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 Election 2006 Projections

 


 


West Virginia

Latest News and Updates


  • Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Byrd +31 (up 4) - 10/27/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Byrd +27 (down 6) - 10/07/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Bryd 63%, Raese 30% - 09/12/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Byrd +33 (up 2) - 08/18/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Bryd 56%, Raese 31% - 08/07/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Byrd +31 (down 6) - 07/26/06
  • Tracking initiated - 07/15/06

    Conservative Ranking


    West Virginia is the 20th most conservative state, voting 10.4% more Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, West Virginia is trending REPUBLICAN.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    West Virginia ranks 2nd among the 50 states.

    Senate Race


    Incumbent:  Democrat Robert Byrd is seeking a ninth term in 2006.  He faced only token primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Paul Brown
  • Zane Lawhorn - Optometrist
  • Hiram "Bucky" Lewis, IV - Former Senate Candidate
  • Charles "Bud" Railey
  • John Raese - Businessman  
  • Rick Snuffer - Former Congressional Candidate

    Democrat Candidates

  • Robert Byrd - Incumbent  

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Robert Byrd +30.4

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Raese Byrd
        Rasmussen 09/12 30% 63%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls 33.0 80% 26.4
        Incumbent approval 31 15% 4.7
        State partisanship -12.9 5% -0.6

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Byrd +30.4 Strong DEM Hold
        October 27, 2006 Byrd +30.4 Strong DEM Hold
        October 7, 2006 Byrd +29.8 Strong DEM Hold
        September 12, 2006 Byrd +30.7 Strong DEM Hold
        August 18, 2006 Byrd +25.9 Strong DEM Hold
        August 7, 2006 Byrd +25.6 Strong DEM Hold
        July 31, 2006 Byrd +24.9 Strong DEM Hold
        July 10, 2006 Byrd +25.7 Strong DEM Hold
        Preliminary ----- Strong DEM Hold

    Governor's Race


    No race in 2006

    Competitive House Races


    No competitive races in 2006

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Alan Mollohan (D)-inc vs. Chris Wakim (R)
  • District 2:  Shelley Capito (R)-inc vs. Mike Callaghan (D)
  • District 3:  Nick Joe Rahall, II (D)-inc vs. Kim Wolfe (R)

    Election Timeline


  • January 28, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • May 9, 2006 - Primary elections
  • November 7, 2006 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 2 DEM
        Representatives 1 GOP, 2 DEM
      State Government
        Governor DEM
        State Senate - DEM control 14 GOP, 20 DEM
        State House - DEM control 33 GOP, 67 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Joe Manchin, II (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2008
  • Senior Senator:  Robert Byrd (D) - 8th term, up for re-election in 2006
  • Junior Senator:  Jay Rockefeller, IV (D) - 4th term, up for re-election in 2008
  • House District 1:  Alan Mollohan (D) - 12th term
  • House District 2:  Shelley Capito (R) - 3rd term
  • House District 3:  Nick Joe Rahall, II (D) - 15th term

    Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop:  Wisconsin
    Previous Stop:  Washington

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

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