Trump projection: 1,280 delegates
Delegates above the majority mark: 43
Updated through the April 26 primaries.
April 27, 2016: With Donald Trump’s devastating victories in last night’s primaries, he has broken the Stop-Trump-O-Meter. It’s hard to envision a scenario where he is unable to secure the requisite 1,237 delegates needed for the nomination. The race is all but over. Trump will be the GOP nominee.
April 20, 2016: Last night’s near sweep for Donald Trump in the New York Primary was a much better outcome for him than the Meter had planned. New York is classified (dubiously) as a closed proportional state. As such, the Meter said Trump would win just 38 delegates. Of course, the classification method the Meter employs failed to take into account the winner-take-all nature of New York’s 27 district-level vote and the 50% winner-take-all threshold for the statewide vote – not to mention the fact that New York is Trump’s home state. Therefore, the dial moves toward Trump’s smiley face by 52 slots. Next week, it promises to move further in that direction as we go through a slate of 5 more mostly Trump-friendly states.
April 6, 2016: Since the Stop-Trump-O-Meter said Trump would take the 42 delegates in yesterday’s Wisconsin primary, Ted Cruz’s near sweep moves the Meter’s dial away from the 1,237 delegate majority. However, that good news for those of us who don’t want Trump as the nominee may be short-lived. Most of the states coming up in April are looking very good for The Donald. And some of them are states which will defy the Meter’s metrics. New York, for example, is a closed quasi-proportional state for Republicans. The Meter established that Trump will win 40% of the delegates from such states. Obviously, New York is going to be fertile ground for hometown boy Trump. He has a good chance of winning as much as 80%-90% of the delegates there. Connecticut is a similar situation coming up on April 26. Looking beyond April, it is clear that, even with Cruz’s great performance last night, in order to keep Trump from outperforming the Stop-Trump-O-Meter, he’ll have to improve his poll numbers in the remaining states.
March 23, 2016: Last night’s results were favorable to Donald Trump. He won Arizona and all its 58 delegates when the Meter said he’d lose there. On the other hand, the Meter forecast him winning 40% of Utah’s 40 delegates, but Cruz’s blowout win there helped him earn all the delegates in Utah. Taken together, these two states result in Trump gaining a net 43 delegates against the Meter’s expectations. So, his projected total in today’s update moves to the right a bit. The Meter says he’s still below the 1,237 delegate mark, but he’s closer to it now than he was yesterday.
March 17, 2016: Recent polls have shown Trump doing very well in states I give to someone else in this example. That being the case, I will be revising the assumptions in Trump’s favor soon, keeping in place the objective of the Meter: Illustrating how Trump can be stopped from getting the delegate majority before the convention. (Update: I’ve decided to let my original assumptions ride and adjust the current projected delegate count according to results as they come.)
March 14, 2016: Not long ago, just before the primary elections on March 8, I posted an article mapping out a scenario which would leave Donald Trump with 1,172 delegates heading into the Republican National Convention in Cleveland on July 18-21. That total would be 75 delegates short of a majority. I have not concealed my opposition to a Trump nomination in my 2016 presidential election coverage, and continue to feel that Trump would be a terrible choice for Republicans as the nominee and, win or lose in the general election, for our nation.
As a recap, here are the metrics I put in place to arrive at the initial numbers: Open Proportional Contests: Assume Trump wins 60% of the delegates
Closed Proportional Contests: Assume Trump wins 40% of the delegates
Open Winner-take-all Contests: Assume Trump wins all these contests (including Ohio).
Closed Winner-take-all Contests: Assume Trump wins FL, MP, DE, MD, NJ and loses AZ, PA, NE, CA, SD.
|All Open Proportional*
MI, MS, NC, RI
|All Closed Proportional*
HI, ID, DC, UT, NY, CT, OR, WA, NM
|All Open Winner-Take-All*
IL, MO, OH, WI, IN, MT
|All Closed Winner-Take-All*
Trump wins: FL, MP, DE, MD, NJ
Trump loses: AZ, PA, NE, CA, SD
VI, GU, WY, AS, ND, WV
** Beginning delegates include all delegates won before the nominating contests on Mar 8.