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 Election 2006 Projections

 


 


Wisconsin

Latest News and Updates


  • Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
  • CD-8:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain - 10/31/06
  • CD-8:  Constituent Dynamics:  Kagen 51%, Gard 45% - 10/31/06
  • CD-8:  Press-Gazette:  Gard 46%, Kagen 46% - 10/30/06
  • Gov:  University of Wisconsin:  Doyle 50%, Green 36% - 10/31/06
  • Gov:  Strategic Vision:  Doyle 47%, Green 45% - 10/31/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Kohl +30 (down 1) - 10/27/06
  • Gov:  RATING CHANGE:  Mod DEM Hold to Weak DEM Hold - 10/23/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Doyle -2 (down 5) - 10/23/06
  • CD-8:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak DEM Gain to Weak GOP Hold - 10/21/06
  • CD-8:  Pundit rating change - 10/21/06
  • Gov:  RATING CHANGE:  Weak DEM Hold to Mod DEM Hold - 10/21/06
  • Gov:  Wisconsin Public Radio:  Doyle 51%, Green 38% - 10/21/06
  • Replaced TBC with Stuart Rothenberg in House race pundit projections - 10/16/06
  • CD-8:  Pundit rating change - 10/13/06
  • CD-8:  Constituent Dynamics:  Kagen 48%, Gard 46% - 10/13/06
  • Gov:  Strategic Vision:  Doyle 46%, Green 43% - 10/11/06
  • Gov:  Research 2000:  Doyle 48%, Green 42% - 10/07/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Kohl +31 (up 12) - 10/07/06
  • Gov:  Wisconsin Policy Research:  Doyle 45%, Green 40% - 09/27/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Kohl 60%, Lorge 33% - 09/25/06
  • Gov:  RATING CHANGE:  Mod DEM Hold to Weak DEM Hold - 09/25/06
  • Gov:  Rasmussen:  Doyle 47%, Green 44% - 09/25/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Doyle +3 (up 3) - 09/25/06
  • Gov:  Strategic Vision:  Doyle 46%, Green 42% - 09/20/06
  • Tracking initiated and primary winners posted - 09/13/06

    Conservative Ranking


    Wisconsin is the 19th least conservative state, voting 2.9% less Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Wisconsin is trending DEMOCRAT.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    Wisconsin ranks 35th among the 50 states.

    Senate Race


    Incumbent:  Democrat Herb Kohl is running for a fourth term in 2006.  He faced only token primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Robert Lorge - Attorney  

    Democrat Candidates

  • Herb Kohl - Incumbent  
  • Latesha Jude

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Herb Kohl +26.1

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Lorge Kohl
        Rasmussen 09/25 33% 60%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls 27.0 80% 21.6
        Incumbent approval 30 15% 4.5
        State partisanship 0.4 5% 0.02

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Kohl +26.1 Strong DEM Hold
        October 27, 2006 Kohl +26.1 Strong DEM Hold
        October 7, 2006 Kohl +26.3 Strong DEM Hold
        September 25, 2006 Kohl +24.5 Strong DEM Hold
        September 13, 2006 Kohl +25.3 Strong DEM Hold
        Preliminary ----- Strong DEM Hold

    Governor's Race


    Incumbent:  Democrat James Doyle is up for re-election for the first time in 2006.  He faced only token primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Mark Green - Wisconsin Representative to the U.S. House  

    Democrat Candidates

  • James Doyle - Incumbent  

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  James Doyle +5.6

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Green Doyle
        Research 2000 11/01 44% 50%
        Univ. of Wisconsin 10/26 36% 50%
        Strategic Vision 10/26 45% 47%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls 7.3 80% 5.9
        Incumbent approval -2 15% -0.3
        State partisanship 0.4 5% 0.02

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Doyle +5.6 Mod DEM Hold
        October 31, 2006 Doyle +6.1 Mod DEM Hold
        October 23, 2006 Doyle +4.5 Weak DEM Hold
        October 21, 2006 Doyle +5.3 Mod DEM Hold
        October 11, 2006 Doyle +3.9 Weak DEM Hold
        October 7, 2006 Doyle +4.1 Weak DEM Hold
        September 25, 2006 Doyle +4.7 Weak DEM Hold
        September 20, 2006 Doyle +5.2 Mod DEM Hold
        September 13, 2006 Doyle +7.2 Mod DEM Hold
        Preliminary ----- Weak DEM Hold

    Competitive House Races


    District 8


    OPEN SEAT:  GOP incumbent Mark Green is running for Wisconsin governor in 2006.

    GOP Candidates

  • John Gard - Wisconsin State Assembly Speaker  
  • Terry McCormick - Wisconsin State Representative

    Democrat Candidates

  • Steve Kagen - Allergy Clinic Entreprenuer  
  • Nancy Nusbaum - Former Brown County Executive
  • Jamie Wall - Businessman

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Steve Kagen +0.7 - DEM pick-up

    Pundit Predictions

      Pundit Date Prediction
        Stuart Rothenberg   10/21 Toss-up
        Charlie Cook 10/06 Toss-up
        Larry Sabato 11/06 Gard by 2 (Tilts GOP)
        Congressional Quarterly 10/21 Toss-up

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Gard Kagen
        Constituent Dynamics 10/26 45% 51%
        Press Gazette 10/25 46% 46%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Pundit predictions 0.5 45% 0.2
        Head-to-head polls -3.0 50% -1.5
        District partisanship 11 5% 0.6

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Kagen +0.7 Weak DEM Gain
        October 31, 2006 Kagen +1.0 Weak DEM Gain
        October 30, 2006 Gard +0.6 Weak GOP Hold
        October 21, 2006 Gard +0.1 Weak GOP Hold
        October 13, 2006 Gard +0.2 Weak GOP Hold
        October 7, 2006 Gard +2.0 Weak GOP Hold
        September 13, 2006 Gard +4.1 Weak GOP Hold
        Preliminary ----- Weak GOP Hold

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Paul Ryan (R)-inc vs. Jeffrey Thomas (D)
  • District 2:  Tammy Baldwin (D)-inc vs. David Magnum (R)
  • District 3:  Ronald Kind (D)-inc vs. Paul Nelson (R)
  • District 4:  Gwendolynne Moore (D)-inc vs. Perfecto Rivera (R)
  • District 5:  Jim Sensenbrenner (R)-inc vs. Bryan Kennedy (D)
  • District 6:  Tom Petri (R)-inc vs. John Curry (D)
  • District 7:  David Obey (D)-inc vs. Nick Reid (R)

    Election Timeline


  • July 11, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • September 12, 2006 - Primary elections
  • November 7, 2006 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 2 DEM
        Representatives 4 GOP, 4 DEM
      State Government
        Governor DEM
        Lt. Governor - tied to Governor DEM
        State Senate - GOP control 19 GOP, 14 DEM
        State House - GOP control 61 GOP, 38 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  James Doyle (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2006
  • Lt. Governor:  Barbara Lawton (D) - 1st term, tied to Governor
  • Senior Senator:  Herb Kohl (D) - 3rd term, up for re-election in 2006
  • Junior Senator:  Russ Feingold (D) - 3rd term, up for re-election in 2010
  • House District 1:  Paul Ryan (R) - 4th term
  • House District 2:  Tammy Baldwin (D) - 4th term
  • House District 3:  Ronald Kind (D) - 5th term
  • House District 4:  Gwendolynne Moore (D) - 1st term
  • House District 5:  Jim Sensenbrenner, Jr. (R) - 14th term
  • House District 6:  Tom Petri (R) - 7th term
  • House District 7:  David Obey (D) - 19th term
  • House District 8:  Mark Green (R) - 4th term (running for Governor)

    Tour The 50 States


    Next Stop:  Wyoming
    Previous Stop:  West Virginia

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

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