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 Election 2006 Projections

 


 


Wyoming

Latest News and Updates


  • Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Thomas +32 (down 4) - 10/27/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Freudenthal +47 (up 4) - 10/23/06
  • Sen:  Mason-Dixon:  Thomas 67%, Radnofsky 26% - 10/18/06
  • Gov:  Mason-Dixon:  Freudenthal 63%, Hunkins 30% - 10/16/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Freudenthal +43 (up 4) - 09/25/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Thomas +36 (up 6) - 10/07/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Freudenthal +43 (up 4) - 09/25/06
  • Gov:  SurveyUSA approval:  Freudenthal +39 (up 1) - 08/27/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Thomas +30 (down 3) - 08/18/06
  • Sen:  SurveyUSA approval:  Thomas +33 (up 10) - 07/26/06
  • Sen:  Rasmussen:  Thomas 59%, Radnofsky 32% - 07/20/06
  • Primary winners posted - 08/24/06
  • Tracking initiated - 07/18/06

    Conservative Ranking


    Wyoming is the 2nd most conservative state, voting 37.3% more Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Wyoming is trending REPUBLICAN.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    Wyoming ranks FIRST among the 50 states.

    Senate Race


    Incumbent:  Second-termer Craig Thomas seeks a third in 2006.  He faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Craig Thomas - Incumbent  

    Democrat Candidates

  • Dale Groutage - Engineer  

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Craig Thomas +39.6

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Thomas Groutage
        Mason-Dixon 10/18 67% 26%

    Projection Data

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls 41.0 80% 32.8
        Incumbent approval 32 15% 4.8
        State partisanship 39.8 5% 2.0

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Thomas +39.6 Strong GOP Hold
        October 27, 2006 Thomas +39.6 Strong GOP Hold
        October 18, 2006 Thomas +40.2 Strong GOP Hold
        October 7, 2006 Thomas +29.0 Strong GOP Hold
        August 18, 2006 Thomas +28.1 Strong GOP Hold
        July 31, 2006 Thomas +28.6 Strong GOP Hold
        July 20, 2006 Thomas +27.0 Strong GOP Hold
        Preliminary ----- Strong GOP Hold

    Governor's Race


    Incumbent:  Democrat Dave Freudenthal is seeking re-election for the first time in 2006.  He faced only token primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Raymond Hunkins - Attoney  
  • John Self

    Democrat Candidates

  • Dave Freudenthal - Incumbent  
  • Al Hamburg

    Party nominee -


    Election Projection:  Dave Freudenthal +31.5

    Polling Data

      Polling Firm    Date Hunkins Freudenthal
        Mason-Dixon 10/16 30% 63%

    Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

      Index    Raw value Weight Factor
        Head-to head polls 33.0 80% 26.4
        Incumbent approval 47 15% 7.1
        State partisanship -39.8 5% -2.0

    Projection History

      Date    Projection Rating
        Final Projection Freudenthal +31.5 Strong DEM Hold
        October 23, 2006 Freudenthal +31.5 Strong DEM Hold
        October 16, 2006 Freudenthal +30.9 Strong DEM Hold
        September 25, 2006 Freudenthal +27.7 Strong DEM Hold
        August 27, 2006 Freudenthal +27.1 Strong DEM Hold
        August 24, 2006 Freudenthal +26.9 Strong DEM Hold
        Preliminary ----- Strong DEM Hold

    Competitive House Races


    No competitive races in 2006

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Barbara Cubin (R)-inc vs. Gary Trauner (D) - possible competitive race

    Election Timeline


  • June 2, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • August 22, 2006 - Primary elections
  • November 7, 2006 - Election day

    Current Partisan Breakdown


      National Delegation
        Senators 2 GOP
        Representatives 1 GOP
      State Government
        Governor DEM
        State Senate - GOP control 23 GOP, 7 DEM
        State House - GOP control 46 GOP, 14 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Dave Freudenthal (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2006
  • Senior Senator:  Craig Thomas (R) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2006
  • Junior Senator:  Mike Enzi (R) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2008
  • House District 1:  Barbara Cubin (R) - 6th term

    Tour The 50 States


    Previous Stop:  Wisconsin

    Special Thanks to...


    Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
    Congressional Quarterly
    The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
    The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
    DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
    RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

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