The original election projection website, since 2003
| Republican John Katko Incumbent |
Democrat Dana Balter Nominee |
| Pundit Predictions | ||
|---|---|---|
| Pundit | Date | Rating |
| Charlie Cook | October 3 | Katko +4 (Lean GOP) |
| Larry Sabato | October 25 | Katko +4 (Lean GOP) |
| Inside Elections | October 26 | Katko +4 (Lean GOP) |
| Click here for all New York 24th District Pundit Ratings | ||
| Latest Polls | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firm | Dates | Balter | Katko | Spread |
| EP Poll Average | 42.0 | 49.0 | Katko +7.0 | |
| Siena | 10/18 - 10/22 | 39 | 53 | Katko +14 |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | 7/26 - 7/28 | 47 | 43 | Balter +4 |
| Click here for all New York 24th District Polls | ||||
| Projection Calculations | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Raw Value | Weight | Net Value |
| Adjusted pundit ratings | 2.4 | 50% | 1.2 |
| Head-to-head polls | 7.0 | 50% | 3.5 |
| Composite Generic | Difference | Offset | Adjustment |
| November 6, 2018 - details | 7.3 | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Projection History | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Projection | Old Rating | New Rating |
| October 30, 2018 | Katko +4.7 | Mod GOP Hold | Weak GOP Hold |
| September 20, 2018 | Katko +5.7 | Weak GOP Hold | Mod GOP Hold |
| August 30, 2018 | Katko +4.9 | Mod GOP Hold | Weak GOP Hold |
| August 28, 2018 | Katko +5.4 | Weak GOP Hold | Mod GOP Hold |
| August 21, 2018 | Katko +4.3 | Mod GOP Hold | Weak GOP Hold |
| July 20, 2018 | Katko +6.3 | -- | Mod GOP Hold |
| Important Dates | |
|---|---|
| Event | Date |
| Filing Deadline (Federal, Primary) | April 12, 2018 |
| Primary Election (Federal) | June 26, 2018 |
| Filing Deadline (State) | July 12, 2018 |
| Filing Deadline (Federal, Independent) | July 31, 2018 |
| Primary Election (State) | September 11, 2018 |
| Election Day | November 6, 2018 |
| New York Polling Hours | ||
|---|---|---|
| Time Zone | Polls Open | Polls Close |
| Eastern | 6:00am Local | 9:00pm Local |