|Averages:||Trump +2.7||Clinton +4.3||Clinton +7.0|
|CBS News||Trump +1||Clinton +6||Clinton +7|
|CNN/ORC||Trump +3||Clinton +9||Clinton +12|
|LA Times/USC||Trump +4||Trump +2||Clinton +2|
Seven points is quite an improvement. However, we must remember that the ‘before’ numbers are at the height of Trump’s bounce. A more useful perspective spans both conventions, and that’s what I do in the second table. To qualify for this dataset, polling firms must have conducted a Trump vs. Clinton poll in the week or so before the GOP Convention and then again after the close of the Democratic Convention. Six such firms meet that criterion, and they show Clinton did win the bounce gain, but not by as much as in the previous example. Her lead before the RNC, according to these six polls, was 0.7%. Now, it is 4.2%, a bump of 3.5%. And that figure represents, as closely as polls can do, the true convention bounce as calculated over both conventions.
|Polling firm||Before RNC||After DNC||True Bounce|
|Averages:||Clinton +0.7||Clinton +4.2||Clinton +3.5|
|Economist/YouGov||Clinton +4||Clinton +3||Trump +1|
|LA Times/USC||Trump +1||Trump +2||Trump +1|
|CBS News||Tie||Clinton +6||Clinton +6|
|CNN/ORC||Clinton +7||Clinton +9||Clinton +2|
|NBC News/Survey Monkey||Clinton +1||Clinton +8||Clinton +7|
|Rasmussen||Trump +7||Clinton +1||Clinton +8|
These conclusions, of course, do not arise from an exact science. There are plenty of forces at work that may be affecting the numbers outside of the conventions – such as Trump’s travails after stepping into it regarding the Khan family. And other polls are still to be conducted by firms not included in this table. That said, I think Clinton +3.5 is probably a pretty good assessment of how the two nominees emerged from their conventions. Another important aspect of this to remember is that the DNC followed the RNC, and, therefore, Clinton’s standing is fresher in the minds of voters. As a result, some additional settling (ie: tightening) in the race is likely in store as we move away from the fervor generated by the conventions.