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 Election 2006 Projections

 


 


Vermont

Latest News and Updates


  • Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
  • CD-AL:  Research 2000:  Welch 51%, Rainville 41% - 10/27/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Jeffords +33 (down 6) - 10/27/06
  • Sen:  Research 2000:  Sanders 57%, Tarrant 36% - 10/26/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Douglas +21 (down 7) - 10/23/06
  • Replaced TBC with Stuart Rothenberg in House race pundit projections - 10/16/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Jeffords +39 (up 7) - 10/07/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Douglas +28 (up 2) - 09/25/06
  • Sen:  Research 2000:  Sanders 58%, Tarrant 33% - 09/22/06
  • CD-AL:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak DEM Gain to Mod DEM Gain - 09/21/06
  • CD-AL:  Research 2000:  Welch 45%, Rainville 39% - 09/21/06
  • Sen:  American Research Group:  Sanders 55%, Tarrant 40% - 09/15/06
  • Gov:  American Research Group:  Douglas 59%, Parker 32% - 09/15/06
  • Tracking initiated and primary winners posted - 09/13/06

    Conservative Ranking


    Vermont is the 3rd least conservative state, voting 22.6% less Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Vermont is trending DEMOCRAT.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    Vermont ranks LAST among the 50 states.

    Senate Race


    OPEN SEAT:  Independent Jim Jeffords is retiring in 2007 after 3 terms.

    Independent Candidates

  • Bernie Sanders - Vermont Representative to the U.S. House

    GOP Candidates

  • Gregory Parke - Retired Army Officer and Former Candidate
  • Richard Tarrant - Healthcare Entrepreneur  
  • Cris Ericson

    Democrat Candidates

  • Bernie Sanders (refused nomination)
  • Larry Drown - 2004 Congressional Candidate
  • Peter Moss
  • Craig Hill
  • Louis Thabault

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Bernie Sanders +22.8

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Tarrant Sanders
        Research 2000 10/26 36% 57%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor Sanders

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls 21.0 85% 17.9
        Incumbent approval 33 15% 5.0

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Sanders +22.8 Strong IND Hold
        October 27, 2006 Sanders +22.8 Strong IND Hold
        October 26, 2006 Sanders +23.7 Strong IND Hold
        October 7, 2006 Sanders +22.9 Strong IND Hold
        September 22, 2006 Sanders +21.8 Strong IND Hold
        September 15, 2006 Sanders +15.1 Strong IND Hold
        September 13, 2006 Sanders +26.8 Strong IND Hold
        Preliminary ----- Strong IND Hold

    Governor's Race


    Incumbent:  GOP incumbent Jim Douglas seeks a third term in 2006.  He faces no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Jim Douglas - Incumbent  

    Democrat Candidates

  • Scudder Parker - Former Vermont State Senator  

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Jim Douglas +23.7

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Douglas Parker
        ARG 09/15 59% 32%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls 27.0 80% 21.6
        Incumbent approval 21 15% 3.2
        State partisanship -20.1 5% -1.0

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Douglas +23.7 Strong GOP Hold
        October 23, 2006 Douglas +23.7 Strong GOP Hold
        September 25, 2006 Douglas +24.8 Strong GOP Hold
        September 15, 2006 Douglas +24.5 Strong GOP Hold
        September 13, 2006 Douglas +17.3 Strong GOP Hold
        Preliminary ----- Strong GOP Hold

    Competitive House Races


    District 1


    OPEN SEAT:  Independent Bernie Sanders is seeking a Senate seat in 2006.

    GOP Candidates

  • Martha Rainville - Major General, Vermont Air National Guard  

    Democrat Candidates

  • Peter Welch - Vermont State Senate President Pro Tem  

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Peter Welch +7.0 - DEM pick-up

    Pundit Predictions

      Pundit Date Prediction
        Stuart Rothenberg   10/13 Welch by 8 (DEM Favored)
        Charlie Cook 09/07 Welch by 4
        Larry Sabato 08/29 Welch by 4
        Congressional Quarterly 08/14 Welch by 4

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Rainville Welch
        Research 2000 10/27 41% 51%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor Welch

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Pundit predictions 5.0 70% 3.5
        Head-to-head polls 10.0 25% 2.5
        District partisanship 20.1 5% 1.0

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Welch 7.0 Mod DEM Gain
        October 27, 2006 Welch 7.0 Mod DEM Gain
        October 16, 2006 Welch 5.5 Mod DEM Gain
        September 21, 2006 Welch 5.1 Mod DEM Gain
        September 16, 2006 Welch 4.6 Weak DEM Gain
        Preliminary ----- Strong DEM Gain

    Other House Races


  • None

    Election Timeline


  • July 17, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • September 12, 2006 - Primary elections
  • November 7, 2006 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 1 DEM, 1 IND
        Representatives 1 IND
      State Government
        Governor GOP
        Lt. Governor GOP
        State Senate - DEM control 9 GOP, 21 DEM
        State House - DEM control 60 GOP, 83 DEM, 7 other

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Jim Douglas (R) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2006
  • Lt. Governor:  Brain Dubie (D) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2006
  • Senior Senator:  Patrick Leahy (D) - 6th term, up for re-election in 2010
  • Junior Senator:  Jim Jeffords (I) - 3rd term, not seeking re-election in 2006
  • House District 1:  Bernie Sanders (I) - 8th term (running for Senate)

    Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop: 
    Virginia
    Previous Stop:  Utah

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

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