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 Election 2006 Projections

 


 


Virginia

Latest News and Updates


  • Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Allen 50%, Webb 48% - 11/02/06
  • CD-2:  Constituent Dynamics:  Kellam 50%, Drake 45% - 10/31/06
  • Sen:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain - 10/31/06
  • Sen:  CNN:  Webb 50%, Allen 46% - 10/31/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Webb 51%, Allen 46% - 10/30/06
  • CD-2:  Mason-Dixon:  Drake 46%, Kellam 44% - 10/27/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Allen +1 (down 7) - 10/27/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Allen 50%, Webb 48% - 10/27/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA:  Allen 49%, Webb 46% - 10/26/06
  • Sen:  LA Times/Bloomberg:  Webb 47%, Allen 44% - 10/25/06
  • Sen:  Mason-Dixon:  Allen 47%, Webb 43% - 10/24/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Allen 47%, Webb 44% - 10/16/06
  • Sen:  Washington Post:  Allen 49%, Webb 47% - 10/16/06
  • Replaced TBC with Stuart Rothenberg in House race pundit projections - 10/16/06
  • CD-2:  Constituent Dynamics:  Drake 48%, Kellam 48% - 10/13/06
  • CD-2:  Greenberg Quinlan (D):  Kellam 52%, Drake 41% - 10/13/06
  • Sen:  RATING CHANGE:  Mod GOP Hold to Weak GOP Hold - 10/07/06
  • Sen:  USA Today/Gallup:  Allen 48%, Webb 45% - 10/07/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Allen +8 (down 5) - 10/07/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA:  Allen 50%, Webb 44% - 10/02/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Allen 49%, Webb 43% - 10/02/06
  • Sen:  Mason-Dixon:  Allen 43%, Webb 43% - 10/02/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA:  Allen 49%, Webb 44% - 09/28/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Allen 50%, Webb 43% - 09/15/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA:  Allen 48%, Webb 45% - 09/13/06
  • Sen:  Mason-Dixon:  Allen 46%, Webb 42% - 09/12/06
  • CD-2:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak DEM Gain to Weak GOP Hold - 09/12/06
  • CD-2:  McLaughlin Associates:  Drake 48%, Kellam 41% - 09/12/06
  • CD-2:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain - 09/07/06
  • CD-2:  Constituent Dynamics:  Kellam 51%, Drake 43% - 09/07/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA:  Allen 48%, Webb 45% - 08/22/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Allen +13 (up 1) - 08/18/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Allen 47%, Webb 42% - 08/18/06
  • CD-2:  RATING CHANGE:  not competitive to Weak GOP Hold - 08/09/06
  • Sen:  Mason-Dixon:  Allen 48%, Webb 32% - 07/31/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Allen 50%, Webb 39% - 07/31/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Allen +12 (down 5) - 07/26/06
  • Tracking initiated - 07/15/06

    Conservative Ranking


    Virginia is the 24th most conservative state, voting 5.7% more Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Virginia is trending is DEMOCRAT.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    Virginia ranks 40th among the 50 states.

    Senate Race


    Incumbent:  Freshman Republican George Allen is seeking a second term in 2006.  He faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • George Allen - Incumbent  

    Democrat Candidates

  • James Webb, Jr. - Former Navy Secretary  
  • Harris Miller

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  James Webb, Jr. +1.0 - DEM pick-up

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Allen Webb
        SurveyUSA 11/05 44% 52%
        Mason-Dixon 11/03 45% 46%
        Rasmussen 11/02 49% 49%
        Roanoke College 10/29 45% 42%
        CNN 10/29 46% 50%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls -2.0 80% -1.6
        Incumbent approval 1 15% 0.2
        State partisanship 8.2 5% 0.4

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Webb +1.0 Weak DEM Gain
        November 2, 2006 Webb +0.4 Weak DEM Gain
        October 31, 2006 Webb +1.2 Weak DEM Gain
        October 30, 2006 Allen +0.4 Weak GOP Hold
        October 27, 2006 Allen +1.8 Weak GOP Hold
        October 26, 2006 Allen +3.1 Weak GOP Hold
        October 25, 2006 Allen +2.8 Weak GOP Hold
        October 24, 2006 Allen +4.5 Weak GOP Hold
        October 16, 2006 Allen +3.9 Weak GOP Hold
        October 7, 2006 Allen +4.6 Weak GOP Hold
        October 2, 2006 Allen +5.6 Mod GOP Hold
        September 28, 2006 Allen +6.6 Mod GOP Hold
        September 14, 2006 Allen +6.1 Mod GOP Hold
        September 3, 2006 Allen +5.6 Mod GOP Hold
        August 22, 2006 Allen +8.8 Mod GOP Hold
        August 18, 2006 Allen +10.8 Mod GOP Hold
        July 31, 2006 Allen +12.8 Mod GOP Hold
        July 15, 2006 Allen +12.6 Mod GOP Hold
        Preliminary ----- Strong GOP Hold

    Governor's Race


    No race in 2006

    Competitive House Races


    District 2


    Incumbent:  GOP incumbent Thelma Drake is up for a second term 2006.  She faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Thelma Drake - Incumbent  

    Democrat Candidates

  • Philip Kellam - Virginia Commissioner of Revenue  

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Thelma Drake +0.6

    Pundit Predictions

      Pundit Date Prediction
        Stuart Rothenberg   10/13 Toss-up
        Charlie Cook 07/19 Toss-up
        Larry Sabato 11/06 Drake by 2 (Tilts GOP)
        Congressional Quarterly 08/09 Drake by 4 (Leans GOP)

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Drake Kellam
        Constituent Dynamics 10/26 45% 50%
        Mason-Dixon 10/24 46% 44%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Pundit predictions 1.5 45% 0.7
        Head-to-head polls -1.5 50% -0.8
        District partisanship 13 5% 0.7

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Drake +0.6 Weak GOP Hold
        October 31, 2006 Drake +0.4 Weak GOP Hold
        October 27, 2006 Drake +1.9 Weak GOP Hold
        October 16, 2006 Drake +0.3 Weak GOP Hold
        October 13, 2006 Drake +0.7 Weak GOP Hold
        October 7, 2006 Drake +0.05 Weak GOP Hold
        September 12, 2006 Drake +1.3 Weak GOP Hold
        September 7, 2006 Kellam +1.2 Weak DEM Gain
        August 9, 2006 Drake +1.8 Weak GOP Hold
        Preliminary ----- not competitive

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Jo Ann Davis (R)-inc vs. Shawn O'Donnell (D)
  • District 3:  Bobby Scott (D)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 4:  Randy Forbes (R)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 5:  Virgil Goode, Jr. (R)-inc vs. Albert Weed, II (D)
  • District 6:  Bob Goodlatte (R)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 7:  Eric Cantor (R)-inc vs. James Nachman (D)
  • District 8:  Jim Moran, Jr. (D)-inc vs. Thomas O'Donoghue (R)
  • District 9:  Rick Boucher (D)-inc vs. Bill Carrico, Sr. (R)
  • District 10:  Frank Wolf (R)-inc vs. Judy Feder (D)
  • District 11:  Tom Davis, III (R)-inc vs. Andrew Hurst (D)

    Election Timeline


  • April 19, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • June 13, 2006 - Primary elections
  • November 7, 2006 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 2 GOP
        Representatives 8 GOP, 3 DEM
      State Government
        Governor DEM
        Lt. Governor GOP
        State Senate - GOP control 23 GOP, 17 DEM
        State House - GOP control 57 GOP, 40 DEM, 3 IND

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Tim Kaine (D) - 1st term, barred from running in 2009
  • Lt. Governor:  Bill Bolling (R) - 1st term, next election in 2009
  • Senior Senator:  John Warner (R) - 4th term, up for re-election in 2008
  • Junior Senator:  George Allen (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2006
  • House District 1:  Jo Ann Davis (R) - 3rd term
  • House District 2:  Thelma Drake (R) - 1st term
  • House District 3:  Bobby Scott (D) - 7th term
  • House District 4:  Randy Forbes (R) - 3rd term
  • House District 5:  Virgil Goode (R) - 5th term
  • House District 6:  Bob Goodlatte (R) - 7th term
  • House District 7:  Eric Cantor (R) - 3rd term
  • House District 8:  Jim Moran, Jr. (D) - 8th term
  • House District 9:  Rick Boucher (D) - 12th term
  • House District 10:  Frank Wolf (R) - 13th term
  • House District 11:  Tom Davis, III (R) - 6th term

    Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop:  Washington
    Previous Stop:  Vermont

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

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