Election Projection

The original election projection website, since 2003

PRESIDENT

GOP   231   -75
DEM   307   +75
SENATE

GOP   53   even
DEM   45   even
HOUSE

GOP   198   -1
DEM   237   +2
GOVERNORS

GOP   26   -1
DEM   24   +1
2020 ELECTIONS ON DEMAND
PROJECTIONS
POLLS
Election Day
November 3, 2020

2020 California 48th District Election

Who is winning the California 48th District election?
 
All California Races

Preliminary Projection:  Democrat +4.3, Weak DEM Hold
Updated October 15, 2019

Commentary

The Candidates

California 48th District Election 2020 - Harley Rouda vs. ???
Democrat
Harley Rouda
Incumbent		 Republican
undetermined
Incumbent:  Democrat Harley Rouda is seeking re-election in 2020.
Republicans
  • Brian J. Burley
  • Christopher Michael "Chris" Engels
  • Daniel Rice
  • Michelle Park Steel
  • Caleb Samuel Sturges
Democrats
  • Harley Rouda - Incumbent
  • Hans Keirstead

Projection Data

Preliminary Projection:  Harley Rouda by 4.3%
Pundit Predictions
PunditDateRating
Charlie CookAugust 02, 2019Rouda +4 (Lean DEM)
Larry SabatoAugust 05, 2019Rouda +4 (Lean DEM)
Inside ElectionsAugust 16, 2019Rouda +4 (Lean DEM)
Click here for all California 48th District Pundit Ratings
No polls available for this race.
Projection Calculations
MetricRaw ValueWeightNet Value
Adjusted pundit ratings4.3100%4.3
Head-to-head pollsn/a0%n/a
Composite GenericDifferenceOffsetAdjustment
October 15, 2019 - details 5.05.00.3
Projection History
DateProjectionOld RatingNew Rating
September 18, 2019Rouda +4.6Mod DEM HoldWeak DEM Hold
September 11, 2019Rouda +5.6Weak DEM HoldMod DEM Hold
September 06, 2019Democrat +4.9Mod DEM HoldWeak DEM Hold
Preliminary----Mod DEM Hold