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 Election 2006 Projections

 


 


Texas

Latest News and Updates


  • Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
  • CD-22:  Pundit rating change - 10/31/06
  • CD-22:  Pundit rating change - 10/27/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Hutchison 60%, Radnofsky 34% - 10/27/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Hutchison +28 (unchanged) - 10/27/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA:  Perry 36%, Bell 26%, Strayhorn 19%, Friedman 16% - 10/25/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Perry -14 (down 7) - 10/23/06
  • Replaced TBC with Stuart Rothenberg in House race pundit projections - 10/16/06
  • CD-17:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak DEM Hold to possibly competitive - 10/14/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Hutchison +28 (down 1) - 10/07/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA:  Perry 38%, Strayhorn 18%, Bell 15%, Friedman 14% - 10/05/06
  • CD-22:  Tracking initiated - 09/29/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Perry -7 (up 2) - 09/25/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA:  Perry 35%, Bell 23%, Friedman 23%, Strayhorn 15% - 09/13/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Hutchison 58%, Radnofsky 32% - 09/13/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Perry 33%, Strayhorn 22%, Bell 18%, Friedman 16% - 09/13/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Hutchison +29 (unchanged) - 08/18/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Perry -9 (down 8) - 08/27/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Perry 35%, Bell 18%, Strayhorn 18%, Friedman 18% - 08/10/06
  • CD-17:  RATING CHANGE:  possibly competitive to Weak DEM Hold - 08/09/06
  • CD-22:  RATING CHANGE:  possibly competitive to Weak DEM Gain* - 08/09/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Hutchison 61%, Radnofsky 31% - 08/09/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Hutchison +29 (down 3) - 07/31/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Hutchison 58%, Radnofsky 31% - 07/24/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Perry 40%, Strayhorn 20%, Friedman 19%, Bell 13% - 07/24/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Perry -1 (down 7) - 07/23/06
  • Tracking initiated - 07/15/06

    * - preliminary

    Conservative Ranking


    Texas is the 10th most conservative state, voting 20.4% more Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Texas is trending REPUBLICAN.
    NOTE:  Texas' significant trend toward the GOP can be attributed somewhat to the presence of former Gov. George W. Bush on the ballot in 2000 and 2004.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    Texas ranks 12th among the 50 states.

    Senate Race


    Incumbent:  GOP incumbent Kay Bailey Hutchison seeks a third term in 2006.  She faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Kay Bailey Hutchison - Incumbent  

    Democrat Candidates

  • Barbara Ann Radnofsky - Attorney  
  • Gene Kelly - 2002 Senate Candidate
  • Darrel Hunter

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Kay Baily Hutchison +26.1

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Hutchison Radnofsky
        Rasmussen 10/27 60% 34%

    Projection Data

      Index Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls 26.0 80% 20.8
        Incumbent approval 28 15% 4.2
        State partisanship 22.9 5% 1.1

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Hutchison +26.1 Strong GOP Hold
        October 7, 2006 Hutchison +26.1 Strong GOP Hold
        September 13, 2006 Hutchison +26.3 Strong GOP Hold
        August 9, 2006 Hutchison +29.5 Strong GOP Hold
        July 31, 2006 Hutchison +27.1 Strong GOP Hold
        July 24, 2006 Hutchison +27.5 Strong GOP Hold
        July 15, 2006 Hutchison +21.1 Strong GOP Hold
        Preliminary ----- Strong GOP Hold

    Governor's Race


    Incumbent:  Republican Rick Perry is up for election to a third term in 2006.  He faced only token primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Rick Perry - Incumbent  
  • Larry Kilgore
  • Star Locke
  • Rhett Smith

    Democrat Candidates

  • Chris Bell - Former Texas Representative to the U.S. House  
  • Bob Gammage - Former Texas Representative to the U.S. House
  • Rashad Jafer

    Independent Candidates

  • Carole Strayhorn - Texas State Comptroller
  • Richard "Kinky" Friedman - Musician/Author

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Rick Perry +11/8

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm Date Perry Bell Strayhorn Friedman
        SurveyUSA 11/02 38% 22% 19% 16%

    Projection Data

      Index Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls 16.0 80% 12.8
        Incumbent approval -14 15% -2.1
        State partisanship 22.9 5% 1.1

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Perry +11.8 Mod GOP Hold
        October 25, 2006 Perry +7.0 Mod GOP Hold
        October 23, 2006 Perry +10.5 Mod GOP Hold
        October 5, 2006 Perry +11.6 Mod GOP Hold
        September 25, 2006 Perry +9.3 Mod GOP Hold
        September 20, 2006 Perry +9.0 Mod GOP Hold
        September 13, 2006 Perry +8.6 Mod GOP Hold
        August 27, 2006 Perry +12.2 Mod GOP Hold
        August 10, 2006 Perry +13.4 Mod GOP Hold
        July 24, 2006 Perry +14.6 Mod GOP Hold
        July 23, 2006 Perry +12.2 Mod GOP Hold
        July 15, 2006 Perry +13.2 Mod GOP Hold
        Preliminary ----- Strong GOP Hold

    Competitive House Races


    District 22


    OPEN SEAT:  GOP incumbent Tom Delay resigned in June, 2006.  He will not run for this seat even though his name must remain on the ballot due to his primary victory.  A write-in candidate will run for the GOP.

    GOP Candidates

  • Shelley Sekula-Gibbs - Houston City Council Member (designated write-in candidate)

    Democrat Candidates

  • Nick Lampson - Former Texas Representative to the U.S. House  

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Nick Lampson +0.3 - DEM pick-up

    Pundit Predictions

      Pundit Date Prediction
        Stuart Rothenberg   10/27 Toss-up
        Charlie Cook 10/31 Toss-up
        Larry Sabato 11/06 Lampson by 2 (Tilts Dem)
        Congressional Quarterly 09/29 Lampson by 4 (Lean Dem)

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Sekula-Gibbs Lampson
                 

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Pundit predictions -1.5 95% -1.4
        Head-to-head polls      up to 50%   
        District partisanship 21.5 5% 1.1

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Lampson +0.3 Weak DEM Gain
        November 1, 2006 Lampson +0.8 Weak DEM Gain
        October 27, 2006 Lampson +1.8 Weak DEM Gain
        October 16, 2006 Lampson +3.9 Weak DEM Gain
        September 29, 2006 Lampson +4.9 Weak DEM Gain
        Preliminary ----- Weak DEM Gain

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Louie Gohmert (R)-inc vs. Roger Owen (D)
  • District 2:  Ted Poe (R)-inc vs. Gary Binderim (D)
  • District 3:  Sam Johnson (R)-inc vs. Dan Dodd (D)
  • District 4:  Ralph Hall (R)-inc vs. Glenn Melancon (D)
  • District 5:  Jeb Hensarling (R)-inc vs. Charlie Thompson (D)
  • District 6:  Joe Barton (R)-inc vs. David Harris (D)
  • District 7:  John Culberson (R)-inc vs. Jim Henley (D)
  • District 8:  Kevin Brady (R)-inc vs. Jim Wright (D)
  • District 9:  Al Green (D)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 10:  Mike McCaul (R)-inc vs. Ted Ankrum (D)
  • District 11:  Michael Conaway (R)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 12:  Kay Granger (R)-inc vs. John Morris (D)
  • District 13:  "Mac" Thornberry (R)-inc vs. Roger Waun (D)
  • District 14:  Ron Paul (R)-inc vs. Shane Sklar (D)
  • District 15:*  Ruben Hinojosa (D)-inc vs. Paul Haring (R)
  • District 16:  Silvestre Reyes (D)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 17:  Chet Edwards (D)-inc vs. Van Taylor (R)
  • District 18:  Sheila Jackson Lee (D)-inc vs. Ahmad Hassan (R)
  • District 19:  Randy Neugebauer (R)-inc vs. Robert Ricketts (D)
  • District 20:  Charlie Gonzalez (D)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 21:*  Lamar Smith (R)-inc vs. John Courage (D)
  • District 23:*  Henry Bonilla (R)-inc vs. Rick Bolanos (D) - possible competitive race
  • District 24:  Kenny Marchant (R)-inc vs. Gary Page (D)
  • District 25:*  Lloyd Doggett (D)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 26:  Michael Burgess (R)-inc vs. Tim Barnwell (D)
  • District 27:  Solomon Ortiz (D)-inc vs. Willie Vaden (R)
  • District 28:*  Henry Cuellar (D)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 29:  Gene Green (D)-inc vs. Eric Story (R)
  • District 30:  Eddie Johnson (D)-inc vs. Wilson Aurbach (R)
  • District 31:  John Carter (R)-inc vs. Mary Beth Harrell (D)
  • District 32:  Pete Sessions (R)-inc vs. Will Pryor (D)

    * - open primary on November 7

    Election Timeline


  • January 2, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • March 7, 2006 - Primary elections
  • November 7, 2006 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 2 GOP
        Representatives 21 GOP, 11 DEM
      State Government
        Governor GOP
        Lt. Governor GOP
        State Senate - GOP control 19 GOP, 12 DEM
        State House - GOP control 83 GOP, 63 DEM, 1 open

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Rick Perry (R) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2006
  • Lt. Governor:  David Dewhurst (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2006
  • Senior Senator:  Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2006
  • Junior Senator:  John Cornyn (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2008
  • House District 1:  Louie Gohmert (R) - 1st term
  • House District 2:  Ted Poe (R) - 1st term
  • House District 3:  Sam Johnson (R) - 8th term
  • House District 4:  Ralph Hall (R) - 13th term
  • House District 5:  Jeb Hensarling (R) - 2nd term
  • House District 6:  Joe Barton (R) - 11th term
  • House District 7:  John Culberson (R) - 3rd term
  • House District 8:  Kevin Brady (R) - 5th term
  • House District 9:  Al Green (D) - 1st term
  • House District 10:  Mike McCaul (R) - 1st term
  • House District 11:  Michael Conaway (R) - 1st term
  • House District 12:  Kay Granger (R) - 5th term
  • House District 13:  "Mac" Thornberry (R) - 6th term
  • House District 14:  Ron Paul (R) - 8th term
  • House District 15:  Ruben Hinojosa (D) - 5th term
  • House District 16:  Silvestre Reyes (D) - 5th term
  • House District 17:  Chet Edwards (D) - 8th term
  • House District 18:  Sheila Jackson Lee (D) - 6th term
  • House District 19:  Randy Neugebauer (R) - 2nd term
  • House District 20:  Charlie Gonzalez (D) - 4th term
  • House District 21:  Lamar Smith (R) - 10th term
  • House District 22:  Tom DeLay (R) - 11th term (resigning)
  • House District 23:  Henry Bonilla (R) - 7th term
  • House District 24:  Kenny Marchant (R) - 1st term
  • House District 25:  Lloyd Doggett (D) - 6th term
  • House District 26:  Michael Burgess (R) - 2nd term
  • House District 27:  Solomon Ortiz (D) - 12th term
  • House District 28:  Henry Cuellar (D) - 1st term
  • House District 29:  Gene Green (D) - 7th term
  • House District 30:  Eddie Johnson (D) - 7th term
  • House District 31:  John Carter (R) - 2nd term
  • House District 32:  Pete Sessions (R) - 5th term

    Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop:  Utah
    Previous Stop:  Tennessee

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

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