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 Election 2006 Projections

 


 


Washington

Latest News and Updates


  • Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
  • Sen:  University of Washington:  Cantwell 53%, McGavick 41% - 11/02/06
  • CD-8:  SurveyUSA:  Reichert 51%, Burner 45% - 11/01/06
  • CD-8:  Constituent Dynamics:  Burner 49%, Reichert 47% - 10/31/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA:  Cantwell 54%, McGavick 41% - 10/31/06
  • Sen:  Strategic Vision:  Cantwell 52%, McGavick 44% - 10/31/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Cantwell 54%, McGavick 42% - 10/30/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Cantwell +5 (down 9) - 10/27/06
  • Sen:  Mason-Dixon:  Cantwell 52%, McGavick 37% - 10/25/06
  • Sen:  Strategic Vision:  Cantwell 51%, McGavick 42% - 10/21/06
  • CD-8:  SurveyUSA:  Reichert 50%, Burner 47% - 10/19/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA:  Cantwell 51%, McGavick 43% - 10/17/06
  • Replaced TBC with Stuart Rothenberg in House race pundit projections - 10/16/06
  • CD-8:  Constituent Dynamics:  Reichert 48%, Burner 45% - 10/13/06
  • CD-8:  Pundit rating change - 10/11/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Cantwell +14 (down 3) - 10/07/06
  • Sen:  Mason-Dixon:  Cantwell 50%, McGavick 40% - 10/02/06
  • Sen:  Strategic Vision:  Cantwell 49%, McGavick 40% - 09/28/06
  • CD-8:  SurveyUSA:  Reichert 49%, Burner 46% - 09/28/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA:  Cantwell 54%, McGavick 42% - 09/27/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Cantwell 48%, McGavick 42% - 09/25/06
  • Sen:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak DEM Hold to Mod DEM Hold - 09/20/06
  • Tracking initiated and primary winners posted - 09/20/06

    Conservative Ranking


    Washington is the 12th least conservative state, voting 9.6% less Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Washington is trending is DEMOCRAT.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    Washington ranks 43rd among the 50 states.

    Senate Race


    Incumbent:  Democrat Maria Cantwell is seeking re-election for the first time in 2006.  She faced only token primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Mike McGavick - Safeco CEO  
  • Brad Klippert - Former Congressional Candidate
  • William Chovil
  • Gordon Pross
  • Warren Hanson
  • Barry Massoudi

    Democrat Candidates

  • Maria Cantwell - Incumbent  
  • Hong Tran - Attorney
  • Michael Goodspaceguy Nelson
  • Mike The Mover
  • Mohammad Said

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Maria Cantwell +10.9

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date McGavick Cantwell
        Mason-Dixon 11/02 38% 54%
        Univ. of Washington 11/02 41% 53%
        Strategic Vision 10/31 44% 52%
        SurveyUSA 10/29 41% 54%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls 12.3 80% 9.8
        Incumbent approval 5 15% 0.8
        State partisanship 7.2 5% 0.4

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Cantwell +10.9 Mod DEM Hold
        October 31, 2006 Cantwell +10.7 Mod DEM Hold
        October 30, 2006 Cantwell +9.9 Mod DEM Hold
        October 27, 2006 Cantwell +9.6 Mod DEM Hold
        October 25, 2006 Cantwell +11.0 Mod DEM Hold
        October 17, 2006 Cantwell +9.1 Mod DEM Hold
        October 7, 2006 Cantwell +9.9 Mod DEM Hold
        October 2, 2006 Cantwell +10.3 Mod DEM Hold
        September 27, 2006 Cantwell +10.1 Mod DEM Hold
        September 25, 2006 Cantwell +10.4 Mod DEM Hold
        September 20, 2006 Cantwell +13.3 Mod DEM Hold
        Preliminary ----- Weak DEM Hold

    Governor's Race


    No race in 2006

    Competitive House Races


    District 8


    Incumbent:  Freshman GOPer Dave Reichert is up for a second term in 2006.  He faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Dave Reichert - Incumbent  

    Democrat Candidates

  • Darcy Burner - Former Microsoft Executive  

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Dave Reichert +1.5

    Pundit Predictions

      Pundit Date Prediction
        Stuart Rothenberg   10/13 Reichert by 2 (Tilts GOP)
        Charlie Cook 11/06 Reichert by 4 (Leans GOP)
        Larry Sabato 11/06 Reichert by 2 (Tilts GOP)
        Congressional Quarterly 10/11 Toss-up

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Reichert Burner
        SurveyUSA 10/30 49% 49%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Pundit predictions 2.0 45% 1.4
        Head-to-head polls 0.0 50% 0.0
        District partisanship 1.0 5% 0.1

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Reichert +1.5 Weak GOP Hold
        November 1, 2006 Reichert +1.3 Weak GOP Hold
        October 31, 2006 Reichert +0.5 Weak GOP Hold
        October 13, 2006 Reichert +1.8 Weak GOP Hold
        October 11, 2006 Reichert +1.1 Weak GOP Hold
        October 7, 2006 Reichert +1.5 Weak GOP Hold
        September 28, 2006 Reichert +2.0 Weak GOP Hold
        September 20, 2006 Reichert +4.5 Weak GOP Hold
        Preliminary ----- Weak GOP Hold

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Jay Inslee (D)-inc vs. Larry Ishmael (R)
  • District 2:  Rick Larsen (D)-inc vs. Doug Roulstone (R)
  • District 3:  Brian Baird (D)-inc vs. Michael Messmore (R)
  • District 4:  "Doc" Hastings (R)-inc vs. Richard Wright (D)
  • District 5:  Cathy McMorris (R)-inc vs. Peter Goldmark (D)
  • District 6:  Norman Dicks (D)-inc vs. Doug Cloud (R)
  • District 7:  Jim McDermott (D)-inc vs. Steve Beren (R)
  • District 9:  Adam Smith (D)-inc vs. Steve Cofchin (R)

    Election Timeline


  • July 28, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • September 19, 2006 - Primary elections
  • November 7, 2006 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 2 DEM
        Representatives 3 GOP, 6 DEM
      State Government
        Governor DEM
        Lt. Governor DEM
        State Senate - DEM control 23 GOP, 26 DEM
        State House - DEM control 43 GOP, 55 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Christine Gregoire (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2008
  • Lt. Governor:  Brad Owen (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2008
  • Senior Senator:  Patty Murray (D) - 3rd term, up for re-election in 2010
  • Junior Senator:  Maria Cantwell (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2006
  • House District 1:  Jay Inslee (D) - 4th term
  • House District 2:  Rick Larsen (D) - 3rd term
  • House District 3:  Brian Baird (D) - 4th term
  • House District 4:  "Doc" Hastings (R) - 6th term
  • House District 5:  Cathy McMorris (R) - 1st term
  • House District 6:  Norman Dicks (D) - 15th term (might retire)
  • House District 7:  Jim McDermott (D) - 9th term (might retire)
  • House District 8:  Dave Reichert (R) - 1st term
  • House District 9:  Adam Smith (D) - 5th term

    Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop:  West Virginia
    Previous Stop:  Virginia

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

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