The original election projection website, since 2003
| Republican Peter Meijer Nominee |
Open Seat | Democrat Hillary Scholten Nominee |
| Pundit Predictions | ||
|---|---|---|
| Pundit | Date | Rating |
| Charlie Cook | October 20, 2020 | Toss-up |
| Larry Sabato | June 02, 2020 | Meijer +4 (Lean GOP) |
| Inside Elections | October 16, 2020 | Toss-up |
| Click here for all Michigan 3rd District Pundit Ratings | ||
| Latest Polls | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firm | Dates | Scholten | Meijer | Spread |
| EP Poll Average | 45.0 | 45.5 | Scholten +0.5 | |
| Strategic National | 10/15 - 10/17 | 46 | 46 | Tie |
| DCCC (D) | 10/7 - 10/9 | 47 | 42 | Scholten +5 |
| Click here for all Michigan 3rd District Polls | ||||
| Projection Calculations | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Raw Value | Weight | Net Value |
| Adjusted pundit ratings | 0.3 | 50% | 0.2 |
| Head-to-head polls | 0.5 | 50% | 0.3 |
| Composite Generic | Difference | Offset | Adjustment |
| November 3, 2020 - details | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 |
| Projection History | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Projection | Old Rating | New Rating |
| October 29, 2020 | Scholten +0.4 | Weak GOP Gain | Weak DEM Gain |
| September 11, 2019 | Republican +0.2 | Weak DEM Gain | Weak GOP Gain |
| September 11, 2019 | +0.3 | Weak GOP Gain | Weak DEM Gain |
| September 06, 2019 | Republican +0.4 | -- | Weak GOP Gain |
| Preliminary | -- | -- | Weak GOP Gain |