races in 2006

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Stephanie Herseth (D)-inc vs. Bruce Whalen (R)

    Election Timeline


  • April 6, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • June 6, 2006 - Primary elections
  • June 14, 2006 - Primary runoff elections
  • November 7, 2006 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 1 GOP, 1 DEM
        Representatives 1 DEM
      State Government
        Governor GOP
        Lt. Governor - tied to Governor GOP
        State Senate - GOP control 25 GOP, 10 DEM
        State House - GOP control 51 GOP, 19 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Mike Rounds (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2006
  • Lt. Governor:  Dennis Daugaard (R) - 1st term, tied to Governor
  • Senior Senator:  Tim Johnson (D) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2008
  • Junior Senator:  John Thune (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2010
  • House District 1:  Stephanie Herseth (D) - 2nd term

    Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop:  Tennessee
    Previous Stop:  South Carolina

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

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