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 Election 2006 Projections

 


 


Utah

Latest News and Updates


  • Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Hatch +24 (down 2) - 10/27/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Hatch +26 (unchanged) - 10/07/06
  • Sen:  Dan Jones:  Hatch 62%, Ashdown 25% - 10/04/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Hatch +26 (up 5) - 08/18/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Hatch +21 (up 1) - 07/26/06
  • Sen:  Dan Jones:  Hatch 63%, Ashdown 21% - 07/26/06
  • Tracking initiated - 07/15/06

    Conservative Ranking


    Utah is the most conservative state, voting 43.1% more Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Utah is trending REPUBLICAN.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    Utah ranks 4th among the 50 states.

    Senate Race


    Incumbent:  5-time GOP incumbent Orrin Hatch is up for re-election in 2006.  He faced only token primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Orrin Hatch - Incumbent  
  • Brian Jenkins
  • Ronald Levine
  • Michael Ridgway
  • Lawrence Topham

    Democrat Candidates

  • Pete Ashdown - Businessman  

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Orrin Hatch +35.5

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Hatch Ashdown
        Dan Jones 10/04 62% 25%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls 37.0 80% 29.6
        Incumbent approval 24 15% 3.6
        State partisanship 45.5 5% 2.3

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Hatch +35.5 Strong GOP Hold
        October 27, 2006 Hatch +35.5 Strong GOP Hold
        October 4, 2006 Hatch +35.8 Strong GOP Hold
        August 18, 2006 Hatch +39.8 Strong GOP Hold
        July 31, 2006 Hatch +39.0 Strong GOP Hold
        July 15, 2006 Hatch +38.1 Strong GOP Hold
        Preliminary ----- Strong GOP Hold

    Governor's Race


    No race in 2006

    Competitive House Races


    No competitive races in 2006

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Rob Bishop (R)-inc vs. Steven Olsen (D)
  • District 2:  Jim Matheson (D)-inc vs. LaVar Christensen (R)
  • District 3:  Christopher Cannon (R)-inc vs. Christian Burridge (D)

    Election Timeline


  • March 17, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • June 27, 2006 - Primary elections
  • November 7, 2006 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 2 GOP
        Representatives 2 GOP, 1 DEM
      State Government
        Governor GOP
        Lt. Governor - tied to Governor GOP
        State Senate - GOP control 21 GOP, 8 DEM
        State House - GOP control 56 GOP, 19 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  John Huntsman, Jr. (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2008
  • Lt. Governor:  Gary Herbert (R) - 1st term, tied to Governor
  • Senior Senator:  Orrin Hatch (R) - 5th term, up for re-election in 2006
  • Junior Senator:  Bob Bennett (R) - 3rd term, up for re-election in 2010
  • House District 1:  Rob Bishop (R) - 2nd term
  • House District 2:  Jim Matheson (D) - 3rd term
  • House District 3:  Christopher Cannon (R) - 5th term

    Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop:  Vermont
    Previous Stop:  Texas

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

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