Home  Blog  Election Polls  President 2012  Senate 2012  House 2012  Governors 2012  GOP Primaries 2012  Redistricting 2012  Formulas  Results  About me


 

 
         
    "The Blogging Caesar at Election Projection is one of the web's best prognosticators" - Hugh Hewitt

2012 Projections

President
Senate
House
Governors



Election Projection cannot screen all advertisements appearing here.  Therefore, I do not necessarily endorse the products and/or services shown.


Archives

April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
November 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
November 2004
October 2004
September 2004
August 2004
July 2004
June 2004
May 2004
April 2004
March 2004
February 2004
January 2004
December 2003

  Politics and Elections
Thursday, January 21, 2010
Looking ahead in the wake of Brown's victory, part 2
Senate:  Yesterday, I took a look at the landscape in the House and what Scott Brown's victory means for the 40-seat Democratic majority there.  Clearly, control of the House is within reach for the GOP if current voter unrest persists until November.  But what about the Senate?  That's a much fiercer Lion to slay.  If we look simply at the 31% swing between President Obama's 26-point margin in 2008 and Scott Brown's 5-pointer on Tuesday, a whole bunch of senate seats come into play.  Arkansas, Colorado, Delaware, Illinois, Nevada, North Dakota and Pennsylvania become GOP blowouts.  And California and Connecticut move into GOP territory.  So does Gillibrand's seat in New York - especially if George Pataki runs.  But the 31% tsunami would not stop there.  Seats like Oregon, Washington, even Indiana and Hawaii (if Linda Lingle runs), would be hard-pressed to stand up under that kind of movement away from the Democratic senators occupying those seats.

That's 14 seats, 4 more than the GOP needs to take back the Senate.  Yes, I know, many of these races, unlike Massachusetts, will feature incumbents who will undoubtedly outperform one Martha Coakley, but the way the voters spoke in the Bay State on Tuesday, I don't believe any of these seats can be deemed completely safe.  That said, do I think the GOP will win the Senate in November?  No ... but it is not outside the realm of possibility if everything goes right for red team.

Obamacare:  Even though Nancy Pelosi announced today that the votes aren't there in the House to pass the Senate's version of Obamacare, I don't believe Brown's 41st vote and the stinging message it brings are enough to stop the Democrats from pursuing other avenues.  In the moments following the call for Scott Brown on Tuesday night, I listened to Juan Williams on Fox News.  His opinions on the ramifications of the election result found little concurrence among the others on the panel, but I felt he was right on.

Williams believes the Obama/Pelosi/Reid triumvirate will not let the Massachusetts Miracle deter them from driving Obamacare into law at all costs.  Rather than yielding to the obvious and overwhelming will and desire of the people, he asserted that they will use every measure to get health care passed.  Fighting against protests around the table, he explained why.  The Democratic leadership will refuse to face voters in November having done essentially nothing of substance to fulfill the great promise they felt Barack Obama's presidency represented.  They will wager their collective political futures to bring home the "accomplishment" of Obamacare.

I see and agree with the point he makes.  But I'll take it a little further.  Rather than choosing Obamacare over nothing as a condemned prisoner might choose a noose over starvation, they are resolved to give salesmanship and spin another opportunity to save them.  November is still a long way off, and the American electorate has proven its short attention span many times over.  If they pass Obamacare, they and their agents in the mainstream media will have 10 months to tout that all Americans now have health insurance, 10 months to produce juiced up numbers showing how they did it without extending the national debt, 10 months to paint Republicans as ogres and monsters for wanting to "take away" health insurance from the very ones who need it the most and can afford it the least.

For sure it will be a risky play, they probably reason, but it beats the alternative.  If they reach November empty-handed, they will have conceded utter defeat, leaving dozens of congressional seats to be swallowed up in the red tsunami now well-developed across the nation.  Those are the only options they see.  Give up now and lose everything, or try a Hail Mary passage of health care hoping they can convince us to catch it in the end zone when November rolls around.  Unfortunately for them, their liberal elitist minds are blind to the best play they have - work with Republicans to reform health care in a way that will be healthy for America, for her society, her economy and her liberty.



<< Previous Politics and Election News Next >>


Special Thanks To:

Charlie Cook
Cook Political


Congressional Quarterly
CQ Politics


D.C. Finegold Sachs
DC's Political Report


Dave Leip
U.S. Election Atlas


David Wissing
The Hedgehog Report


Larry Sabato
Crystal Ball


Richard & Tony
The Green Papers


Rose Institute
Redistricting in America


Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
RealClearPolitics

Election Projection Resources
 
EP's RSS Feed

RSS Feed  RSS
Search this site

provided by Google
Contact Me

e-mail Scott at:
electionprojection-at-
gmail <put a period here> com
 

©Copyright 2003-2013 Scott Elliott, All Rights Reserved