The original election projection website, since 2003
| Republican Dana Rohrabacher Incumbent |
Democrat Harley Rouda Challenger |
| Pundit Predictions | ||
|---|---|---|
| Pundit | Date | Rating |
| Charlie Cook | July 18 | Toss-up |
| Larry Sabato | June 28 | Toss-up |
| Inside Elections | September 28 | Rouda +2 (Tilt DEM) |
| Click here for all California 48th District Pundit Ratings | ||
| Latest Polls | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firm | Dates | Rouda | Rohrabacher | Spread |
| EP Poll Average | 45.0 | 47.0 | Rohrabacher +2.0 | |
| NY Times/Siena | 10/29 - 11/4 | 46 | 45 | Rouda +1 |
| Thomas Partners (R) | 10/31 - 10/31 | 42 | 51 | Rohrabacher +9 |
| Click here for all California 48th District Polls | ||||
| Projection Calculations | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Raw Value | Weight | Net Value |
| Adjusted pundit ratings | 2.3 | 50% | 1.2 |
| Head-to-head polls | 2.0 | 50% | 1.0 |
| Composite Generic | Difference | Offset | Adjustment |
| November 6, 2018 - details | 7.3 | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Projection History | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Projection | Old Rating | New Rating |
| November 05, 2018 | Rouda +0.1 | Weak GOP Hold | Weak DEM Gain |
| November 03, 2018 | Rohrabacher +0.7 | Weak DEM Gain | Weak GOP Hold |
| July 20, 2018 | Rouda +1.0 | -- | Weak DEM Gain |
| Important Dates | |
|---|---|
| Event | Date |
| Filing Deadline | March 9, 2018 |
| Primary Election | June 5, 2018 |
| Election Day | November 6, 2018 |
| California Polling Hours | ||
|---|---|---|
| Time Zone | Polls Open | Polls Close |
| Pacific | 7:00am Local | 8:00pm Local |