Generics: So many polls, so many stories. The poll which asks respondents which party they would prefer to vote for in the their congressional race, know as the generic congressional preference poll, is an important factor in determining race ratings for House contests here at Election Projection. The aggregate of these polls provides salient insight into the color and size of any wave. But there’s a catch – these polls can vary wildly between surveys. For example, today’s calculation includes two polls, by Fox and CNN, showing Democrats leading by 11 points while two other polls put this metric dead even, Rasmussen and IBD/TIPP. Whether or not Democrats take the House will be based largely on where this aggregate lands on Election Day. If it’s anywhere near +11 for the Democrats, look out for a sweep that will rival the Republican gains of 2010. If it is near even, count on a GOP Speaker come January.
NY-27: Earlier this month, Congressman Chris Collins, after charges of insider trading were filed against him, announced he would not seek re-election. Problem is, he’s already won the GOP nomination and is on the November 6th ballot. GOP leaders are looking for ways to get someone else on the ballot instead. State Senator Mike Ranzenhofer was a potential replacement for Collins. That is until he decided to remove himself from consideration.
Collins’ problems have created a difficult situation for New York Republicans, one that could push this comfortably red seat into competitive waters. So far, none of the pundits I use to fashion my House projections has moved this race into hotly-contested territory (all three have moved it from Safe GOP to Likely GOP, however.) This one is certainly worth keeping an eye on in the coming weeks. Right now, it isn’t listed among the 78 competitive House elections tracked by EP. But that could change. We’ll see.
WI Gov: Scott Walker, Wisconsin Republican governor, has shown the ability to win tight races in the past. After winning a hard-fought victory in 2010, Walker earned the singular designation, in 2012, as the only governor to survive a recall election. Two years later, he prevailed in another tight race. This year, he’s seeking a third term and fourth gubernatorial election victory. Early polls gave his Democratic opponent, Tony Evers, a sizable lead. Perhaps as a testimony to Walker’s staying power, more recent polls show the race tightening within the margin of error. Will Walker’s good fortune run out in 2018? Or will his formidable ground game and organization carry him to yet another narrow win? As Walker has endeared the love of his supporters and the ire of his opponents all over the nation, all eyes will be on this race Tuesday night, November 6th.