General Description
The formula for contested House races is substantially unlike the formulas I described above. There are four main differences between this
formula and the one used for Senate and gubernatorial races. First, since job approval numbers for House members are extremely difficult to
track, there is not a job approval component to the formula.
Second, published polls for district races are also much more difficult to find than for Senate or gubernatorial races, so I needed another
metric which would be reliable and consistent throughout the election season. The aggregate race ratings of four wellknown pundits is that
metric. The predictions of Stuart Rothenberg, Charlie Cook, Larry Sabato, and the Congressional Quarterly will be used. Since their
predictions are qualitative (i.e. leans, tossup, solid, etc), I will assign a margin of victory to them as follows:
Tossup/ No Clear Favorite 
Tilt 
Lean 
Likely/ Favored 
Solid/ Safe 
0% 
2% 
4% 
8% 
16% 
Third, when polling data can be obtained, their weight be will based on whether one poll or multiple polls are available. If one poll is
available, it will get a 25% chunk of the projection. If two polls have been published, the average will be taken, and
that result will be 50% of the projection. Currency stipulations posted in the Senate and gubernatorial formula explanation will apply here
as well.
Finally, partisan polls will be used with a caveat. The results will be adjusted by subtracting 3 points from the party of the pollster and
adding them to the other party. For example, if a Republican polling firm publishes a poll with the GOP candidate winning 54% to 40%, the poll will be
entered into the calculations as 51% to 43%.
