As each election develops, the electoral landscape changes. Some races, once highly anticipated, become yawners, while others rise unexpectedly to the top of the excitement meter. Since Election Projection covers all presidential, senate and governor races, such ebbs and flows don’t change the races tracked here. House races present a different calculus, however. With 435 seats up for grabs every two years, it would be too much work for one man to track all of them. Instead, I settle on a chosen few races that are expected to be competitive. That’s where shifting forces impact which races you’ll find detailed on this website.
I recently re-evaluated the House races and identified four additional contests that merit inclusion on my competitive House race list. Three of them are currently held by Republicans and one by a Democrat. The new tracked races are California CD-24, a Democratic seat left open by Lois Capps retirement, California CD-25, currently held by Republican Steve Knight, Florida CD-7, Republican John Mica’s seat, and Minnesota CD-3, defended by Republican incumbent Eric Paulsen.
Of the four, John Mica will have the toughest time avoiding an incumbent party defeat. Democrat Stephanie Murphy is giving him quite a battle in a race that is quickly moving in her direction. The other three races are on the list, but they probably won’t flip without a significant wave. With these additions, EP is now tracking 37 competitive race in the House. A large majority, 29, are held by Republicans; only eight reside on the blue side of the aisle.