Election Projection

The original election projection website, since 2003

PRESIDENT

GOP   231   -75
DEM   307   +75
SENATE

GOP   53   even
DEM   45   even
HOUSE

GOP   203   +3
DEM   232   -2
GOVERNORS

GOP   27   +1
DEM   23   -1
2020 ELECTIONS ON DEMAND
PROJECTIONS
POLLS
Election Day
November 3, 2020

2020 California 48th District Election

Who is winning the California 48th District election?
 
All California Races

Preliminary Projection:  Democrat +3.5, Weak DEM Hold
Updated January 24, 2020

Commentary

The Candidates

California 48th District Election 2020 - Harley Rouda vs. ???
Democrat
Harley Rouda
Incumbent		 Republican
undetermined
Incumbent:  Democrat Harley Rouda is seeking re-election in 2020.
Republicans
  • Brian Burley
  • James Griffin
  • John Schuesler
  • Michelle Steel - Orange County Supervisor
Democrats
  • Harley Rouda - Incumbent
Others
  • Richard Mata (American Independent)

Projection Data

Preliminary Projection:  Harley Rouda by 3.5%
Pundit Predictions
PunditDateRating
Charlie CookAugust 02, 2019Rouda +4 (Lean DEM)
Larry SabatoAugust 05, 2019Rouda +4 (Lean DEM)
Inside ElectionsAugust 16, 2019Rouda +4 (Lean DEM)
Click here for all California 48th District Pundit Ratings
No polls available for this race.
Projection Calculations
MetricRaw ValueWeightNet Value
Adjusted pundit ratings3.5100%3.5
Head-to-head pollsn/a0%n/a
Composite GenericDifferenceOffsetAdjustment
January 24, 2020 - details 2.04.00.5
Projection History
DateProjectionOld RatingNew Rating
January 08, 2020Rouda +4.9Mod DEM HoldWeak DEM Hold
January 02, 2020Rouda +5.1Weak DEM HoldMod DEM Hold
November 19, 2019Rouda +4.9Mod DEM HoldWeak DEM Hold
November 16, 2019Rouda +5.0Weak DEM HoldMod DEM Hold
September 18, 2019Rouda +4.6Mod DEM HoldWeak DEM Hold
September 11, 2019Rouda +5.6Weak DEM HoldMod DEM Hold
September 06, 2019Democrat +4.9Mod DEM HoldWeak DEM Hold
Preliminary----Mod DEM Hold