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FL Gov: After a surprising victory last week in the Florida Democratic primary, gubernatorial candidate Andrew Gillum is now making noise in the general election race. The first poll of the season shows him leading Republican Ron DeSantis by 2 points. Since the only other polls testing this race are quite old, Election Projection’s evaluation of it swings in favor of the blue team. Get the details on the Florida Governor Race page.
With this flip, the projected balance of power among statehouses turns a significant corner. Democrats are now projected to hold a majority, 26-24, once the votes are counted. A major shift of 11 chairs are projected to move into their column, while just 1 is projected to move in the opposite direction. (Republicans are also projected to win the Alaska statehouse currently held by Independent Bill Walker.)
Generic preference polls: Since individual races are often moved by local and unique circumstances, perhaps the best measure of election waves is the generic congressional preference poll. Democrats have held a clear advantage in this metric all year, but lately it has moved even further in their direction. Two new polls, included in today’s update, give generic Democratic candidates 11-point and 13-point leads over their Republican counterparts. As a result, the generic offset, which I apply to the projection for each competitive House race, has increased to 2.1. That number is added to each race’s pundit ratings and polls calculation. While the offset has increased, it does not result in additional projected seats for Democrats. However, it does move several races dangerously close to their tipping points.
Today, the projected Democratic net gain stands at +36, 13 more than necessary to gain control of the House. Check out the current outlook on the 2018 House Elections summary page. There you can see which 6 red seats are less than a point away from turning blue.