Donald Trump continues to eat away at Hillary Clinton’s lead in the Electoral College. In Florida, the aggregate average of five polls released in September give him an extremely narrow 0.2-point lead.The Sunshine State switch brings 29 new electoral votes to Trump’s column, reducing the projected Clinton victory to 294-244. It must be said, however, that even though this is the best position Trump has been in this year, Hillary still maintains a solid lead. In order to overtake her, he’ll need to flip at least two more states. North Carolina is the most likely candidate. Wisconsin, Nevada and Pennsylvania remain potential pickups, with Virginia and New Hampshire hanging around as well. Of course, if Hillary were to reclaim any of the states she has recently fallen behind in, Trump path to victory would become much more challenging. Moreover, she remains a threat to pickup red 2012 electoral votes in states like Georgia and Arizona.
Finally, more GOP-favorable generic preference data has moved another House seat from the DEM gain category back to GOP hold. New York CD-22 is no longer projected to go to the Democrats. Overall, this party switcher reduces the projected Democratic gain in the House to 16 net seats.