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 Election 2006 Projections

 


 


Tennessee

Latest News and Updates


  • Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Corker 49%, Ford 47% - 11/01/06
  • Sen:  CNN:  Corker 52%, Ford 44% - 11/01/06
  • Gov:  CNN:  Bredesen 59%, Bryson 37% - 11/01/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Frist +2 (down 2) - 10/27/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA:  Corker 48%, Ford 48% - 10/26/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA:  Bredesen 66%, Bryson 29% - 10/26/06
  • Sen:  Mason-Dixon:  Corker 45%, Ford 43% - 10/25/06
  • Gov:  Mason-Dixon:  Bredesen 62%, Bryson 27% - 10/25/06
  • Sen:  LA Times/Bloomberg:  Corker 49%, Ford 44% - 10/25/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Bredesen +30 (down 2) - 10/23/06
  • Sen:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak DEM Gain to Weak GOP Hold - 10/14/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Ford 48%, Corker 46% - 10/14/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA:  Corker 48%, Ford 46% - 10/11/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA:  Bredesen 63%, Bryson 32% - 10/11/06
  • Sen:  USA Today/Gallup:  Ford 50%, Corker 45% - 10/07/06
  • Gov:  USA Today/Gallup:  Bredesen 66%, Bryson 26% - 10/07/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Frist +4 (down 1) - 10/07/06
  • Sen:  Middle Tennessee State University:  Corker 43%, Ford 42% - 10/04/06
  • Gov:  Middle Tennessee State University:  Bredesen 59%, Bryson 21% - 10/04/06
  • Gov:  Mason-Dixon:  Bredesen 63%, Bryson 22% - 10/03/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Bredesen 63%, Bryson 28% - 10/03/06
  • Sen:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain - 10/02/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Ford 48%, Corker 43% - 10/02/06
  • Sen:  Mason-Dixon:  Ford 43%, Corker 42% - 10/02/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Bredesen +32 (up 12) - 09/25/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA:  Ford 48%, Corker 45% - 09/13/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA:  Bredesen 63%, Bryson 30% - 09/13/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Corker 45%, Ford 44% - 09/08/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Bredesen 58%, Bryson 31% - 09/08/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Frist +5 (down 2) - 08/18/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Bredesen +20 (down 3) - 08/27/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Corker 48%, Ford 42% - 08/17/06
  • Tracking initiated - 08/05/06

    Conservative Ranking


    Tennessee is the 19th most conservative state, voting 11.8% more Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Tennessee is trending REPUBLICAN.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    Tennessee ranks 9th among the 50 states.

    Senate Race


    OPEN SEAT:  Two-term GOP incumbent Bill Frist will retire in 2007.

    GOP Candidates

  • Ed Bryant - Former Tennessee Representative to the U.S. House
  • Bob Corker - Former Chattanooga Mayor  
  • Tate Harrison
  • Van Hilleary - Former Tennessee Representative to the U.S. House

    Democrat Candidates

  • Harold Ford - Tennessee Representative to the U.S. House  
  • Gary Davis
  • Rosalind Kurita - Tennessee State Senator
  • Charles Smith
  • Al Strauss - Professor

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Bob Corker +6.6

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Corker Ford
        SurveyUSA 11/05 51% 46%
        Rasmussen 11/04 51% 47%
        USA Today/Gallup 11/04 49% 46%
        Mason-Dixon 11/03 50% 38%
        CNN 10/29 52% 44%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls 6.4 90% 5.8
        Incumbent approval 2 5% 0.1
        State partisanship 14.3 5% 0.7

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Corker +6.6 Weak GOP Hold
        November 1, 2006 Corker +3.9 Weak GOP Hold
        October 27, 2006 Corker +1.9 Weak GOP Hold
        October 26, 2006 Corker +2.0 Weak GOP Hold
        October 25, 2006 Corker +2.4 Weak GOP Hold
        October 12, 2006 Corker +0.02 Weak GOP Hold
        October 11, 2006 Ford +0.5 Weak DEM Gain
        October 7, 2006 Ford +1.4 Weak DEM Gain
        October 4, 2006 Ford +0.8 Weak DEM Gain
        October 2, 2006 Ford +1.7 Weak DEM Gain
        September 13, 2006 Corker +0.1 Weak GOP Hold
        September 8, 2006 Corker +1.9 Weak GOP Hold
        August 18, 2006 Corker +9.6 Mod GOP Hold
        August 17, 2006 Corker +9.7 Mod GOP Hold
        August 5, 2006 Corker +10.7 Mod GOP Hold
        Preliminary ----- Mod GOP Hold

    Governor's Race


    Incumbent:  Democrat Phil Bredesen is up for re-election for the first time in 2006.  He faced only token primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Mark Albertini - Businessman
  • Wayne Thomas Bailey
  • Jim Boyd
  • Raymond Brown
  • Jim Bryson  
  • David Farmer
  • Joe Kirkpatrick
  • Basil Marceaux
  • Timothy Thomas
  • Wayne Young

    Democrat Candidates

  • Phil Bredesen - Incumbent  
  • Tim Sevier - 2002 Congressional Candidate
  • Walt Ward - Probation Officer

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Phil Bredesen +26.5

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Bryson Bredesen
        SurveyUSA 11/05 34% 62%
        Mason-Dixon 11/03 26% 61%
        CNN 10/29 37% 59%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls 28.3 80% 22.7
        Incumbent approval 30 15% 4.5
        State partisanship -14.3 5% -0.7

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Bredesen +26.5 Strong DEM Hold
        November 1, 2006 Bredesen +28.9 Strong DEM Hold
        October 26, 2006 Bredesen +32.6 Strong DEM Hold
        October 25, 2006 Bredesen +31.8 Strong DEM Hold
        October 23, 2006 Bredesen +33.4 Strong DEM Hold
        October 11, 2006 Bredesen +33.7 Strong DEM Hold
        October 7, 2006 Bredesen +34.0 Strong DEM Hold
        October 4, 2006 Bredesen +33.5 Strong DEM Hold
        October 3, 2006 Bredesen +33.2 Strong DEM Hold
        September 25, 2006 Bredesen +28.1 Strong DEM Hold
        September 13, 2006 Bredesen +26.3 Strong DEM Hold
        September 8, 2006 Bredesen +23.9 Strong DEM Hold
        August 27, 2006 Bredesen +28.7 Strong DEM Hold
        August 5, 2006 Bredesen +29.1 Strong DEM Hold
        Preliminary ----- Strong DEM Hold

    Competitive House Races


    No competitive races in 2006

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  OPEN:  David Davis (R) vs. Rick Trent (D)
  • District 2:  John Duncan (R)-inc vs. John Green (D)
  • District 3:  Zach Wamp (R)-inc vs. Brent Benedict (D)
  • District 4:  Lincoln Davis (D)-inc vs. Ken Martin (R)
  • District 5:  Jim Cooper (D)-inc vs. Tom Kovach (R)
  • District 6:  Bart Gordon (D)-inc vs. David R. Davis (R)
  • District 7:  Marsha Blackburn (R)-inc vs. Bill Morrison (D)
  • District 8:  John Tanner (D)-inc vs. John Farmer (R)
  • District 9:  OPEN:  Steve Cohen (D) vs. Mark White (R)

    Election Timeline


  • April 6, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • August 3, 2006 - Primary elections
  • November 7, 2006 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 2 GOP
        Representatives 4 GOP, 5 DEM
      State Government
        Governor DEM
        State Senate - GOP control 18 GOP, 15 DEM
        State House - DEM control 46 GOP, 53 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Phil Bredesen (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2006
  • Senior Senator:  Bill Frist (R) - 2nd term, retiring in 2007
  • Junior Senator:  Lamar Alexander (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2008
  • House District 1:  Bill Jenkins (R) - 5th term (retiring)
  • House District 2:  John Duncan (R) - 10th term
  • House District 3:  Zach Wamp (R) - 6th term
  • House District 4:  Lincoln Davis (D) - 2nd term
  • House District 5:  Jim Cooper (D) - 2nd term
  • House District 6:  Bart Gordon (D) - 11th term
  • House District 7:  Marsha Blackburn (R) - 2nd term
  • House District 8:  John Tanner (D) - 9th term
  • House District 9:  Harold Ford, Jr. (D) - 5th term (running for Senate)

    Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop:  Texas
    Previous Stop:  South Dakota

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

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