House Projections: Even though there is little movement in the numbers on the House side of things, it is important to note that several seats teeter on the edge of flipping. Two Republican seats and no less than 13 Democratic seats are within 0.5 points in today’s projection. A move of 2 percentage points in either direction in the Generic Congressional Preference polls would have a significant impact on the projected balance of power. In fact, such a move would wipe away the projected Democratic takeover in the House.
Bottom line: While this is certainly a trying cycle for Republicans, if they can improve their standing just a bit, they stand a chance of avoiding a Democratic sweep that would wrest away control of the House.
Senate Projections: Buoyed by a dearth of seats up for re-election and a full quiver of blue seats in states that President Trump won, Republicans in the Senate face a much less daunting task as they strive to keep control of the upper chamber. To illustrate the right-leaning draw of this cycle’s slate of Senate elections, there are more Democratic seats up for re-election in states Trump carried (9) than all contested Republican seats (8). As a result, Senate Republicans are well-positioned to actually gain a seat or two this year.
Governor Projections: Democrats look forward to closing the substantial gap Republicans have in governorships in 2018. The only question is how much closer they can come to achieving parity. At 33-16-1, they would need to gain several more statehouses than a reasonable observer would deem possible. However, a shift of half a dozen is probably within their reach. Today’s projections, in fact, show them earning six takeovers of chairs currently held by Republicans. Only a massive blue wave would get them the rest of the way.
Latest Polls As always, you can check out all the latest polls here at Election Projection.